Market Research: Whose Your Market and How To Serve Them Better. By Larry E. Lund Real Estate Planning Group Chicago

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1 Market Research: Whose Your Market and How To Serve Them Better By Larry E. Lund Chicago

2 How Demographics and Household Expenditures Affect Food Buying Habits

3 Family Size Declines as Women Enter Workforce Source: BLS

4 Expenditure Share of Non-Necessities Necessities (Necessities: Food, Clothes, Housing) Percent Source: BLS

5 Ernst Engel s s Proposition of 1857 As income increases, the proportion of total expenditures allocated to food decreases., housing and apparel stay constant, and luxury goods increases. Ceteris Paribus: Given that all other characteristics are held constant.

6 Was Ernest Right? Exp. Shares Exp. Shares % in Exp. <$70,000 >$100,000 $70K-$100K Food Home % Food Away % Furnishings % Apparel % Entertainment % Pensions % Source: BLS

7 Changes in Expenditure Share Entertain 1.6% Apparel 14.0% Other 18.6% Housing 23.5% 1950 Food 42.4% Entertain 8.6% Health 6.4% Trans 19.3% Other 7.8% Apparel 7.8% 2005 Food 19.3% Housing 30.8% Entertain 4.4% Health 5.2% Other 8.6% Food 29.7% Ins/Pen 11.2% Entertain 5.1% Other 10.4% Food 12.8% Trans 13.4% Apparel 11.5% Source: BLS Housing 27.2% Healthcare 5.7% Transp 18.0% Apparel 4.1% Housing 32.7%

8 Change in U.S. Household Retail Expenditures Entertainment 28.2 Apparel 1.6 Furnishings 14.1 Food Away 23.3 Food Home 9.1 All Expenditures Source: BLS Percent Change

9 Increasing Concentration of Retail Sales Supermarkets Wal-Mart and the Six Dwarfs Percent $ Bil Sales 4th Largest 20th Largest Source: U.S. Census 8th Largest 50th Largest Wal-Mart Home Depot Costco Target Lowes Walgreens Sears Source: Forbes

10 Public Markets at the Crossroads So if Everyone loves the Market so much, how come it didn t catch on? Grocery stores copied it Farmers Markets are Booming

11 It s s All About the Customer Great Markets respond to the needs of the customer Shopper Vendor The Shopper is King

12 Things You Already Knew about Customer Behavior, but Didn t t Know their Fancy Names

13 Zipf s s Principle of Least-Effort Most people, most of the time, are turned back by modest hurdles that they know could be overcome, with effort. To be habitual, an action must be relatively effortless or carry a particularly LARGE PSYCHIC REWARD.

14 Law of Convenience Every additional step that stands between people's desires and the fulfillment of those desires greatly decreases the likelihood that they will undertake the activity. ICSC s Top 10 Moments Convenience as a driver of customer traffic

15 Lomonosov-Lavoisier Lavoisier Law Matter cannot be created or destroyed. So what about Sales? Markets cannot generate new business or create new buying power, it can only: Attract customers from existing businesses trade area or extend a trade area Fulfill a demand that has not been met within the trade area Capture increase in buying power from growth in population, employment, or income.

16 Reilly s s Law of Retail Gravitation Reilly's Law basically states that people will travel to the largest store/center (selection) most easily reached (convenience). Programs calculate the probability of where customers will shop

17 Nash s s Equilibrium Theorem In Game Theory, two stores selling the same merchandise will maximize their locational advantage by locating right next to each other at the mid-point: where half their consumers are located

18 A Theory of Shopping Shopping Demonstrates Social Relationships What do we care about? Shopping is a Devotional Rite Pleasing others Shopping as a treat - pleasing oneself Veblen Conspicuous consumption Shopping as thrift Hegelian dialectics household interests vs. community interests. Shopping as a moral act Shopping as Personal Identity Source: Daniel Miller writings

19 Physical Aspects of Market Capacity

20 Trade Area by Survey

21 Competitive Market Analysis

22 Pulling Power

23 Selected Store Market Share Estimated Area (S.F.) Lexington Market 74,400 (240,000) Estimated % Market Share (Fresh Food Items Only) 30% Safeway 50,000 14% Superfresh 35,000 13% Hollins Market 15,500 (50,000) 12% The Avenue Market 17,360 (56,000) 6% Stop Shop & Save - Pratt 15,000 5% Cross Street Market 27,900 (90,000) 4%

24 Sizing the Market Selected Fresh Category Hollins Market Potential from Huff Forecasting Model Bakery $234,000 Meat & Poultry $1,342,000 Fish & Seafood $97,000 Fresh Fruit & Vegetables $219,000

25 Value Key Price Quality Experience

26 Understand Your Customer to Focus on Customization Market Research is a Process Not a Product

27 Core Customer Geographic Psychographic

28 Pareto s s Principle 80/20 Rule states that for many phenomena 80% of results stem from 20% of the effort. In other words, focus on those who buys more at the Market.

29 Primary vs. Secondary Stores Primary Store 64% Conventional Supermarket 23% Supercenters 6% Limited Assortment 4% Warehouse 2% Specialty 1% Conv. Discount Secondary Store 63% Conventional Supermarket 16% Supercenters 3% Limited Assortment 9% Warehouse 3% Specialty 6% Conv. Discount

30 Stock-up? In-fill? Proteins? Organics? Local? Ethnic? Experience? Your Niche as a Secondary Place Meal Solutions?

31 Geographic Market Segmentation Live Downtown / Work Downtown Live Downtown / Work Outside Downtown Live in City Outside Downtown / Work Downtown Live in City Outside Downtown / Work Outside Downtown Live Metro Outside City / Work Downtown Live Metro Outside City/ Work Outside Downtown Live Downtown/ Not Work Live in City Outside Downtown/ Not Work Live in Metro Outside City/ Not Work Live Outside Metro/ Not Work

32 Age Lifestage Psychographic Segmentation Race/Ethnic Traditions Income Education

33 -ing the thing Experientialize your Commodities! Experientializing the commodity Pike Place Fishmonger throwing Baking The roasting, grinding, cooking, eating.... Make the customer have a good time buying

34 Knowledge is Experiential Information Learn How to Transform Customer Experience Customer Surveys Sample Size/Correlations Behavioral Tracking Memory vs. Reality Focus Groups Memories Measuring Sacrifice What consumer exactly wants and settles for

35 Work is Theater & Every Business a Stage Create a Stage for Experiences Workshops for Creating for Individualized Experiences Staging the Unexpected!

36 PPS s s 10 Qualities of Successful Right vendor Right location Right mix Right mission Right public spaces Right connections Right economics Right promotion Right value Right management Markets

37 Thank You Larry Lund Chicago

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