How do we realize breakthroughs?

Transcription

1 How do we realize breakthroughs? Eiichi YAMAGUCHI Doshisha University Kyoto, Japan ITEC International Conference 2011 Overcoming Two Ends Kyoto, March 04, / 20

2 The First End: Japan s Industrial Model # of Papers from Japanese Companies # of Papers in Japanese Applied Physics of Japan (March Meeting) Year Total Number

3 The Second End: Moore s Law 10 3 Silicon dioxide Gate length / nm The end of Moore s law = 2020 p-silicon n-silicon 10 0 Electrons behave as waves Source Gate Drain n-silicon Atom size

4 CONTENTS 1. Error in Christensen s Argument 2. Paradigm Disruptive Innovation 3. Case Study: Blue LEDs 4. Case Study: ARM 5. General Theory for Breakthroughs

5 What is Innovation? Management innovation (Business model) Innovation is every reform act to accomplish the creation of economic values and social values. = Invention Innovation Aisthesis innovation Technology innovation

6 Disruptive Innovation by Christensen Product Performance Performance demanded at the high end of the market Disruptive technological innovation Progress due to sustaining technologies Performance demanded at the low end of the market Def.1: Intentionally decrease the performance. Def.2: Discover new market taking over the main. Time After Innovator s dilemma by Christensen

7 Paradigm Disruptive Innovation Transistors were disruptive technologies relative to vacuum tubes. Introduction, P. xvii, The innovator s dilemma. Performance disruptive Performance sustaining -Thin film head / MR head (Ferrite head) -Smaller HD drive (Larger HD drive) -Transistor (Vacuum tube)

8 Paradigm Disruptive Innovation -Transistor (Vacuum tube) -MOSFET (Transistor) -HEMT (MOSFET) -Blue LED / LD (all other LED / LD) Paradigm disruptive Performance disruptive Performance sustaining -Thin film head / MR head (Ferrite head) Paradigm sustaining -Smaller HD drive (Larger HD drive) -Transistor (Vacuum tube)

9 CONTENTS 1. Error in Christensen s Argument 2. Paradigm Disruptive Innovation 3. Case Study: Blue LEDs 4. Case Study: ARM 5. General Theory for Breakthroughs

10 New Concept: Innovation Diagram!!! Knowledge Embodiment (Development) A (Technology) Deduction S (Existing Knowledge) Abduction P (Created knowledge) Soil Management Innovation / Aisthesis Innovation Knowledge Creation (Research)

11 Breakthrough Type 1 Knowledge Embodiment (Development) Deduction A (Existing Technology) S (Existing Knowledge) A (Paradigm Sustaining Innovation) Induction Abduction A* (Paradigm Disruptive Innovation) ASPA*= Breakthrough Type 1 P (Created Knowledge) Field of Resonance Soil Managerial Innovation / Aisthesis Innovation Knowledge Creation (Research)

12 Breakthrough Type 1 Knowledge Embodiment (Development) Deduction A (Existing Technology) S (Existing Knowledge) A (Paradigm Sustaining Innovation) Induction Abduction A* (Paradigm Disruptive Innovation) ASPA*= Breakthrough Type 1 P (Created Knowledge) Field of Resonance Soil Managerial Innovation / Aisthesis Innovation Knowledge Creation (Research)

13 CONTENTS 1. Error in Christensen s Argument 2. Paradigm Disruptive Innovation 3. Case Study: Blue LEDs 4. Case Study: ARM 5. General Theory for Breakthroughs

14 New generation semicond. Bandgap and atomic distance for semicond. Bandgap (energy of emitted light) / ev infrared ultraviolet GaN SiC AlN 2 InN AlP GaP GaAs Si ZnS AlAs InP Ge InAs 2.5 Atomic distance / A emittable non-emittable ZnSe ZnTe AlSb GaSb InSb Wavelength of emitted light / µm

15 Knowledge embodiment Business model 15 / 20 Paradigm sustaining innovation Existing technology for LED (IR and red) Science (crystallography) ZnSe LED Nakamura: descend to the Soil. /1989 Innovation diagram: Blue LED Akasaki: Challenge to latticemismatched crystal growth (paradigm disruption). / 1970s All major farms withdrew / Nakamura: Realize GaN growth (GaN buffer method. /1991 Nakamura & Amano & Akasaki: Realize GaN growth (AlN buffer method) /1985 Nakamura: By 2 flow method /1990 ~ 200B$ light industry / 2020 Ogawa (CEO of Nichia Corp.): Decide to invest /1993 Iwasa: Realize p-gan (Anneal method)./1991 Amano & Akasaki: Realize p-gan (LEEBI method). /1988 Akasaki: Challenge to p-type GaN growth. Shimizu et al.: Realize White LED / 1996 Nakamura et al.: Develop InGaN LED /1992 Nakamura et al.: Integrate three. Matsuoka et al.: Realize InGaN growth. /1989 Soil Matsuoka et al.: Challenge to InGaN growth. Knowledge creation

16 CONTENTS 1. Error in Christensen s Argument 2. Paradigm Disruptive Innovation 3. Case Study: Blue LEDs 4. Case Study: ARM 5. General Theory for Breakthroughs

17 History of MPU by Hitachi and ARM Hitachi - SH Mobile (Low power consumption) ARM - ARM 11 (2008) SH 4 (32bit RISC : for Sega Dreamcast) - SH 3 (32bit RISC : for Windows CE) - SH 2 (32bit RISC : for Sega Saturn) - SH 1 (32bit RISC :modify H32) - H32 / 500 (most advanced 32bit CISC) - H32 / 200 (for TRON) - Micro 32 (upper-compatible to M68000) - ARM 6 (32bit RISC: for Apple Newton) - ARM founded with Apple & VLSI - ARM 3 (32bit RISC, Low power consumption) - ARM 2 (32bit RISC) - ARM 1 (32bit RISC) - Acorn acquired by Olivetti - Acorn by Hermann Hauser et al.

18 Extension of Innovation Diagram Knowledge Embodiment (Development) Deduction A (Existing Technology) S (Existing Knowledge) A (Paradigm Sustaining Innovation) Induction Abduction A* (Paradigm Disruptive Innovation) ASPA*= Breakthrough Type 1 P (Created Knowledge) Field of Resonance Soil Managerial Innovation / Aisthesis Innovation Knowledge Creation (Research)

19 Sub-space of Knowledge Embodiment Deductive Thinking A (Higher speed and function) Barrier between technology disciplines B (Focus on cell phone) Breakthrough Type 2 A (32bit RISC) B (Focus on lowering power consumption) transilient Thinking

20 In fact, Christensen s disruptive innovation Deductive Thinking A (Higher memory Barrier between value network B (for smalller PC) Breakthrough Type 2 A (Hard disk drives) B (Lower memory, portable) Transilient Thinking toward Aisthesis Innovation

21 CONTENTS 1. Error in Christensen s Argument 2. Paradigm Disruptive Innovation 3. Case Study: Blue LEDs 4. Case Study: ARM 5. General Theory for Breakthroughs

22 General Theory for Breakthrough Knowledge Embodiment (Deduction) B Road-mappable Type 0 B A (Paradigm Sustaining Technology) A (Existing Technology) A 2 * A* (Paradigm Disruptive Technology) Type 1 Field of Resonance Type 2 S P 2 P Type 3 Transilience Knowledge Creation (Abduction) Soil