Bangor University Transfer Abroad Programme Module Implementation Plan

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1 Bangor University Transfer Abroad Programme Module Implementation Plan MODULE: BUS-221 Quantitative Methods LECTURER: Dr. Francis Jones Level: Year 3 SEMESTER: Fall, 2012 ACTIVITY TYPES:, tutorial, quiz, exam Start Date: Oct 8, 2012 End: Oct 26, 2012 Course Detail: The course introduces students to the basic principles and models of Decision Making Analysis. Some understanding of mathematics, calculus, statistics, and probability will be needed as a pre-requisite or at least a co-requisite. The course will use a combination of lectures, tutorials, group assignments. The text for the course will be Render et al., 2007, Quantitative Analysis for Management 9 th Ed.. Students are expected to be familiar with some basic statistics, which they studied last year. Specifically, they should recall Bayes' Theorem, and Linear Regression Analysis. Students are also expected to be able to produce reports and excel spreadsheets using a computer. Assessment Assessment Assessment Weighting Final Exam % NOTE CAREFULLY. You MUST pass the final exam to pass the course.

2 Week Activity Type Scheduled Contact Hours Activity Details Core Reading + Additional Reading + Practice Material Learning Outcomes Preparation (Oct 11) Introduction to Quantitative Methods for Decision Making 1. quantitative analysis approach 2. decision making 3. selecting models 4. critical thinking 5. Break Even Point & calculations Ch. 1 define a problem, develop a model, test data, develop solution, analyze results. what is a break even point?how to calculate it? What are fixed and variable costs? pp Case, p (Oct 12) 1 hr Cost Accounting. Break even point calculations with multiple products. Spreadsheet and Excel: review of key points formulas conditionals addressing of cells and ranges important functions to know Cost Accounting Not in text. See supplied notes. 1. Be able to perform break even analysis for multiple product lines. 2. Be able to use excel efficiently (Oct 13) (Oct 14) Decision Making 1 hr 1. six steps in decision theory 2. DM environments 3. DM under certainty 4. DM under uncertainty 5. DM under risk EMV calculation Decision tables Decision trees EMV calculation examples Bayes Theory applied to DM i.) steps to decision making Ch. 3 Sect 3.1 to 3.5 Ch Understand the six steps in DM. 2. Be able to describe the types of DM environments. 3. Understand & Calculate EMV 4. Choose appropriate decision methods for uncertainty situations, and do appropriate calculations. 5. Understand the steps in DM. 6. Be able to draw a decision tree. 7. Calculate expected values with probabilities. 8. Make decision under Risk Be able to understand how to use survey history results to determine a priori and a posteriori probabilities. How to use Bayes'

3 ii) iii) Bayes' Theorem Value of Information: how to calculate Decision Making: Bayes Theory applied to DM. What is the value of survey information? theorem to calculate value of survey information (Oct 15) 1. Break even analysis with two products. 2. Decision making: 3.19, 3.24 selftest 3.23, 3.25, 3.26, , , (Oct 18) Forecasting: Introduction to forecasting models i.) using regression models for forecasting ii.) determining which model to use iii.) computing forecasts iv.) interpreting results for DM v) computing different kinds of forecasts Ch Eight steps to Forecasting 2. Types of forecasting models 3. Moving Average, Time Series, Multiple Regression, Correlation Coefficient 4. Calculate and interpret MAD (Oct 19) (Oct 20) (Oct 21) Forecasting: Regression analysis Performing linear regression Interpreting linear regression General Inventory Planning and Forecasting. Economic Order Quantity Stock-out Costs of Inventory: Ordering, Holding, etc. Reorder Point Production Run Model Quantity Discount Model ABC Analysis Ch. 5 self-test Ch to 6.6 Ch , 6.11, Understand what is regression theory 2. Be able to perform regression calculations and interpret the parameters as well as the goodness-of-fit. 1. Understand inventory planning and forecasting 2. Understand ordering costs, stock out costs, over-stock costs, reorder point, safety stock 3. Able to calculate reorder point and costs 4. understand EOQ calculations, model, and assumptions understand production run model understand quantity discount model Understand ABC analysis, JIT, ERP 5.14, 5.17, 5.18, 5.24, 5.25, 5.30

4 (Oct 22) Forecasting selftest 6.17, 6.18, 6.19, 6.20, 6.24, 6.25, 6.35, 6.36, 6.39 (Oct 25) Project Management: PERT & CPM i.) plan, monitor and control projects with PERT ii.) determine timing, slack time, completion time iii.) crashing to reduce project time, CPM iv.) PERT diagram and flowchart Ch Understand how to develop a PERT analysis 2. Be able to draw a PERT diagram 3. Identifying project times and costs 4. Able to crash a project to reduce time using CPM (Oct 26) Project Management: PERT and CPM * MS Project Introduction Ch. 13 Linear Programming 1. what is PERT 2. how to make a PERT chart 3. what is Critical Path Method (CPM) pp pp (Oct 27) (Oct 28) Introduction i.) Requirements for LP problems ii.) formulating and solving a solution set. iii.) graphical solutions to LP problems iv) dummy variables v) use of the Solver Linear Programming Applied to Business marketing manufacturing scheduling finance ingredient blending Ch. 7 Ch Understand the requirements for a LP problem. 2. Assumptions of LP models. 3. How to graph a LP solution (2 variables). Application of LP to specific problems in business. End of chapter self-test pp (Oct 29) Time 13.12, 13.13, 13.18, 13.19, 13.23, Case Study of Southwestern University (p.561). 7.14, 7.18, 7.25, 7.37, 8.4, 8.11, 8.14

5 (Nov 1) Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Ch. 14.1, 14.2, 14.3, 14.4, 14.8, what is a queue 2. what techniques can be used to analyze queues 3. different types of queues 4.calculations of queue characteristics pp , 14.11, 14.14, 14.15, (Nov 2) Review of Week 1. Problems. Ch. 1, 3 + Cost Accounting Notes. Intro to Quant. Methods + Decision Making (Nov 3) Review of Week 2. Problems. Ch. 5, 6. Forecasting + Inventory Control. (Nov 4) Review of Week 3. Problems. Ch.13, 7, 8, 14. Project Management, Linear Programming, Queue Theory. FINAL EXAM 2 hr All the material covered in lectures will be eligible to be examined.