The Greatest Generation: The Greatest Energy Shifters. How Seniors Fare with TOU Rates

Transcription

1 The Greatest Generation: The Greatest Energy Shifters. How Seniors Fare with TOU Rates Jordan Folks, Research Into Action, Portland, OR 36 th PLMA Conference, Cambridge, MA, November 15, 2017

2 Disclaimer The information provided and views expressed in this presentation are those of Research Into Action and do not represent the California Time of Use Working Group, electric investor-owned utilities (IOUs), and California Public Utility Commission (CPUC).

3 CPUC TOU Pilot Customers will be defaulted onto TOU rates in 2018 Under CA legislation, CPUC ordered IOUs to conduct pilot studies of TOU rate designs (Decision ) Public Utility Code Section 745 requires IOUs to ensure that any default TOU rate schedule does not cause unreasonable hardship for senior and economically vulnerable households in hot climate regions. Opt-in TOU Pilot customers (N=~55,000) RCT approach: customers randomly assigned to control (~1/3) or treatment rate (~2/3)

4 Opt-In TOU Pilot: Is There Hardship? CPUC tasked three electric IOUs to assess TOU rates effects on customers economic and health outcomes Particularly interested in assessing for vulnerable segments: Low Income customers (California Alternate Rates for Energy [CARE] or Family Electric Rate Assistance [FERA]) Seniors living in hot climate zones (only tested on select TOU rates) Does hardship vary by? IOU TOU rate design Climate Segment

5 Links between TOU Rates and Hardship Economic Hardship Health Impacts

6 Survey and Analytical Methods

7 TOU Pilot Timeline Customers recruited to participate in the Pilot with a $100 bill credit, and bill protection during the first year June/July 2016 First customer survey fielded June to August 2017 End of the Pilot Summer/Fall 2015 Start of the Pilot and customer bill protection Oct. to Dec End of bill protection Second customer survey fielded December 2017

8 Mixed-Mode Census Survey Approach 44,558 respondents out of 55,269 customers in the Pilot (82%) Response rates ranged from 67% to 96% across customer segments Customers received a $50, $75, or $100 bill credit for completing the survey

9 Hardship Metrics Economic hardship (0-10 scale) Factor analysis informed metric based on: General economic outlook (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau s Financial Well-Being Questions) Problems Paying Bills Alternative Ways Used to Pay Bills Concern for Bill Payment Health hardship (Y/N) Of those that have AC and a disability that requires cooling, whether or not they required medical attention due to excessive heat in home since participating in pilot

10 Statistical Comparisons Across RCT Groups Economic index score: Calculated average score for each region/segment/rate group Compared Control group to Rate groups using two-tailed t-tests Health metric: Calculated proportion of respondents who reported medical event(s), a disability, and air-conditioning Compared Control group to Rate groups using two-tailed z-test

11 Hardship Results

12 PG&E s TOU Rates Have No Effect on Economic Index Scores Economic Index Score Hot Seniors Hot CARE/FERA Hot Non-CARE/ FERA Control TOU Rate 1

13 No Effect for SCE TOU Rates 1 and 2 Either Economic Index Score Hot Seniors Hot CARE/FERA Hot Non-CARE/FERA Control TOU Rate 2

14 For SCE, only Rate 3 resulted in higher economic hardship, for hot region CARE/FERA Rate 3 has a more complex schedule and is more burdensome than Rates 1 & 2, and will not be used in the default 5.0 Economic Index Score * Hot CARE/FERA Hot Non-CARE/FERA Control Rate 1 Rate 2 Rate 3

15 Small Percentages of Customers with AC Reported One or More Medical Events PG&E + SCE 12% 6% 4% Hot Seniors Hot CARE/FERA Hot Non-CARE/FERA

16 No Significant Difference in Health Hardship on Default Rates PG&E SCE Has AC & disability: % reporting medical event[s] 17% 16% 25% 24% 19% 14% 16% 16% 18% 26% 13% 9% Hot Seniors Hot CARE/FERA Hot Non-CARE/FERA Hot Seniors Hot CARE/FERA Hot Non-CARE/FERA Control TOU Rate 1 (PG&E) or 2 (SCE)

17 Did Find Health Hardship for SCE CARE/FERA Has AC & disability: % reporting medical event[s] 18% 32%* 26% 30%* Hot CARE/FERA Control Rate 1 Rate 2 Rate 3

18 Why no effect on seniors in hot climates? Survey data suggest that senior households may be better able to shift their use during peak hours Seniors rate their ability to shift usage in the afternoons/evenings as significantly easier than non-senior households Seniors reported fewer key barriers to shifting use Barriers to reducing or shifting electricity usage in the afternoon and evenings (PG&E) Seniors Non-seniors My household already uses very little electricity 31% 27% My home gets uncomfortable if I try to reduce electricity usage 23% 31% Nothing keeps me from shifting my usage 23% 15% Working from home makes it difficult to use less electricity 5% 11% My schedule doesn t allow me to reduce my usage 4% 18% Child(ren) in household make it difficult to change our routines 4% 24%

19 Seniors More Likely to Shift Use Senior households in hot climates reported significantly more frequent attempts to shift their usage in afternoon and evenings: Increased thermostat temperature Avoided doing laundry Avoided running dishwasher Avoided running spa or pool pump Avoided cooking Turned off lights not in use Turned off office equipment Pre-cooled home by running AC earlier in day

20 However, Not Willing To Give Up AC or TV Only two actions that senior households in hot climates were significantly less likely to do: Turning off air conditioning during the afternoon and evening Turning off entertainment systems during the afternoon and evening

