THE TEAM BEHIND THE DATA

Transcription

1 PRESENTED BY

2 THE TEAM BEHIND THE DATA

3 OVERVIEW Of all the exciting developments in 2015, perhaps the most exciting was how engaged consumers and market players were in trying to decide whether the market could get any better than it was in Would 2015 hold all the same promise as the prior record year? Despite a fairly persistent drumbeat of the media painting a picture of a market bubble, the market did not act bubble-like. In fact, it showed signs of maturity much the same way, and for the same reasons, that the region has matured into a more diversified and vibrant economy.

4 METHODOLOGY Our two firms collaborated to provide this annual report to foster further dialogue regarding emerging market conditions at the submarket level. We endeavored to provide actionable insight into the direction of these various submarkets without the typical hyperbole or marketing fanfare.

5 BIG THEMES Luxury Market How Deep is it? What will 2016 Hold? Impact of the Condo Market on market psychology Why Downtown Miami is important Where are we today? Where are we going?

6 BROWARD LUXURY MARKET

7 MIAMI-DADE LUXURY MARKET

8 KEY TAKEAWAYS Broward lagged Miami-Dade Recovery by months Broward outperformed in 2015 in luxury growth Broward still has no measurable $10 M market Broward inventory is stable Miami Dade $1 - $5 Million segment slowing; more inventory Miami Dade listed inventory in all luxury segments up

9 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (SINGLE FAMILY)

10 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (SINGLE FAMILY)

11 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (SINGLE FAMILY)

12 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (SINGLE FAMILY)

13 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (CONDO)

14 BROADER MARKET MEASURES BROWARD (CONDO)

15 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (CONDO)

16 BROADER MARKET MEASURES MIAMI DADE (CONDO)

17 BROADER MARKET TAKEAWAYS Percentage Sold to Available Inventory is down Irrational Asking Prices holding inventory on market longer All segments have more inventory and fewer sales as percentage of average inventory. Some of this is pricing; but most is demand depth burned off pent-up demand double-digit price increases 2015 Pricing down; Selling market doesn t know it yet

18 MARKET PSYCHOLOGY SNAPSHOT Sellers in the market believe it s a good time to sell Higher (and sometimes unreasonable) asking prices Days on Market (DOM) up 60+ days Buyers Concerns Media Reports on Miami and Housing Market generally Business Conditions Stockmarket Economic Conditions (Global mostly); fear Presidential Election Biggest Impact short-term $1 - $5 Million product (SF) $500K - $1 Million (Condo)

19 DOWNTOWN MIAMI CONDO MARKET

20 DOWNTOWN MIAMI CONDO MARKET

21 DOWNTOWN MIAMI CONDO MARKET

22 DOWNTOWN MIAMI TAKEAWAYS No Bust Imminent (or looming ) 85% of 2016 inventory delivering is pre-sold 73% of all under construction inventory pre-sold (Exc. Flatiron) Very high equity in ownership 78% of new construction closed all cash (2015) 64% of all resale inventory closed all cash (2015) Under Construction Inventory 7,308 units versus 16,000 in 2006 New Development pipeline narrowed significantly in 2015 Key bellweather for media and market psychology

23 WHERE ARE WE HEADING 2016 will be slower (fewer transactions) 2016 pricing will be harder to predict; but will trend low-mid single digits in most markets Unique product and high barrier markets will outperform with fewer buyers Global economy will get some legs back; but 2 year global economic recovery is a long-shot; probably 3-5 years+ Pricing sub $1,000,000 still hot, but inventory expansion will soften this market

24 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

25 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

26 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

27 SOUTH FLORIDA LONG GAME

28 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT +2% Job Growth Gains Most markets are shrinking, or growing at net 1%.

29 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT +5% Households over $75,000 (all segments) Key industry segments are high value-add segments (healthcare, education, finance, insurance, real estate, logistics, international trade, aeronautics.

30 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT +7.5% Graduate Educated Population (7,500 households) South Florida s education strategy paying off 7.5% growth in graduate educated population (7,500 households) Five year growth 12% - 17% in Associate, Bachelor, Graduate educated workforce

31 THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT 1% New Housing Creation (% of inventory) This is static growth; what s existing gets more expensive.

32 KEY TAKEAWAYS Miami-Dade County had (6) single-family submarkets that saw prices reversals; and 38 submarkets which saw year over year gains. The winners outnumbered the losers by 6 to 1, and by appreciation measures, 2015 was a strong year in the Miami Dade Single Family category. Non-waterfront pricing only declined in one community in the single family market. The resale condominium market in Miami Dade did not fare as well, with (10) condo market declines, with (13) markets showing appreciation. Despite a mixed year, Miami Beach hit 12% condo appreciation, and Bay HarbourIsland registered an eye-popping 38% appreciation rate. Broward County had (5) single family submarkets that saw prices reversals,; and 23 submarket which saw year over year gains. The winners outnumbered the losers by almost 5 to 1, although average appreciation trailed Miami-Dade. The resale condominium market in Broward County does not face the same delivery pipeline as Miami, so condo prices held steady with nominal change in pricing. The delivery of the Margaritaville Hotel in Hollywood and a continued price discount over other South Florida waterfront markets, the Lauderdale and Hollywood/Hallandale Beaches condo inventory at $450 - $600/SF still looks inexpensive regionally. Overall luxury trends in both counties indicate prices are stabilizing on the $1 5 Million properties, and fewer total trades means and a higher level of monthly inventory means this luxury segment will be competitive in The market may reach equilibrium for2016 after two back to back years which favored Seller s lofty price expectations. Luxury trends in the $5 - $10 Million properties remains strong with 2015 showing only slightly more inventory, and continued price gains. Broward County only had 1 sale over $27 Million, while Miami Dade registered 22 sales averaging nearly $17 Million. Broward and Miami-Dade continued their march forward, and despite some retrenching of condo resale pricing in downtown Miami, the overall average pricing and velocity was strong. The forward forecast into 2016 is that sellers will see more competition, and buyers will be more selective. Continued economic momentum in the South Florida region, and continued strength in the overall economy will determine the direction of 2016 pricing. Provided construction, finance, and healthcare sectors remain strong, the Miami-Dade and Broward markets will continue their momentum.