Integrating conflict analysis in drought risk management: Some hints from the Mediterranean area

Transcription

1 Integating conflict analysis in dought isk management: Some hints fom the Mediteanean aea Raffaele Giodano Wate Reseach Institute National Reseach Council, Italy Macela Bugnach Iene Pluchinotta Faculty of Engineeing Technology, Univesity of Twente, The Nethelands LAMSADE - CNRS, Univesité Pais Dauphine, Fance Rottedam, 10 may 2016 Dought and poblem faming System boundaies Decisions Decisions Decisions Infomation Rottedam, 10 may

2 Dought and poblem faming Memoy Expeiences Expectation Behaviou Definition The way dought is defined influences a stakeholde's expectation of futue dought, and leads stakeholdes to adopt diffeent behavious and to act o eact in diffeent ways duing a dought phenomenon conflicts. Dought isk management in the context Goal Policy Context Goal of the othes Ecology of action As soon as an individual takes an action, whateve that action may be, it begins to escape fom his intentions. The action entes into the univese of inteactions and in the end, it is the envionment that seizes it in the sense that it can become the opposite of the initial intention. E. Moin, On Complexity Actions of the othes 2

3 Dought isk management in the context Dought isk management policies failues occu because they do not match the peculiaities of the contexts in which they ae implemented Densely amified netwok of inteactions (COMPLEXITY) that happen among actos with diffeent poblem fames (AMBIGUITY) What othe decision-actos involved in the netwok ae going to do is lagely unknown, making difficult to pedict whethe the choices pay off o not (UNCERTAINTY) Dought isk management in the Apulia Region THE CASE STUDY The egional wate authoity poposed the enfocement of estictive measues in the use of goundwate in case of dought The new legislation caused stong conflicts between fames, the egional authoity and the iigation consotium due to the expected economic damages to the agicultual secto. Due to this conflicting situation, the Wate Potection Plan has not been implemented yet, and the egional authoity is caying on a time consuming evision pocess. This wok aims at investigating how ambiguity affected the policy implementation. 3

4 Dought isk management in the Apulia Region THE DECISION AGENTS Agent name Role Type M wt M wp F R Wate Manage Consotium of Capitanata (technical side) Wate manage Consotium of Capitanata (political side) Fames Regional Authoity Technician (middle level) Selle (middle level) Uses (Low level) Contolle (high level) Oganization Oganization Individual Oganization Dought isk management in the Apulia Region THE METHODOLOGY Decision-actos undestanding of the inteaction space Decision-actos undestanding of the system dynamic (Mental Model of Dynamic System) Ambiguity analysis Leaning pocess 4

