GROWTH AREAS FOR IOT AND IMPACT ON FD SOI

Transcription

1 GROWTH AREAS FOR IOT AND IMPACT ON FD SOI APRIL 13, 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. 632 Industrial Way Los Gatos CA 953 USA (fax)

2 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES BACKGROUND Has been in business for over 28 years Previous experience in managing 15+ engineers at Rockwell International, which included avionics, communications, and semiconductors, and strong emphasis on communications Interface with most global leaders in electronics industry, with customers in U.S., Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, India, etc Interface and support for major global corporations such as Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sony, Toshiba, Apple, Cisco, Huawei, IBM, Fujitsu, Canon, NEC, Hitachi, Renesas, TSMC, STMicroelectronics, TI, ARM, Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor Graphics, Seagate, Globalfoundries, SMIC, NXP Semiconductors, and others Interface and support for financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Blackstone, CitiGroup, Warburg Pincus, Walden, KKR, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, Bain Capital, Bank of America, TPG, and others Participated with French government on their advanced technology initiatives Involved with advanced technology concepts, price-sensitive platforms for smartphone and other high-volume platforms, and high-performance infrastructure companies on global basis Strong expertise in China. Published two books on China: China s Globalization (How China Becomes No. 1) and Chinamerica (McGraw Hill). Wall Street Journal, Economist, New York Times, Forbes blog contributor, China Daily articles, Global Times editorials, EE Times, etc Involved in number of due diligence projects on number of IPOs Support for strategic initiatives for number of global technology leaders HAS HIGH MARKET SHARE ON TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY BUSINESS 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 2

3 Semiconductor Market SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET BY PRODUCT $64B $598.6B $48B $337.1B $337.6B $367.6B $387.5B $49.1B $433.5B $46.5B $49.6B $523.7B $559.6B MPU MCU DSP Standard Cell ASIC FPGA Special-Purpose Logic $32B General-Purpose Logic Display Driver Analog $16B MOS Memory Other Semiconductor $B GROWTH IS DRIVEN BY INCREASE IN GB PRICES OF DRAM AND NAND SLOWING GROWTH IN SMARTPHONES 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 3

4 IOT ECOSYSTEM Cloud with Big Data Infrastructure High-Performance Processors and Large Storage Capacity Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Data Analytics Connectivity Licensed Spectrum (LTE-M, NB-IoT, and 5G) Unlicensed Spectrum (Sigfox and LoRa) Local Data Processors Smart Data Dumb Data Sensors Fitness Trackers, Smartwatches, Automotive, Drones, Medical, and Logistics IOT IS ABOUT MONETIZATION OF DATA 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 4

5 IOT PERSPECTIVE IoT devices include fitness trackers, smartwatches, smart cameras, connected smart cars, etc Autonomous driving is in high growth mode and requires very high-performance processors as well as low costs Smartwatches and other wearable devices have not reached expected growth because their battery lifetime is too short and user interface is not intuitive Sensors are key building block functions and include image sensors and MEMS Sensors are also important part of IoT signal chain ISP functionality will be important building block function in many IoT applications Vision processing will be area of very high growth potential Need high performance and very low power consumption Need technology that can support RF, mixed-signal functionality, and envm Technology will also need to be low cost Security represents key part of IoT ARM Trust Zone is widely adopted Software value will be higher than hardware value for most IoT applications IOT IS PART OF BIG DATA ECOSYSTEM, WITH DEEP LEARNING AND AI 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 5

6 Number of Connected Devices in Semiconductor Market (MU) NUMBER OF CONNECTED DEVICES 8, 74,826 67,25 6, 53,347 6,26 47,15 4, 35,841 41,317 3,746 25,97 21,557 2, 8,83 11,339 14,327 17, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NUMBER OF CONNECTED DEVICES IS 74B+ IN 225 MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 6

7 Data Traffic (EB) INTERNET DATA TRAFFIC 5,4 4, ,6 3,98.4 Video 1,8 1, , IoT Gaming Image Sharing File Sharing Media Voice Other GROWTH IS HIGH BASED ON DATA BECOMING ASSET THAT HAS HIGH VALUE IF EFFICIENTLY MANAGED 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 7

8 PROCESSORS, CONTROL, AND CONNECTIVITY Mobile computing Processors (MU) 1,84 1,91 2,2 2,9 2,16 2,27 Growth rate (%) NA Control and connectivity (MU) 11,8 12,9 13,87 15,1 16,14 18,88 Growth rate (%) NA Consumer electronics Processors (MU) 1,25 1,38 1,51 1,63 1,75 1,86 Growth rate (%) NA Control and connectivity (MU) 9,4 9,9 1,5 11,1 11,9 13, Growth rate (%) NA Enterprise infrastructure Processors (MU) Growth rate (%) NA Control and connectivity (MU) ,15 1,275 Growth rate (%) NA Automotive Processors (MU) Growth rate (%) NA Control and connectivity (MU) 2,85 2,97 3, 3,15 3,28 3,41 Growth rate (%) NA Embedded intelligence Processors (MU) ,1 1,24 Growth rate (%) NA Control and connectivity (MU) 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, Growth rate (%) NA TOTAL 49,61 53,775 57,869 62,31 66,823 73,336 Processors (MU) 3,89 4,245 4,639 4,996 5,353 5,771 Growth rate (%) NA Control and connectivity (MU) 45,72 49,53 53,23 57,35 61,47 67,565 Growth rate (%) NA IOT INCLUDES PROCESSOR, CONTROL, AND CONNECTIVITY 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 8

