KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014

Transcription

1 kpmg.com/automotive KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Strategies for a fastevolving market and the implications for ASEAN 3 rd Annual South East Asia Automotive Summit Jakarta, 2 April 2014 Andrew Thomson Partner and Deputy COO KPMG Asia Pacific Head of Automotive, Asia Pacific and China Dirk Koehnlein Head of Automotive, KPMG Indonesia

2 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contents About the Survey The market and consumers: the bigger picture Global forces shaping the sector Urbanization Transforming the dealership model Emerging markets Evolving strategies for market success The outlook for ASEAN OEMs position in the future global market place 2

3 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 About the Survey About the study Geographic distribution of respondents Respondents job titles KPMG International s annual assessment of the current state and future prospects of the worldwide automotive industry. 41% 25% 42% 5% 6% 39% Business unit head/ functional head Head of department/ leadership team Business unit functional manager In this year s survey 200 senior executives from the world s leading automotive companies were interviewed. 35% Americas ASPAC EMEA Company category 8% CEO/President/ Chairman Company annual revenues C-level executive 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 23% 10% 25% 30% Vehicle manufacturer (OEM) Tier 1 supplier Tier 2/3 supplier New components supplier, e.g. carbon, e-components Independent dealer OEM captive dealer OEM captive financial services company Non-captive financial services company Auto rental company Mobility solution provider 10% 23% 29% 39% Over US$10 billion US$1 billion US$10 billion US$500 million US$1 billion US$100 million US$500 million Source: KPMG's Global Automotive Executive Survey

4 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contents About the Survey The market and consumers: the bigger picture Global forces shaping the sector Urbanization Transforming the dealership model Emerging markets Evolving strategies for market success The outlook for ASEAN OEMs position in the future global market place 4

5 Key automotive trends up to 2025 EMERGING MARKETS Market growth in emerging markets SELF-DRIVING CARS 85% 14% STANDARDIZATION Increasing use of platforms and standardization of modules 78% 76% ICE OPTIMIZATION Downsizing and optimization of the internal combustion engine (ICE) 69% 61% FUEL CELL E-MOBILITY EUROPEAN PRODUCTION Rationalization of production in Europe and shifting of production to emerging markets The industry continues to be shaped by the emerging markets. There is a sharp decline in the importance of pure battery e-mobility. MOBILITY Mobility-as-a-service 49% CONNECTIVITY Connected car technologies (e.g. car-to-x communication) 49% 57% 59% URBAN VEHICLE Innovative urban vehicle design concepts 59% BATTERY E-MOBILITY FINANCE & LEASING OEM captive financing and leasing Automakers continue to turn their attention to improving ICE efficiency. Note: Percentage of respondents that rated a trend as extremely important or very important Source: KPMG's Global Automotive Executive Survey

6 Markets and consumers - the bigger picture: Consumers choose economy over innovation Factors influencing consumer s purchase decision 92% 79% 79% 7 4% 73% Fuel efficiency Safety innovation Ergonomics and comfort Vehicle styling/ exterior Environmental friendliness 70% 69% 65% 53% 47% Consumers have to choose between their conscience, their wallet and their status. Connected car solutions are gaining importance yearon-year. Enhanced vehicle lifespan Plug-in solutions Percentage of respondents that rated issues as extremely important or very important Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey Vehicle-bound internet connectivity and built-in technologies Telematics/ personal assistance services Use of alternative fuel technologies 6

7 Technology: A broad mix of competing power train technologies Main investments in powertrain technologies over the next 5 years 16% Plug-in hybrid fuel systems 11% Hybrid fuel systems 8% Battery electrified vehicles with range extender 10% 46% 9% ICE downsizing and optimization Fuel cell electrical vehicles Pure battery electrified vehicles Note: Percentage of respondents that chose the technology they plan to invest the most in. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey ICE downsizing assumes a higher priority, while plug-in hybrids are expected to be the most popular e-mobile and set to lead the e-vehicle race. Electric vehicle technology attracting the most consumer demand by % 35% 14% NON-PLUG-IN HYBRIDS (FULL/MILD/MICRO) 1 7% 24% PLUG-IN HYBRIDS FUEL CELL ELECTRICAL VEHICLES BATTERY ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES WITH RANGE EXTENDER BATTERY ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES 7