5 THE INTERACTION SPACE IS = < A, O, R, S > Fomal stuctue to descibe the system of inteactions within a finite set of actos. o 1 o 2 o 3 o 4 o 5 o 6 o 7 o 8 Objects Actos Resouces Envionmental potection a 3 Regional Authoity 2 Legislative constaints and egulations a 1 Iigation consotium 1 Economic esouces (wate pice) Agicultual 3 Infomation flow poductivity 5 Wate accessibility a 2 Fames 6 Illegal actions 8 Yield Effectiveness of the a iigation wate 1 Iigation consotium 1 Economic esouces (wate pice) 3 Infomation flow management a 3 Regional Authoity 2 Legislative constaints and egulations a 1 Iigation consotium 3 Infomation flow 3 Infomation flow Wate availability a 2 Fames 6 Illegal actions 8 Yield a 3 Regional Authoity 2 Legislative constaints and egulations Decease of a 3 Regional Authoity 2 Legislative constaints and egulations goundwate a oveexploitation 1 Iigation consotium 1 Economic esouces (wate pice) 7 Technical esouces 1 Economic esouces (wate pice) 2 Legislative constaints and egulations Wate distibution and a 1 Iigation consotium 3 Infomation flow contol of the iigation 4 Decisional powe netwok 7 Technical esouces a 2 Fames 7 Technical esouces 6 Illegal actions Reduction of wate 4 Decisional powe consumption duing a 1 Iigation consotium dought 7 Technical esouces Env., econ. and social 2 Legislative constaints sustainability of the a 3 Regional Authoity agicultual activities 9 Contol of the teitoy THE DECISION-ACTORS UNDERSTANDING OF THE INTERACTION SPACE (A) Reg,1 (O) Reg,1 (R) Reg,1 (A) Reg,2 (O) Reg,2 (R) Reg,2 actos actos objectives actos esouces actos actos objectives actos esouces < A, O, R, S > Reg a 2 o a 1 o 6 7 Fames Agicultual poductivity Wate accessibility Yield Iigation consotium Wate distibution and contol of the iigation netwok Technical esouces < A, O, R, S > I (A) I,1 actos a 2 Fames (O) I,1 actos objectives o 4 o 2 Agicultual poductivity Wate availability (R) I,1 actos esouces 3 Infomation flow 8 Yield (A) I,2 actos a 3 Regional Authoity (O) I,2 actos objectives o 1 Envionmental potection (R) I,2 actos esouces 2 Legislative constaints and egulations Regional authoiy Iigation consotium < A, O, R, S > F (A) F,1 actos a 1 Iigation consotium (O) F,1 actos objectives o 6 Wate distibution and contol of the iigation netwok o 7 Reduction of wate consumption duing dought 1 Economic esouces (wate pice) (R) F,1 actos esouces 2 Legislative constaints and egulations 4 Decisional powe 7 Technical esouces (A) F,2 actos a 3 Regional Authoity (R) F,2 actos objectives o 5 Decease of goundwate oveexploitation (R) F,2 actos esouces 2 Legislative constaints and egulations Fames 5

6 THE DECISION-ACTORS MENTAL MODELS OF DYNAMIC SYSTEM (MMDS) Repesenting the peceived cause-effect chains influencing the dynamic evolution of a system THE DECISION-ACTORS MENTAL MODELS OF DYNAMIC SYSTEM (MMDS) Regional authoiy Iigation consotium Fames 6

7 THE AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS Diffeences in IS peception: the Jaccad index Acto J index Distance Analyst Iigation consotium 0,42 0,58 Analyst Fame 0,48 0,52 Analyst Regional Authoity 0,35 0,65 The main diffeences: 1) the iigation consotium neglects the capability of the fames to activate illegal pumping ; 2) the iigation consotium consides the infomation flow as a cucial esouce in the inteaction with fames; 3) the egional authoity ignoes the ole played by the maket; 4) the egional authoity peceives the contol of the teitoy as a cucial esouce to achieve its main goal Diffeences in MMDS: the Model Distance Ratio (MDR)index Regional authoity Iigation Fames Consotium Regional authoity - 0,21 0,90 Iigation 0,21-0,82 Consotium Fames 0,90 0,82 - The main diffeences: 1) The egional authoity peceives the limits to GW as an action to estoe the system equilibium; 2) The egional authoity and the iigation consotium peceive the wate availability as the only dive influencing the system dynamic. THE LEARNING PROCESS The iigation consotium became awae of the impotance of poviding infomation to fames in time to actually influence thei decision pocess. The iigation consotium became awae of the illegal pumping activities, which equies a bette undestanding of the impact of the wate pice policy. The egional authoity intoduced the iigation consotium s ole in influencing the fames behaviou. Acto J coefficients Analyst Iigation consotium 0,64 Analyst Fame 0,53 Analyst Regional Authoity 0,62 7

8 THE LEARNING PROCESS Concluding emaks THE LESSONS LEARNED Decision actos have a limited undestanding of the complexity of the inteaction space. Decision actos tend to neglect the existence of diffeent and equally valid poblem faming they ignoe the ambiguity. In ode to take actions, decision actos make assumptions about how the othes ae going to act and/o eact to thei actions conflicting situation. Collaboative dought isk management claims fo a decision-making envionment in which the paties ae fully awae of thei ole and the oles of the othes in the inteaction envionment (intedependency pinciple). 8