Pathways to an Open Grid, O'ahu: Project Launch. September 7, 2017

Transcription

1 Pathways to an Open Grid, O'ahu: Project Launch September 7, 2017

2 Agenda

3 Welcome & Introductions

4 POG Program Launch Agenda Time Topic Speakers 9:30-10:00 Welcome and Introductions All 10:00-10:45 About Pathways to an Open Grid, O'ahu Project Team 10:45-11:30 Perspectives HPUC Commissioner Lorraine Akiba, HPUC Commissioner Jay Griffin, HNEI Director Rick Rocheleau, and 11:30-12:00 Hawai'i, DER, and the Grid More Than Smart Executive Director Matthew Tisdale 12:00-1:00 Lunch All 1:00-2:30 POG, O'ahu Project Overview: Process, Stakeholder Input, and Planned Deliverables 2:30-3:00 Break All 3:00-4:00 Introduction to Scenario Development, Data Considerations, and Next Steps 4:00 Adjourn All Project Team Project Team

5 Ground Rules We will be using Chatham House Rule no personal or organizational attribution will be made to any comments/feedback in written documentation. However, to facilitate the meeting we do ask that you please. State name and organization before making comments Mute your phone when not speaking and don t put us on hold When using Questions function on the webinar, please include your organization name cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

6 Organization & Program Roles

7 About Pathways to an Open Grid, O'ahu

8 Problem Statement: The goal of POG: O'ahu is to create actionable information about the market in a publicly accessible, dynamically updated, web interface. The challenge is to coordinate perspectives and data from several different stakeholder groups to create an independent view of what exists today and to start to chart the path to what is possible. What we ve done is put together a team with a variety of highly honed skill sets to deliver this first of its kind value.

9 Our Process: Over the next year, participants will forecast potential resource adoption scenarios, analyze the O'ahu electric grid s renewable hosting capacity, and assess locationspecific net benefits of distributed energy resources. A team of experienced facilitators and analysts will collect and integrate stakeholder input into a secure, internetaccessible platform with publicly accessible features. The POG process will leverage More than Smart s Walk Jog - Run Framework and Kevala s Network Assessor Platform.

10 How is this Unique? The output will be a first of its kind, web-based modeling tool with transparent inputs, allowing you to visualize the grid on O'ahu and its potential evolution at the street level. A diverse group of stakeholders will help assess possible combinations of distributed resources and their potential value and cost to the grid using dynamic data sets. Renewable energy and other resources will be built into the tool to model different scenarios for O'ahu.

11 Outputs Web-based tool, may be limited to participating stakeholders (potentially multiple) Advanced Capacity assessments Locational Net Benefit Analysis (may include netting of integration costs)

12 Demo

13 Data Considerations Data will be: available, publicly accessible, and machine readable* Kevala is contributing U.S. DOE Sunshot Initiative-funded data such as DG PV, above ground distribution primary, substations, bulk power, etc. Stakeholders, including the state of Hawaii and market participants, will be submitting publicly available data to the process. No CEII data will be used as an output for this project. *Data topic framed by the More Than Smart Data and the Electricity Grid paper, (Shumavon, de Martini, and Wang, 2016).

14 POG Open Workshops # Date/Topic Details 0 September 7 Program Launch The move to 100% renewables will challenge the electric grid. Learn how building a street-level map of the grid will help us keep the lights on and costs low. 1 September 21 Crowdsourcing Data for Resource Adoption Scenarios 2 October 26 Advanced Capacity Analysis Best Practices 3 November 16 O'ahu Specific Advanced Capacity Analysis 4 January 18 Locational Net Benefit Analysis Best Practices 5 February 15 O'ahu Specific Locational Net Benefit Analysis 6 April 26 Putting the Pieces Together to Build the O'ahu Map 7 May 7 Assessor O'ahu Tool Functional Review 8 June 21 Launch of the Assessor O'ahu Tool Want insight into the changing grid? Explore available, publicly accessible and machine readable data needed for tracking the evolution of the grid. Learn about hosting capacity practices underway in other markets like California and New York. Decide what methods make sense to incorporate here on O'ahu. How many Distributed Energy Resources can we safely add? Use the most relevant methods for recommending the optimal mix of distributed energy resources on O'ahu. Learn about the data and tools being used in other markets to evaluate the location specific benefits and costs of integrating distributed energy resources. Determine the value of where and when to deploy distributed energy resources. Help design the O'ahu-specific formulas needed to estimate these locational values. The POG, O'ahu findings will be integrated and presented. Discover what the map can be used for and the inputs that are key to its design. Be one of the first to explore and test the mapping software. Join a select group to use the map and make recommendations for improving its functionality. Let s explore and celebrate the path forward to a 100% renewables together. Get access to an interactive map of O'ahu's distributed energy resources and evaluate their potential value to the community.