8 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contents About the Survey The market and consumers: the bigger picture Global forces shaping the sector Urbanization Transforming the dealership model Emerging markets Evolving strategies for market success The outlook for ASEAN OEMs position in the future global market place 8

9 Urbanization: The changing shape of mobility in tomorrow s cities Proportion of consumers that need to own a car (by age group) < 25 years years years > 50 years Less than half of the executives surveyed believe that those under 25 actually need to possess their own car. The result for over-50s is 54 percent. Note: Percentage of respondents that rated their answer as extremely important or very important Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

10 Urbanization: Expected share of on-demand mobility solutions in cities in % of respondents from Japan believe between million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions Expected market share of city inhabitants using mobility services in % 16 25% 6 15% 50% of respondents from Russia believe between million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions 40% of respondents from the US believe between million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions 37% of respondents from Western Europe believe between million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions 55% of respondents from Brazil believe between 8 21 million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions 48% of respondents from China believe between million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions In general, respondents have high expectations for the average number of potential mobility customers in markets around the world. The implications for ASEAN may be significant 33% of respondents from India believe between million city inhabitants will use mobility solutions Note: Expectations of the majority of survey respondents from the respective country Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014; United Nations World Urbanization Prospects. 10

11 Urbanization: OEMs could become pure mobility solution providers When will mobility solutions become an important source of profit Mobility solutions are already a source of profit In 5 years In 10 years In more than 10 years One in seven respondents say mobility solutions are already delivering positive margins, and a further 31 percent expect profits within 5 years. Note: Percentage of respondents that chose the respective answer Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

12 Transforming the Dealership Model: Purchase decisions Factors influencing consumers purchase decisions COMPETITIVE FINANCING OPTIONS BRAND 84% E-COMPONENT FINANCING Financing of e-components (if applicable) 43% 83% 80% 50% RECOMMENDATIONS On the internet/social media 60% WARRANTY OPTIONS 80% 78% QUALITY SERVICE EXPERIENCE During the purchase transaction SERVICING OPTIONS During the vehicle lifespan RESPONSIVENESS TO PRODUCT RECALLS Quick and conscientious responses to product recalls Key Opportunity: Competitive financing significantly influences the consumer purchase decision. Note: Percentage of respondents that rated each topic as extremely important or very important Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

13 Transforming the Dealership Model: Future success Strategies for future success for retailers/dealers 67% SERVICE STATION E.g. bank, insurance, update services 46% 50% 53% 62% PRODUCT TOUCH POINT For internet services CONVENTIONAL RETAILERS CAR RENTAL AND SHARING POOLS Almost half of the Survey s respondents believe that conventional models are getting outdated. CHANGE BUSINESS Totally the survive Note: Percentage of respondents that rated the answer as extremely important or very important Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

14 Transforming the Dealership Model: The rise of online Importance of different dealership models for future success Non dealers 72% 63% 44% 39% Online dealerships and intermediaries Multi-brand dealerships owned by third parties Dealerships will be independent 60% 60% 55% 30% Dealerships will be integrated into the OEM business Online dealerships are set to rise significantly but dealers themselves are less optimistic about it. Dealers Note: Percentage of respondents expecting the importance of each concept to increase Percentage of respondents expecting importance of the respective concept to remain stable or decrease are not shown. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

15 Transforming the Dealership Model: Market maturity requires a greater focus on efficiency Factors influencing dealer profitability LOCATION Good dealership locations FINANCING COSTS AND EQUITY STRUCTURE 75% 95% 75% 95% 80% BRAND Brand performance and multi-branding 95% 90% CONTROLLING AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Effective controlling and dealer management system MANAGING PRICING AND SUPPLY ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE Motivational organizational structure and sales incentives Dealers Place emphasis upon brand performance and multi-branding, but they also want to improve their cost and working capital management to build sustainable profitability. COST AND WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Note: Percentage of dealer respondents that rated the respective answer as extremely important or very important Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

16 Emerging Markets: Where automakers plan to invest Where automakers plan to invest BRIC TRIAD 64% 59% 40% 44% 30% 26% 19% 11% 8% 9% China India Brazil Russia South Africa Turkey Indonesia Vietnam Colombia Egypt 73% 65% 58% 55% 43% 34% 34% 31% 26% 26% Note: Percentage of respondents that plan to begin or increase their investment in each country Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey BRIC automakers are more likely than their TRIAD peers to raise their investment levels in every major emerging market. 16

