Known and plausible threats

Transcription

1 Module 2, Lesson 1: Known and plausible threats Lesson transcript

2 Frame 1 Welcome to module 2, which is all about scoping out which threats to put into your vulnerability assessment. There are three groups of threats that we need to look at. In this lesson; we re going to look at the first of those groups, we re going to look at the known and plausible threats. Frame 2 So, let s go over what we re going to learn in this lesson. We re first of all, going to recap on why scoping out the threats, that we need to include, is so important. We ll then look at what we need in order to carry out this part of the assessment. through the process of scoping out known and plausible threats. Frame 3 We ll discover what we mean by known and plausible threats, so we re clear on what type of threats we re looking for. And then, we ll go So, let s just recap, why scoping out the threats is so important. Frame 4 Writing a vulnerability assessment from scratch is a daunting task. Being faced with a blank piece of paper is really hard. What do you write? Where do you start? It s easy for this to throw you into a spin and you start to panic.

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4 Frame 5 You start thinking about all the things that could possibly ever go wrong. You start to worry about all the things that you can t possibly control. This normally causes two types of result. 1, you re so paralysed you don t do anything, because you don t know which way to turn, or how to even get started. Or 2, you produce a vulnerability assessment that includes all the threats you could possibly imagine. The threats would be so extreme, that you wouldn t be able to work out how you could control them and you d end up tying yourself in knots. Frame 6 For this reason, a set technique is required. A technique that removes the possible emotion from the process and just picks out the really pertinent threats. This means, just the really important threats that are applicable to your site. We have developed a technique for doing this, which I m going to take you through over this and the next two lessons. This technique looks at three main groups of threats, and allows you to extract just the ones that are pertinent to your site. The groups are from known or plausible threats, threats caused by product claims and then threats that could occur in the supply-chain. Frame 7 Before we go into what known and plausible threats are, we need to gather the information we ll need to do this scoping exercise.

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6 Frame 8 To carry out the scoping exercise to establish which known and plausible threats are applicable to you, you need to have ready a list of all your ingredients. If you have a lot of ingredients, you may wish to group them into groups of similar ingredients. You may already have groups set that are used in other systems, such as your supplier assurance system. If you want to, you can use these same groups to keep it aligned. If you use ingredient codes; include this information in your table of ingredients, for traceability purposes. You ll also need to know the suppliers for each ingredient later, for when we look at supply-chain threats. You may as well gather that information together now too. As well as your ingredient information, you ll need to have your historical information about food fraud threats ready. This information, you ll need to pull from your external sources, that we discussed in the last lesson of module 1. This information should provide a list of food fraud incidents that have happened in the past, based on the ingredients that you use. As well as your external information, your vulnerability team members should be able to provide information from their own previous experiences and learnings about food fraud issues that have happened in the past. Frame 9 So now we ve got all the information together that we need to do the assessment, we need to understand what we mean by known and plausible threats. Frame 10 Let s cover what known threats are first. Here s a short clip of Donald Rumsfeld, who famously defined known knowns, unknown knowns and unknown unknowns!

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8 Frame 11 Although the clip is a bit of fun; what Donald is saying is true in some respect, to threats. There are threats that have happened. So, we know they could happen again. So, these are known knowns. There are threats that although they haven t happened yet, we know that they could happen based on things that have happened before. So, these are known unknowns. And finally, there are threats that haven t happened yet, and we haven t even thought about them yet so we don t realise that they could happen. These are unknown unknowns. Frame 12 As we ve previously discussed; we don t want to include all of the unknown unknowns in our vulnerability assessment, because we could tie ourselves up in knots and not deal with the threats that we can protect ourselves from. It s better to concentrate on the threats we can do something about, rather than worrying about the ones that we can t. Therefore, we re only going to include the known knowns and the known unknowns. Or let s just call them known threats and plausible threats, to make it a bit easier. So; we re just going to include the known threats that we know have previously happened and the plausible threats; which are threats that we could reasonably imagine happening, based on things that have happened before. Frame 13 We now know what known and plausible threats are, so we can now get on with scoping out which ones we need to include in our assessment.