15 Perspectives

16 Hawaii, DER and The Grid Stepping Outside the Box Matthew Tisdale, More Than Smart

17 Overview of Presentation 1) Hawaii s Progress in DER Adoption 2) Introduction to Walk-Jog-Run 3) Highlighting Hawaiian Electric s Walk-Jog-Run Analysis 4) Stepping Outside the Box 5) How POG helps

18 Hawaii s Progress in Rooftop Solar Adoption (Q2) 0

19 Commission Direction Over Time "The future distribution system must have the capability to act both as a delivery service and an aggregator or customer-sited distributed energy resources to benefit the customer and the grid." (2014, 32058) "new additions of distributed PV will increasingly need to be competitively priced compared with utility-scale solar (including integration costs), while accounting for locational and other benefits these systems can provide to the grid. (2015, 32737) "The commission has determined that DER policies and programs in Hawaii must evolve to meet changing customer and utility system needs. (2015, 33258) Hawaii s modern grid should "cost-effectively maximize flexibility; minimize the risk of redundancy and obsolescence; "deliver customer benefits; and "enable greater DER and renewable energy integration. (2017, 34281)

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22 Walk-Jog-Run > Hawaii Grid Mod Strategy

23 Distribution Walk Jog Run Hawaii Functions Status A. Load and DER Develop multiple scenarios Normalize bottom-up and Move from deterministic to Walk Forecasting (shortterm for load and DER growth. top-down forecasts. Bottom- probabilistic forecasting. and long-term) Align bottom-up distribution up forecasts include market Account for interaction of growth with top-down load forecasts. insights and are used in planning. DERs. C. DER Hosting Capacity Analysis Hosting capacity used for indicative information for DER developers. DERs are evaluated individually and collectively through iteration. Hosting capacity analysis is used in the planning process to assess potential upgrades to enable forecast DER growth, but not optimized. Hosting capacity analysis is used within the replaces interconnection process for most resources. Simultaneous assessment of DER portfolios to further optimize hosting capacity. Run D. DER Locational Value Analysis System average distribution marginal costs identified along with specific bulk power system needs. Identify incremental distribution upgrades, estimated avoided costs and non-wires alternative suitability as well as any locational bulk power system benefits. Define methods for valuing societal benefits that may accrue at system level and locationally. Walk

24 Distribution Functions Walk Jog Run Hawaii Status A. Load and DER Develop multiple scenarios Forecasting (shortterm and long-term) Align bottom-up distribution for load and DER growth. growth with top-down load forecasts. Normalize bottom-up and top-down forecasts. Bottomup forecasts include market insights and are used in planning. Move from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting. Account for interaction of DERs. Walk C. DER Hosting Capacity Analysis Hosting capacity used for indicative information for DER developers. DERs are evaluated individually and collectively through iteration. Hosting capacity analysis is used in the planning process to assess potential upgrades to enable forecast DER growth, but not optimized. Hosting capacity analysis is used within the interconnection process for most resources. Simultaneous assessment of DER portfolios to further optimize hosting capacity. Run D. DER Locational Value Analysis System average distribution marginal costs identified along with specific bulk power system needs. Identify incremental distribution upgrades, estimated avoided costs and non-wires alternative suitability as well as any locational bulk power system benefits. Define methods for valuing societal benefits that may accrue at system level and locationally. Walk

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27 How POG Helps A chance to step outside the box and define collectively how Hawaii will run to 100%. Independently facilitated, data-driven, collaborative process. Start up speed analytical capabilities provide testing ground for future local analysis. Published and mapped results showing Pathways to an Open Grid.

28 Mahalo! Matthew Tisdale Executive Director More Than Smart

29 Project Overview: The Process, Stakeholder Input, and Planned Deliverables

30 Demo

31 Project Overview Deep Dive: 0 (9/7) Launch Meeting 1 (9/21) Data Crowdsourcing & Scenarios 2 - (10/19) Advanced Capacity Analysis - Introduction to Hosting Capacity Best Practices 3 - (11/16) Advanced Capacity Analysis - O'ahu-Specific Implementation 4 - (1/18) Locational Net Benefit Analysis - Introduction to LNBA Best Practices 5 - (2/15) Locational Net Benefit Analysis - O'ahu-Specific Implementation 6 - (4/19) Integration of Findings - Putting the Pieces Together to Build the O'ahu Map 7 - (5/17) Working Group Review of Product Functionality 8 - (6/21) Launch of the Assessor O'ahu Tool

32 1 (9/21) Data Crowdsourcing & Scenarios Deep dive on scenario modeling from the PSIPs: What assumptions are we modeling? What data do we need to do so? Data - 1) Available; 2) Accessible; and 3) Machine Readable: Kevala s DOE Sunshot award and related data State of Hawaii provided data Stakeholder provided data *Data topic framed by the More Than Smart Data and the Electricity Grid paper, (Shumavon, de Martini, and Wang, 2016).