17 Emerging Markets: BRIC manufacturers are avoiding Western Europe and North America Areas of greatest potential growth for BRIC manufacturers (besides their domestic 19% markets) up to % Western Europe Eastern Europe Russia 39% 2% North America China India 21% South East Asia 16% Brazil Africa and the Middle East 1% Oceania South America Note: Percentage of respondents believing that this area has the greatest potential for BRIC manufacturers (excluding the BRIC's own domestic markets) Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

18 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contents About the Survey The market and consumers: the bigger picture Global forces shaping the sector Urbanization Transforming the dealership model Emerging markets Evolving strategies for market success The outlook for ASEAN OEMs position in the future global market place 18

19 Evolving strategies for market success Ranking 2014 Ranking 2013 Business strategy Percentage 1 3 Organic growth 84% Expansion of the value chain and diversification Corporate partnerships (JVs and partnerships) Cooperation with players from converging industries 77% 77% 76% Automakers are refocusing from joint ventures and partnerships towards independent growth. 5 4 Outsourcing of (non-)core activities 55% 6 5 Mergers and acquisitions 50% Note: Percentage of respondents that rated the strategy as extremely important or very important Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

20 Evolving Strategies for Market Success: Technology leadership is key to survival (1/2) Perceptions of leading automotive companies RENAULT NISSAN GROUP 75% 25% BMW 75% 26% TESLA VOLKSWAGEN GROUP CHERY GENERAL MOTORS TATA (INCL. JLR) TOYOTA HYUNDAI/KIA BRILLIANCE-JINBEI DONGFENG DAIMLER AVTOVAZ 57% 56% 74% 72% 68% 68% 65% 64% 64% 64% 63% 27% 29% 32% 33% 36% 36% 36% 37% 37% 43% 44% Product/technology driven 7 of the top 10 companies considered to be technology/ product driven, are from TRIAD markets. HONDA 56% 45% BYD 53% 47% FORD 52% 48% Product/technology driven Brand driven Note: Percentage of respondents that consider each company to be product/technology driven or brand driven Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

21 Evolving Strategies for Market Success: Technology leadership is key to survival (2/2) Perceptions of leading automotive companies FAW 49% 51% BAIC 49% 51% MAHINDRA GROUP 49% 52% FIAT GROUP (INCL. CHRYSLER) GREAT WALL MOTOR PSA CHANGAN SAIC SUZUKI 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 46% 52% 53% 53% 54% 54% 55% Brand driven BRIC manufacturers are not yet perceived as top technology leaders. JIANGHUAI AUTOMOTIVE 44% 57% GEELY 43% 57% MITSUBISHI 41% 59% MAZDA 37% 64% FUJI HEAVY/SUBARU 36% 64% ISUZU MOTORS 34% 67% Product/technology driven Brand driven Note: Percentage of respondents that consider each company to be product/technology driven or brand driven Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

22 Evolving Strategies for Market Success: Likelihood of retaining independence (1/2) Expected strategies for survival BMW 78% 12% 10% VOLKSWAGEN GROUP 73% 19% 8% TESLA 61% 24% 15% HYUNDAI/KIA TOYOTA TATA (INCL. JLR) CHERY NISSAN SAIC RENAULT DONGFENG FORD BYD 56% 54% 52% 48% 45% 44% 43% 42% 42% 39% 33% 37% 37% 37% 38% 35% 36% 45% 46% 46% 8% 9% 14% 17% 11% 11% 24% 22% 22% 16% Strong correlation between technological leadership and the ability to remain independent. GENERAL MOTORS 38% 39% 24% DAIMLER 37% 35% 29% BAIC 36% 45% 20% Remain independent Strengthen alliances Merge with other OEMs Note: Percentage of respondents believing that the company has to adopt this strategy in order to survive Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

23 Evolving Strategies for Market Success: Likelihood of retaining independence (2/2) Perceptions of leading automotive companies AVTOVAZ 36% 49% 16% CHANGAN 35% 54% 12% BRILLIANCE-JINBEI 33% 50% 17% MAHINDRA GROUP 32% 46% 22% GEELY 32% 47% 22% GREAT WALL MOTOR 32% 47% 22% MITSUBISHI 32% 45% 24% SUZUKI 31% 43% 27% FAW 30% 53% 17% PSA 28% 36% 36% HONDA 27% 44% 30% FIAT GROUP (INCL. CHRYSLER) 22% 30% 48% JIANGHUAI AUTOMOTIVE 22% 48% 30% ISUZU MOTORS 17% 36% 48% MAZDA 16% 36% 49% FUJI HEAVY/SUBARU 14% 40% 47% Remain independent Strengthen alliances Merge with other OEMs Note: Percentage of respondents believing that the company has to adopt this strategy in order to survive Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

