THE TEAM BEHIND THE DATA

Transcription

1 PRESENTED BY

2 THE TEAM BEHIND THE DATA

3 OVERVIEW We are in a preliminary phase of market inflection. Prices are remaining relatively stable, or in many markets increasing in price, but much more inventory is available than buyers. Buyers remain unconvinced that pricing will not retreat, so they continue to wait. Interest rate movements, and the prospect of continued upward rate pressure from the Fed will move domestic buyers off the bench to buy. The South Florida market is still suffering from continued economic weakness in South America.

4 METHODOLOGY Our two firms collaborated to provide this annual report to foster further dialogue regarding emerging market conditions at the submarket level. We endeavored to provide actionable insight into the direction of these various submarkets without the typical hyperbole or marketing fanfare.

5 LAST YEAR S PREDICTIONS Luxury Market How Deep is it? What will 2016 Hold? Impact of the Condo Market on market psychology Why Downtown Miami is important Where are we today? Where are we going?

6 MIAMI-DADE LUXURY MARKET

7 BROWARD LUXURY MARKET

8 KEY TAKEAWAYS Broward outperformed More Domestic oriented market; better value for $ Miami Dade still did really well; particularly given Q The Clinton-Trump Dilemma 2017 will reinvigorate us or tell us something about the real state of the economy. Most current economic measures suggest a strong 2017 U.S. economy.

9 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (SINGLE FAMILY -WATERFRONT) (-9% AVG.)

10 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (SINGLE FAMILY) NON WF +9% AVG.

11 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (SINGLE FAMILY) WF +4.6%

12 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (SINGLE FAMILY) NON-WF +7.75%

13 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (CONDO) WF -4.2% AVG PRICING

14 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (CONDO) NWF +6.62%

15 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (CONDO) - WATERFRONT- 3.86%

16 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (CONDO) %

17 REVIEW PRICE CHANGE Miami Dade SF Waterfront % Miami-Dade SF Non Waterfront +9.00% Broward SF Waterfront +4.46% Broward SF Non Waterfront +7.75% Miami Dade WF Condos -4.2% Miami-Dade NWF Condos +6.2% Broward WF Condos -3.8% Broward NWF Condos +6.5%

18 2016 MARKET PSYCHOLOGY SNAPSHOT Sellers in the market getting more serious Buyers Concerns Media Reports on Miami and Housing Market generally Economic Conditions (Global mostly); fear Interest rates a new driver 2016 Worries behind us? Business Conditions Stockmarket Presidential Election

19 DOWNTOWN MIAMI CONDO MARKET

20 DOWNTOWN MIAMI CONDO MARKET

21 DOWNTOWN MIAMI CONDO MARKET

22 DOWNTOWN MIAMI TAKE-AWAYS No Bust Imminent (or looming ) Lack of financing will constrain lending, which will make 2017 ground-breakings very difficult Small mixed-use projects in niche markets (Wynwood, Little River?) may start, but unlikely new large-scale projects start until late 2017, early Condo Brokers are frankly panicking, and they are scaring the rest of the market. Some of my colleagues are not helping. The market is otherwise fundamentally solid.

23 WHERE ARE WE HEADING 2017 Product in the sub $300/SF range will remain competitive; product over $450/SF (waterfront mostly) will continue to struggle. The middle-rich are temporarily gone from the market. Ultra- Luxury is still in demand. Core mid range product pricing will be very strong in Global economy got one leg back (Columbia), but IRR predicted that a 2 year global economic recovery is a long-shot; probably 3-5 years+ 2020? 2017 excepting black swan event; will be stronger than 2016 in all segments; pricing retreat in higher segments will continue due to inventory.

24 THINGS TO WATCH FOR Interest Tax Deduction Changes Capital Gains Changes Changes in buying patterns Interest Rate Changes

25 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

26 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

27 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

28 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT +3% Job Growth Gains Most markets are shrinking, or growing at net 1%.

29 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT +5% Households over $75,000 (all segments) Key industry segments are high value-add segments (healthcare, education, finance, insurance, real estate, logistics, international trade, aeronautics.

30 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT +3.2% Graduate Educated Population (5,500 households) South Florida s education strategy paying off Major push for middle and high-school options

31 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT 1% New Housing Creation (% of inventory) This is static growth; what s existing gets more expensive.

32 FINAL THOUGHTS No distress in the market Market fundamentals good On-Going multi-family construction continues; building industry remains robust New Single-Family starts are feasible at current pricing. Major planning; federal infrastructure $$, and strong ties to Tallahassee will be important. All Aboard and Port projects will continue to inject strong secondary construction demand