33 2 - (10/19) Advanced Capacity Analysis: Introduction to Hosting Capacity Best Practices Hawaiian Electric History of HI hosting capacity work California DRP New York REV SME s Needed Kevala DOE funded research EPRI CSI funded research cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

34 3 - (11/16) Advanced Capacity Analysis: O'ahu-Specific Implementation Advanced vs. historical hosting capacity analysis Why does O'ahu require ACA? Solar plus storage 100% RPS Stakeholder proposed ACAs Key Deliverable cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

35 4 - (1/18) Locational Net Benefit Analysis - Introduction to LNBA Best Practices California DRP - DERAC New York REV LMP+D/transitional value of D Hawaii - TBD SME s Needed E3 DERAC Black and Veatch Holistic Utility Analysis Kevala - DERwin cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

36 5 - (2/15) Locational Net Benefit Analysis - O'ahu-Specific Implementation Calculating the cost and benefit stack in O'ahu Applying Scenarios to a 1:1 map Quantifying geographic variability in benefits and costs Key Deliverable

37 6 - (4/19) Integration of Findings - Putting the Pieces Together to Build the O'ahu Map Bounding the possible in the interest of time/resource constraints Scenarios as limiting factors Sensitivity Analysis Determining reasonable ranges for user inputs Key Deliverable

38 7 - (5/17) Working Group Review of Product Functionality Stakeholder input on the spectrum of tool capabilities Test scenario selection Evaluate sensitivities SME s Needed Identify input ranges cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

39 8 - (6/21) Launch of the Assessor O'ahu Tool Release of web-based tool Public vs. Stakeholder release Key Deliverable cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

40 Stakeholder Commitments: Invite other stakeholders Participation in the workshops Provide data: 1) Available, 2) Accessible, 3) Machine Readable Contribute as a Subject Matter Expert Review the Functionality of the Tool cassie@kevalaanalytics.com

41 Questions?

42 Break

43 Introduction to Scenario Development, Data Considerations, and Next Steps

44 Scenario Development and Data Considerations: Scenarios need to provide two crucial inputs to the process: an estimate of what the distribution of generation and load looks like for any given feeder/substation, and an indication of the cost of the bulk power system delivered power from a utility avoided cost perspective As a starting point we look to the Hawaiian Electric s Power Supply Improvement Plans (PSIPs) NB: Data availability will constrain the development of scenarios

45 Data Considerations In order to perform hosting capacity assessments we need to know: the amount load the amount distributed generation the types, amounts and capabilities of other distributed energy resources (i.e. storage, demand response, etc.) the feeder topography (including the substation)

46 Stakeholder Example: DRP Working Groups SolarCity/Tesla Data Transparency & Access whitepaper, 2016

47 Stakeholder Example: DRP Working Groups

48 Scenarios Put Forth in the PSIP PSIP scenarios provide a good starting place for our work. We expect feedback from stakeholders to facilitate the discussion around the data needed to to analyze those scenarios.

49 Two PSIP Scenarios for O ahu Overall Wind & Solar Mix at 2045 Capacity & Energy MW Capacity Post-April PSIP E3 Distributed PV Grid-Scale PV Wind (onshore) Wind (offshore)

50 PSIP Peak Demand and Sales Forecasts

51 PSIP Distributed PV Capacity Forecasts

52 PSIP Data Inputs & Gaps The HECO PSIP provides many of the necessary data inputs at varying levels of specificity, including, for example: Load and distributed generation forecasts Subtransmission and distribution upgrade costs Pricing and Utility avoided cost forecasts, etc. The Stakeholder process will help identify where data gaps exist or more specificity is needed Update data, as needed Fill gaps Variations and sensitivities Agree on reasonable proxies that will allow for updating at a later time, if better data becomes available.

53 Questions?

54 Next Steps, Action Items, Homework Next Meeting

55 Next Steps Homework assignment & stakeholder commitments Communicate & share feedback Join us for the next meeting 9/21

56 Mahalo