Retail Forecast: Holiday 2018 with Equity Analyst Marie Driscoll

Transcription

1 Retail Forecast: Holiday 2018 with Equity Analyst Marie Driscoll

2 MEET MARIE Equity Analyst, Retail Marie Driscoll is a highly experienced equity analyst focusing on apparel brands, apparel retailers, and luxury goods. She has served in key analytical and business development roles in leading financial research firms. Marie Driscoll DRISCOLL ADVISORS FOUNDER, CHIEF ANALYST & CEO MarieDriscoll.com Marie was recognized three times in The Wall Street Journal s Best on the Street analyst survey, capturing the first place ranking for stock selection in the Clothing & Accessories industry. Marie started Driscoll Advisors late in 2011 providing consulting services to academia, industry, investors and nonprofits. She is a columnist for the ICSC s VRN and IOJ, The Robin Report, and an industry consultant at Fung Global Retail & Technology.

3 A Brief History of U.S. Holiday Retail Spending seasons were strong Experienced more than three percent annual year-over-year retail sales growth Result was five consecutive strong holiday seasons across the industry

4 Current State of the Consumer and the Economy The consumer is healthy...so is the economy Consumer sentiment and confidence are at 18-year highs Employment is nearly full Stock market is strong 16 consecutives quarters of GDP growth

5 Prevedere Retail Leading Indicator Prevedere Retail Indicator is decelerating The consumer is weakening Wage gains are being matched by inflation Personal savings are low interest, rates are rising Global economy Dollar is strengthening, but potential trade wars could drive prices for imports higher anyways Shortage of imports Still projecting year-over-year growth for the retail holiday season Consumer should stay strong enough through 2018 Could be the slowest holiday retail sales growth in five years

6 Prevedere Retail Leading Indicator A composite of proven economic factors that predict retail demand Prevedere Retail Leading Indicator Retail Sales Total (Excluding Food Service) Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Source: Prevedere

7 Prevedere Retail Leading Indicator A composite of proven economic factors that predict retail demand Prevedere Retail Leading Indicator Retail Sales Total (Excluding Food Service) Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Source: Prevedere

8 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR RETAILERS 1. Meet customers where they are...everywhere. 2. Wake them up! 3. Give exclusives. 4. Black Friday is optional.

9 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR RETAILERS. 1. Meet customers where there are everywhere. Retailers need to increase their investment in marketing and meet their customers wherever they are: Social Media In-store Online At events Everywhere Each channel needs to have a story that fits the medium. Most retailers have optimized their strategy, but personalization, localization and on-demand offerings have never been more important. Marie Driscoll DRISCOLL ADVISORS FOUNDER, CHIEF ANALYST & CEO

10 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR RETAILERS 2. Consumers are numb Wake them up! Consumers in the U.S. have had a business-as-usual mentality. Retailers need to find innovative ways to excite and engage them. This could be a pop-up shop strategy at the mall or even at a concert series or festival. If a customer unexpectedly meets a retailers in a place they hang out it will grow brand affinity and engage them. Marie Driscoll DRISCOLL ADVISORS FOUNDER, CHIEF ANALYST & CEO

11 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR RETAILERS 3. Don t give away everything to Amazon or partners Give exclusives. Retailers should diversify their offering based on channel. Too many are making the mistake of putting everything on Amazon and can t understand why their store is empty. Keep your best products in your stores or on your website. It will stop them from being devalued and competing on price. Marie Driscoll DRISCOLL ADVISORS FOUNDER, CHIEF ANALYST & CEO

12 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR RETAILERS 4. Losing money on Black Friday, but making it up in volume, is optional. Competing on price is not just about where you sell products, it s about when too. Black Friday grew out of hand with store openings on Thanksgiving itself, but even with the extra hours and increased doorbusters, many retailers showed limited profit because it became all about competing on price. For some retailers, it s time to follow REI s lead and stay closed for Black Friday. Consumers are starting to respect the values of staying closed. It gives retailers the ability for fewer promotions. Your website is still open! Marie Driscoll DRISCOLL ADVISORS FOUNDER, CHIEF ANALYST & CEO

13 Learn more about the leading indicators that may pertain to your business. Contact Us: (888)