21 Load and Bill Impacts

22 Load Impacts Nearly all customer segments had significant peak period load reductions and a majority of segments had significant net decreases in daily usage during the summer months PG&E Customer Segments (Hot Region, Rate 1) Peak Load Reductions Net Daily Usage Decreases Seniors 7% 2% CARE/FERA 3% 1% Non-CARE/FERA 9% 3% SCE Customer Segments (Hot Region, Rate 2) Peak Load Reductions Net Daily Usage Decreases Seniors 4% 1% CARE/FERA 3% 1% Non-CARE/FERA 4% 2%

23 Bill Impacts All TOU customer segments had significantly higher total bill impacts, especially those in the hot region Customer Segments (Hot Region) PG&E (Rate 1) SCE (Rate 2) Seniors $20 $36 CARE/FERA $17 $28 Non-CARE/FERA $24 $36

24 Sneak Peak (get it?) Preliminary 2017 Survey Results TOU customers appear to be getting good at shifting their usage Few customer segments experienced hardship 6-8 months later Again, no increased hardship for seniors In fact, most significant differences revealed more hardship for the control group! Our theory: TOU rates may prime and prepare customers to better manage their energy use, and thus mitigate financial and health hardship that could stem from electricity usage management. TOU group demonstrated more know-how, determination, and confidence in their ability to reduce their use TOU group reported taking more actions to reduce use during peak times

25 Conclusions Some initial evidence of economic and health hardship for low-income customers in hot climate zones, yet not seniors Seniors may be uniquely poised to successfully respond to TOU rates

26 Questions Contact: Jordan Folks

27 Appendix

28 Hardship Histograms Histogram of PG&E Economic Index Scores 1, 2 Histogram of Economic Index Scores For PG&E CARE/FERA And Non-CARE/FERA Segments 1, 2 Histogram of Economic Index Scores for PG&E Seniors and Non-Seniors 1,2 Histogram of SCE Economic Index Scores 1, 2 Histogram of Economic Index Scores for SCE CARE/FERA and non-care/fera Segments 1, 2 Histogram of Economic Index Scores for SCE Seniors and Non-Seniors 1,2

29 PG&E Pilot Rates TOU Pilot Rate 1 (Hour Ending) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Off-Peak (30.7 ) Peak (41.0 ) Weekday Winter Off-Peak (26.1 ) Peak (28.0 ) Spring Off-Peak (26.1 ) Peak (28.0 ) Weekend Summer Winter Off-Peak (30.7 ) Off-Peak (26.1 ) TOU Pilot Rate 2 (Hour Ending) Spring Off-Peak (26.1 ) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Partial Peak Summer Off Peak (28.6 ) Peak (43.5 ) (38.3 ) Weekday Winter Off Peak (26.0 ) Peak (28.6 ) Spring Off Peak (26.0 ) Peak (28.6 ) Weekend Summer Winter Off Peak (28.6 ) Partial Peak (38.3 ) Peak (43.5 ) Off Peak (26.0 ) Peak (28.6 ) TOU Pilot Rate 3 (Hour Ending) Spring Off Peak (26.0 ) Peak (28.6 ) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Off-Peak (27.8 ) Peak (55.6 ) Weekday Winter Off-Peak (26.1 ) Peak (28.0 ) Spring Off Peak (25.8 ) Super Off-Peak (17.4 ) Peak (34.7 ) Summer Off-Peak (27.8 ) Weekend Winter Spring Off-Peak (26.1 ) Off Peak (25.8 ) Super Off-Peak (17.4 )

30 SCE Pilot Rates TOU Pilot Rate 1 (Hour Ending) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Super Off-Peak (23.2 ) Off-Peak (27.8 ) Peak (34.8 ) Weekday Winter Super Off-Peak (22.7 ) Off-Peak (22.7 ) Peak (27.3 ) Weekend Summer Winter Super Off-Peak (23.2 ) Off Peak (27.8 ) Super Off-Peak (22.7 ) Off Peak (22.7 ) TOU Pilot Rate 2 (Hour Ending) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Super Off-Peak (17.6 ) Off-Peak (29.1 ) Peak (55.2 ) Weekday Winter Super Off-Peak (17.7 ) Off-Peak (25.5 ) Peak (27.6 ) Weekend Summer Super Off-Peak (17.6 ) Off-Peak (29.1 ) Winter Super Off-Peak (17.7 ) Off-Peak (25.5 ) TOU Pilot Rate 3 (Hour Ending) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Off Peak (16.3 ) Peak (22.6 ) Super On-Peak (37.0 ) Weekday Winter Off Peak (18.3 ) Mid Peak (21.1 ) Spring Off Peak (18.3 ) Super Off Peak (10.0 ) Peak (25.0 ) Weekend Summer Winter Off Peak (16.3 ) Mid Peak (18.7 ) Off Peak (18.3 ) Super Off Peak (10.39 ) Mid Peak (21.1 ) Spring Off Peak (18.3 ) Super Off Peak (10.0 ) Mid Peak (21.1 )

31 SDG&E Pilot Rates TOU Pilot Rate 1 (Hour Ending) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Super Off-Peak (32 ) Off-Peak (38 ) Peak (62 ) Weekday Winter Super Off-Peak (39 ) Off-Peak (40 ) Peak (41 ) Weekend Summer Winter Super Off-Peak (32 ) Super Off-Peak (39 ) Off-Peak (38 ) Off-Peak (40 ) Peak (62 ) Peak (41 ) TOU Pilot Rate 2 (Hour Ending) Tariff Season 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 Summer Off-Peak (36 ) Peak (62 ) Weekday Winter Off-Peak (39 ) Peak (41 ) Weekend Summer Winter Off-Peak (36 ) Off-Peak (39 ) Peak (62 ) Peak (41 )