24 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contents About the Survey The market and consumers: the bigger picture Global forces shaping the sector Urbanization Transforming the dealership model Emerging markets Evolving strategies for market success The outlook for ASEAN OEMs position in the future global market place 24

25 The Outlook for ASEAN: Growth, winners and losers ASEAN-5 LIGHT VEHICLE FORECAST Sales volumes Country Indonesia 794,813 1,014,016 1,114,265 1,165,971 1,293,577 1,417,207 1,538,604 1,646,740 1,751,454 1,846,044 1,938,988 Malaysia 596, , , , , , , , , , ,181 Philippines 163, , , , , , , , , , ,018 Thailand 773,986 1,402,808 1,286, ,427 1,078,149 1,205,804 1,279,985 1,336,493 1,376,622 1,412,379 1,448,644 Vietnam 119,101 81, , , , , , , , , ,178 ASEAN-5 2,447,954 3,303,778 3,360,140 3,182,596 3,451,693 3,751,787 3,986,284 4,191,070 4,377,573 4,547,652 4,718,009 Source: LMC Automotive TOP TEN BRANDS IN ASEAN-5 Make Volumes Market Share Toyota 1,068,630 1,084,802 32% 26% Honda 374, ,761 11% 13% Mitsubishi 252, ,342 8% 9% Isuzu 224, ,780 7% 5% Suzuki 224, ,321 7% 7% Nissan 220, ,305 7% 6% Perodua 196, ,337 6% 4% Daihatsu 187, ,320 6% 6% Proton 140, ,855 4% 4% Ford % 4% Source: LMC Automotive 25

26 The Outlook for ASEAN: Key issues and challenges Negative 1. Infrastructure development 2. Political and economic instability 3. AEC timing and execution 4. Competing priorities for foreign investment 5. Rising wages 1. GDP growth Positive 2. Emerging middle class and rising disposable incomes 3. Shift from 2-wheel to 4-wheel 4. Greener vehicles, e.g. LCGC 5. Mobility solution opportunities 6. Components and supply chain 26

27 The Outlook for ASEAN: KPMG s latest thought leadership focusing on Indonesia 27

28 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contents About the Survey Market and consumers: the bigger picture Global forces shaping the sector Urbanization Transforming the dealership model Emerging markets Evolving strategies for market success The outlook for ASEAN OEMs position in the future global market place 28

29 OEMs position in the future global marketplace Potential future shape of the automotive industry There will be a strong differentiation between premium car manufacturers, and mass-volume manufacturers business models 17% 22% OEMs will establish a holistic approach by providing all production and service New players with no traditional auto industry presence (e.g. Apple) will become key players 49% 58% OEMs' business model will remain unchanged 77% OEMs will become pure mobility solution providers 81% OEMs will lose overall expertise for vehicle development due to stronger supplier involvement Note: Percentage of respondents rating the answer as extremely likely and very likely Source: KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey

30 Thank You

31 KPMG s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2014 Contacts GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONTACTS REGIONAL CONTACTS Global Head of Automotive Mathieu Meyer KPMG in Germany MathieuMeyer@kpmg.com Global Executive, Automotive Magdalena Simonji-Elias KPMG in Germany msimonjielias@kpmg.com Asia Pacific (and China) Andrew Thomson KPMG in China andrew.thomson@kpmg.com Global Automotive Marketing Martha Collyer KPMG in Canada mcollyer@kpmg.ca Global Automotive Dominik Staiger KPMG in Germany dstaiger@kpmg.com Indonesia Dirk Koehnlein KPMG in Indonesia dirk.koehnlein@kpmg.co.id Indonesia David East KPMG in Indonesia david.east@kpmg.co.id ASPAC Executive, Automotive Daisy Jia KPMG in China (Shanghai) daisy.jia@kpmg.com 31

32 kpmg.com/socialmedia 2014 KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.