9 Semiconductor Products Within IoT Devices IC MARKET FOR IOT APPLICATIONS $5B $46.9B $42.1B Analog $4B $37.8B $3B $27.5B $3.5B $33.9B Controllers/ Processors $24.7B $2B $11.8B $13.B $14.3B $15.8B $17.8B $2.1B $22.3B ASSPs $1B Connectivity Memory $B STRONG GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR IOT 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 9

10 Volume of Image Sensor Market (MU) IMAGE SENSOR VOLUME 15, 11,835 1,577 1, 9,318 8,28 Mobile Phone 7,213 5, 4,588 4,837 5,95 5,427 5,866 6,433 Tablet Notebook Computer Digital Still Camera Automotive Other NEED ISP AND HIGH-PERFORMANCE SIGNAL PROCESSING (HPSP) 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 1

11 Relative Revenues from Autonomous Driving (Scale) Performance (TFLOPS) Power Consumption (W) AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AUTONOMOUS DRIVING BY SEGMENTATION PROCESSOR REQUIREMENTS FOR SAE LEVELS 2 1 1TFLOPS X % SLAM 6 8.W W W 35TFLOPS 5 4X 15% 3% Algorithms 2 2.W 3. 1X 5% 5% 2% Processors 1.W 14TFLOPS 75% 2% 35% TFLOPS 1TFLOPS Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5. NEED VERY HIGH PERFORMANCE AND VERY LOW POWER OPTIONS ARE 1/7nm FINFETS OR 12nm FD SOI 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 11

12 SMARTPHONE IMAGING Evolving to be CIS plus ISP+DRAM+algorithms and will be 6.5 billion units in 225 New smartphones include two camera modules for support of segmentation and convergence, which are required for support of AR AR is next area of high growth Need very low power consumption for ISP CIS is very sensitive to heat Sony is market share and technology leader in CIS and is likely to maintain this position Samsung has second highest market share Time-of-flight sensors are in high growth Technology leader is STMicroelectronics TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS ARE 22FDX, 22ULP, AND 22FFL FOR ISP 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 12

13 Volume of AR Units (MU) VOLUME OF AUGMENTED REALITY DEVICES U.S NEXT BIG GROWTH SEGMENT OF SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET China Other 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 13

14 28nm Wafer Volume (KU) 16/14nm Wafer Volume (KU) 1/7nm Wafer Volume (KU) WAFER VOLUME TRENDS 4, 28nm 16/14nm 1/7nm 4, 4, 3, 2,622 2,597 2,787 2,951 3,18 3,259 3,397 3,517 3,577 3,616 3,627 3, 3, 2,563 2,987 3,49 2,244 2,153 2, 2,15 2, 2, 1,788 1,548 1,58 1, 1,196 1, 1, ,5 1,14 1,26 1, 1,75 1, nm WILL BE IN HIGH VOLUME FOR MANY YEARS 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 14

15 Mainstream Design Cost $7M DESIGN COST $619.7M $525M Validation Prototype $446.1M $35M $357.7M Software $175M $M $224.7M $13.2M $7.1M $29.M $41.6M 65nm 45/4nm 28nm 2nm 16/14nm 1nm 7nm 5nm Physical Verification Architecture IP Qualification LARGE INCREASE IN DESIGN COSTS, WHICH LIMITS NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS IN ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 15

16 Foundry Market TAM for 22nm FD SOI Foundry Market TAM for 22nm FD SOI Products FD SOI TAM TAM 22nm FD SOI FOUNDRY TAM FOR 22nm FD SOI PRODUCTS $2B $5B $17.6B $16.4B $16.9B $17.3B $17.6B $17.8B $17.7B $17.6B $17.5B $44.1B $41.1B $42.2B $43.2B $43.9B $44.4B $44.3B $44.B $43.6B $4B $15B 28nm $3B 28nm $1B $2B $5B 22/2nm $1B 22/2nm 16/14nm 16/14nm $B $B FD SOI IS WELL POSITIONED FROM PERFORMANCE, POWER CONSUMPTION, AND RF CONNECTIVITY 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 16

17 CONCLUSION Decision processes at 28/22nm for IoT applications involve following: 22FDX 22ULP 22FFL Need to evaluate power consumption, performance, chip costs, and long-term migration path for various application segments Decision processes at 16/14/12nm involve following: 12FDX 12FFC 14nm FinFET 1nm FinFET 7nm FinFET Will require determination of product lifecycle costs as well as chip costs FD SOI TECHNOLOGY CAN PROVIDE BEST COMBINATION OF FUNCTIONALITY FOR WIDE RANGE OF HIGH-VOLUME APPLICATIONS 217 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-SOISYMP SLIDE 17