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10 Frame 14 In order to document the known and plausible threats we have provided you with a template to use. This template can be found on your lesson page, just look for the lesson template icon. Click the icon and you ll be directed to a page which shows all the templates. Open up the threat scoping template. Frame 15 When you open up the template it will look like this. We have provided you with a template in Microsoft Word, but you can create it in Excel if you prefer. We ll use this template to document the scoping exercise for all of the threat groups. We ll document the known and plausible threats on here, plus the supply-chain threats and the product claim threats too. For this exercise; we re just going to focus on the first three columns. The raw material group, the raw materials in the group and then the known and plausible threats. Frame 16 For the purpose of going through my examples with you, I ve taken the first three columns only. We can focus just on these to start with. So let s get started, and work through my example. Frame 17 The site in this example produce luxury scotch eggs. I have listed some of the ingredients which are used to produce the scotch eggs. I ve grouped the raw materials where I have been able to do so. For example; where I ve got more than one type of spice, I ve grouped black pepper and nutmeg into one group.

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12 Frame 18 Next; for each raw material group, we need to list the known or plausible threats that apply to that group. You need to do this using your historical information that you ve gathered from either your external information sources, or from the knowledge and experience of the members of your vulnerability team. Go through each group and make a note of the threats that have occurred before. These are the known threats. Then go through the groups again and list the plausible threats, which are threats that could plausibly happen- based on things have happened before. For each threat identified; we will also need to document who supplies this ingredient and if you have raw material codes, it s beneficial to add this too for traceability purposes. Frame 19 For the first group, it is known that olive oil has been diluted with cheaper oils in the past. Therefore, we should add the threat of olive oil diluted with cheaper oils to the table, against the olive oil group. Frame 20 For traceability purposes, we need to add the supplier and raw material code for the olive oil as well.

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14 Frame 21 We then need to do the same for the freerange egg. We know that free-range egg has been substituted with non-free-range egg in the past, so I ve added that as a threat and I ve included the supplier and the raw material code. Frame 22 Frame 23 Here I ve added the threat of substitution or dilution of the minced pork with cheaper cuts of meat. We know that substitution or dilution of minced beef has been an issue in the past, so it s plausible to think that other types of meat could be substituted with cheaper cuts of meat. Especially, when the meat is mincedbecause once it s minced down, you can t tell what the original cut of meat was. For the spices group, we know that spices such as cumin and paprika have been diluted using materials such as nut shells. So, it s plausible to think that black pepper and nutmeg could be diluted in a similar way. So, I ve added that as a threat. Frame 24 And for the final group of breadcrumbs, although we could probably think of a million situations as to how breadcrumbs could be adulterated or diluted, I ve put no known or plausible threats, because, at this time we are not aware of any specific cases.

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16 Frame 25 Frame 26 Before we move on to the exercise, where you will have a go at working through your own raw materials, let s go over what we ve covered in this lesson. By just including known and plausible threats, we can keep the vulnerability assessment focused. We concentrate on the known and plausible threats, to prioritise the pertinent threatswhich are the ones that we can actually protect ourselves from. Known threats are threats that have occurred before. Plausible threats are threats that we can imagine happening, based on what has happened before. Frame 27 To scope out the known and plausible threats you will need, a list of all of your ingredientswhich you can group if you wish. You will also need historical information; you can gather this from your external sources, or from your internal source- which is your team. Frame 28 To complete the scoping exercise for known and plausible threats; we need to work through each ingredient, or group of ingredients, making a note of the known threats. These are threats that have happened before. Then, making a note of plausible threats. The plausible threats, are those that could plausibly happen, based on what has happened before.

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18 Frame 29 Right, now it s your turn! Using the threat scoping template; fill out the first three columns of the raw material group, the raw materials in that group and then the known and plausible threats for each group. Remember, where there are no known or plausible threats, do not feel the need to fill in the box for the sake of it. Just put no known or plausible threats have been identified. Once you ve done this; move onto the next lesson, where we ll go through the claims on pack and work out what threats need to be identified. If you get stuck, you can go back and watch any part this video again, or you can use your lesson guide to refer to. If you get stuck and need assistance, please do not hesitate to get in touch. You can ask us a question by calling us, the phone number at the back of your lesson guide. You can also use the contact lesson teacher button at the top of this page to send a message.

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