EU Telecoms Sector: Regulatory Developments, Threats and. Opportunities
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1 EU Telecoms Sector: Regulatory Developments, Threats and Opportunities Institute of International and European Affairs Dublin, 11 November 2013 Intervention by Mr Luigi Gambardella Chairman of the Executive Board of ETNO Ladies and Gentlemen, I am much honored to speak today in this very prestigious institution. I would like to warmly thank the Institute of International and European Affairs for this kind invitation. Today, I will speak on behalf of ETNO, the European association of Telecom Operators. Before we get started, let me spend a few words on the organization I represent. ETNO s member companies represent world leading telecoms operators and ICT manufacturing providers, accounting for an overall turnover of 600 billion and 1.6 million employees. The job of our association is to foster the interests of the telecoms sector in the Brussels political arena. 1
2 We work to inform the public debate and help policy-makers develop legislation and regulation conducive to more growth and investments in innovative infrastructures and services. Today, I will talk about the regulatory developments which are taking place at the EU level, and how they may affect our sector and the EU digital economy as a whole. I will firstly give an overview of the state of the European telecoms sector, showing that the current regulatory framework is negatively impacting on revenues and cash flows, without incentivising investments in new and improved network infrastructures. Then I will briefly sum up how the EU institutions are addressing this situation by modifying the rules governing the sector. I will focus in particular on the Connected Continent Package, which was adopted by the Commission in September. Finally, I will offer you the perspective of ETNO, both on what is being done by the EU, and on what should be done. I will be more than happy to further discuss these ideas with you during the Q&A session. Let me then start by giving you a picture of the state of our industry. 2
3 Between 2007 and 2011, aggregated revenues of European network operators have shrunk by 8%. As a consequence, Europe s share of the global telecoms market has reduced from 31% to 25%. Moreover, figures for 2012 indicate a revenue drop by 3%. This is not a matter of bad conjuncture. This is a structural negative trend. In fact, Europe s telecoms market is the only market in the world to register a revenue loss. Between 2006 and 2011, the turnover of Asian and North American telecom sectors have been increasing respectively by 72% and 56%. The decline in revenues impacts negatively on investment levels and on the competitiveness of the European electronic communications sector. Europe, once a leader in the technologies that comprise the backbone of the digital economy, is currently lagging behind many markets in Asia and North America. Those same markets in Asia and North America now enjoy fiber access penetration that is up to 20 times higher and penetration of LTE that is as much as 35 times greater than Europe's. As a result, European consumers and businesses experience slower connections, leading to less value and slower economic growth. 3
4 Up to 750 billion in GDP growth and as many as 5.5 million jobs in the economy of the EU are at risk by 2020 because of the lack of next generation network investments. These are the findings of a recently published study by the Boston Consulting Group, which ETNO commissioned in order to contribute to the policy debate. It is grounded upon extensive research and interviews with C-level representatives from European companies. The same study affirms that the causes of this worrisome situation lie in an outdated EU regulatory framework, which does not provide operators with the right incentives to invest, and does not ensure the sustainability of the sector in the long-term. The study estimates that, without significant reforms: 1) the revenues of the European telecommunications sector will continue to contract over the next decade, by up to 2 percent a year, further diminishing investments in next-generation networks; and 2) the shortfall in investment needed to meet EU Digital Agenda targets for broadband coverage and penetration will aggregate, by 2020, between 110 billion and 170 billion, leading to an enormous missed opportunity for the broader EU economy. 4
5 Now, this is where regulation comes into place. The European institutions have recognized that this situation is not sustainable and that it risks having long-lasting consequences on the competitiveness of the European economy as a whole. Over the past months, they have discussed and put in place regulatory measures to address this situation. The Commission has started to work on two different levels. From one side, the focus has been on the implementation of the regulatory framework already in force. On the other side, a proposal for the completion of the Telecoms Single Market has been drafted. On September 11, the European Commission adopted a legislative package, aimed at advancing the completion of the EU Digital Single Market and fostering the European digital economy. The package, which goes under the name of Connected Continent, includes: 1) A draft Regulation laying down measures concerning the European single market for electronic communications and to achieve a Connected Continent. Before becoming law, the Regulation is to be amended and approved by the European Parliament and the Council; 5
6 2) The Recommendation on consistent non-discrimination obligations and costing methodologies to promote competition and enhance the broadband investment environment ; 3) A Communication on the telecoms regulation, explaining the rationale of the measures adopted and providing guidelines for future interventions on the EU Telecoms Regulatory Framework. The main aims of the package are to improve the investment climate, boost development and uptake of broadband, foster regulatory consistency, promote consumer rights and harmonize rules and conditions within the EU market. The draft Regulation is the most complex and important element of the package. Building on the current telecoms regulatory framework, it foresees relevant changes of the rules governing the sector. In particular, it focuses on several key areas: 1) First, it puts in place a single EU Authorization Regime for operators with activities in more than one Member State; 2) Second, it mandates operators to make available new kinds of access products for NGA networks; 3) Third, it seeks to harmonize spectrum assignment across Europe; 4) Fourth, it enshrines Net Neutrality into law, allowing on the other hand telecom operators and content providers to conclude 6
7 agreements in order to provide specialised services with an enhanced quality of service to end users; 5) Fifth, it seeks to harmonize rules on transparency and consumer protection; 6) And finally, it intervenes on intra-eu roaming charges and proposes to regulate international retail fixed and mobile voice calls and SMS within the EU. As for the non-binding Recommendation, it aims to encourage NGA investments across Europe by: 1) Setting out conditions under which NRAs should refrain from imposing cost oriented wholesale access pricing obligations on incumbent operators fibre-based NGA networks. 2) Ensuring equivalent access to the NGA wholesale products for competitors and for the incumbent s retail business alike. 3) Keeping the (cost oriented) prices for copper local loop unbundling at a stable level, according to guide price band of Finally, the accompanying Communication on the Telecommunications Single Market identifies a number of key areas that will need to be addressed by legislators in the coming years, with a view to driving the growth of the EU digital economy. 7
8 Now, the question is: will this package deliver on the promise of fostering growth and investments in the EU telecoms sector? Let s look at each single item of the package separately: The Recommendation represents a meaningful contribution to restore the investment climate in Europe, providing regulatory certainty and predictability. This assessment is shared with conviction by investors and we are very satisfied with that point. Equally, ETNO appreciates the focus of the Communication, and hopes it can provide the guidelines for a much needed further review of the EU Telecoms Regulatory framework, to be undertaken during the next Commission s mandate. When it comes to the draft Regulation, it becomes more complex to formulate a general assessment, as negative provisions coexist with positive ones. The draft Regulation, the cornerstone of the package, even if it foresees relevant changes of the rules governing the sector, often provides new regulation layers instead of simplifying the rules, and fails to provide the strong pro-investment measures that the industry badly needs. Furthermore, measures such as those on roaming and international calls further erode revenues and cash flows in the short term. Although 8
9 they are not seen with great concern by investors, it can be safely assumed that they won t help operators in raising cash for more investments. Some other measures, however, are successful in harmonizing and strengthening the EU telecom rules. This is good. However, it is crucial that harmonization on paper translates into harmonization into practice. For this it will be important that the new rules be adequately implemented by the NRAs. Inadequate implementation at the Member State level is seen as a major possible cause of concern by investors. In the coming months, the draft Regulation will go through its legislative process in both the European Parliament and the Council. We will try to get the best possible outcome from it in order to push as much as possible investors confidence. In addition to reflecting on what is already on the table, ETNO has also started a reflection on what should be done, possibly at the beginning of the next Commission s mandate, in order to decisively pursue the goal of more growth and investments. We believe that an ambitious reform of the current regulatory framework is to be envisaged in line with the main proposals contained in the Boston Consulting study I mentioned before. Such proposals are as follows: 9
10 1) Firstly, we need to move away from sector-specific regulation, enacted at Member State level, and aim for a fully harmonized and substantially reduced pan-european regulatory approach, relying mostly on established competition law. 2) Secondly, we need to put consumer benefits into perspective: industry moves such as mergers must be evaluated with an holistic, longer-term view. Market consolidation, particularly in the mobile segment, should not be seen as a taboo if it leads to more efficiency and investments; 3) Finally, we need regulators to look at the whole value chain: narrow and rigid definitions of networks, services, technologies, and national borders are old and outdated. The new paradigm must embrace a full view of the value chain, leveling the playing field with players such as Over-the-Top providers. On this point, we are only asking that companies providing the same services are subject to the same rules, also as regards to data protection, taxation, and cybersecurity. Today this is not the case. Electronic communications operators are constrained by more stringent rules than their competitors, and this constitutes a huge competitive disadvantage. The fact that the Communication of the European Commission addresses this point is a very positive first step. It means that our 10
11 voice has been heard. Now it is time to turn this commitment into concrete actions. These are our main proposals. The market is clearly signaling that this is the road to follow, in order to achieve investments and growth. Let s take the example of healthy consolidation. Over the past months, investors have started to show some signs of confidence regarding the European telco sector: since June the telco stock index has gone up by 30 %. Many of them have abandoned their negative positions and are ready to become more positive about our industry. It is widely recognized that these signs of confidence are due to positive expectations about a likely new phase of consolidation and a more investment-friendly regulation. The German case is seen as a positive sign, of course depending on approval and remedies to be imposed. The message is clear: change the regulatory framework along the roadmap we are proposing, and the market will positively react. Such a roadmap would pave the way for EU citizens to get the leading global communications networks that they need and want. It would foster an inclusive, vibrant digital economy by generating up to 110 billion in additional investments by 2020 and substantially closing the gap towards meeting the EU Digital Agenda targets. 11
12 Over the next year, we will tirelessly continue to raise our voice in favor of growth and investments. Our big ambition for 2014 is to shape the next Commission s agenda and to be the advocates of the EU telecoms sector in international fora. I am convinced that achieving our objectives will serve the cause of a stronger and more competitive EU economy. Thank you very much. 12
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