2013: RETAIL TRENDS & DRIVERS OF CONSUMER PREFERENCES

Transcription

1 2013: RETAIL TRENDS & DRIVERS OF CONSUMER PREFERENCES Steve Lutz January 31, 2013

2 AGENDA Presentation Overview Perishables Group Background Macro Trends Industry Trends to Consider Seafood Trends in Supermarkets Conclusions 2

3 NIELSEN PERISHABLES GROUP OVERVIEW Division of Nielsen Data from 18,000 Stores w/ SC 44 Markets, 100+ Retail Banners Shopper Dynamics Loyalty Card Data 30 million households Consumer Demographics -Spectra demographic profiles Advanced Analytics Price Elasticity Promotional impacts 3

4 MACRO TRENDS

5 The world has changed 5

6 LET S GROUND THE CONVERSATION June 2009 Recession Officially Ends Nov % of consumers say we are in a recession 6

7 Consumer Confidence Index Copyright 2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 5 YEARS OF A NEW NORMAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SIGNIFICANTLY OFF PRE RECESSION NORMS Great Recession Aug-12 Jun-12 Apr-12 Feb-12 Dec-11 Oct-11 Aug-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 Feb-11 Dec-10 Oct-10 Aug-10 Jun-10 Apr-10 Feb-10 Dec-09 Oct-09 Aug-09 Jun-09 Apr-09 Feb-09 Dec-08 Oct-08 Aug-08 Jun-08 Apr-08 Feb-08 Dec-07 Oct-07 Aug-07 Jun-07 Apr-07 Feb-07 Dec-06 Oct-06 Aug-06 Jun-06 Apr-06 Feb-06 Dec-05 Oct-05 Aug-05 Jun-05 Apr-05 Feb-05 Dec-04 Oct-04 Aug-04 Jun-04 Apr-04 Feb-04 Dec-03 Oct-03 Aug-03 Jun-03 Apr-03 Feb-03 Dec-02 Oct-02 Aug-02 Jun-02 Apr-02 Feb-02 Dec-01 Oct-01 Aug-01 Jun-01 Apr-01 Source: The Conference Board - Nine census regions, 5,000 US households; 1985 = 100; conducted by Nielsen 7

8 HOW CONSUMERS COPE 52% compare prices before deciding what to buy 47% use store circulars 41% use coupons +6 increase in the coupon redemptions +14 growth of Store Brands in the past 3 years Source: Nielsen Scantrack & Homescan US Buying Trends June

9 SHOPPER TRIPS HAVE NOT RETURNED BUT OTHER FACTORS ARE AT WORK Economic Growth 176 Avg Annual Trips Per Shopper Great Recession 158 Avg Annual Trips Per Shopper Post Recession 151 Avg Annual Trips Per Shopper Source: Nielsen Scantrack, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined; 52 weeks ending 6/9/2012 (vs. prior year); UPC-coded 9

10 Shopping patterns have changed SMALLER SHOPPING BASKETS MORE ONLINE REPLENISHMENT MORE INTEREST IN LOCAL STORES MORE EXPERIENCE SEEKING Source: The Demand Institute 10

11 CONSUMERS ARE SPLITTING THEIR TICKET MORE THAN EVER Grocery is the leader in fresh, but greater availability and assortment of fresh across retail channels responds to consumer demand 2016 Forecast: Retail Fresh Dollar Market Share 9% Remaining Market 12% Club 15% Mass/SuperCenter Point change from pt 2 pt 1 pt 64% Grocery 2 pt Nielsen Homescan, 52 weeks ending Q3 2012; Fresh = Meat, Seafood, Bakery, Deli and Produce Dept. 11

12 RETAILERS OFFERING FEWER PROMOTIONS, SHALLOWER DISCOUNTS Declining promotions playing out in both circular ads and discount strategies Circular Print Ad Count (total perishables) Promotional Average Retail Price (total perishables) -0.3% +2.5% Source: Market Track Promotional Data (Grocery channel only) 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago; Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts (FCA), 52 weeks ending 10/27/2012 vs. Year Ago 12

13 DEMAND FOR MORE VALUE-ORIENTED PRODUCTS SMALLER PACK SIZES LESS SPOILAGE/STORAGE Source: The Demand Institute 13

14 CONSUMERS STILL FOCUS ON FRESH 29% Grocery Store Sales 1.5 to 2.1 Times Larger with Fresh Sources: Homescan, TSV 52 weeks ending December 2011; Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total US 52 weeks ending 12/31/2011 (Grocery channel only) 14

15 AND RETAILERS KNOW IT! Market Differentiation Top 3 Shopper Equity Retail Brand Quality Prepared Foods Selection of Meat & Fish Quality Fresh Food Customer Service Quality Fresh Food Pleasant Store Environment Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends 2010 Correspondence Analysis Results Among Dependable Shoppers in retailers primary census region # 15

16 RETAIL SPENDING REFLECTS THE ECONOMY Retail Spending: 2 year trend 4% -1% -3% -1% -1% -9% -8% About 20% of HHs earn over $100k < $20K $20K - $29K $30K - $39K $40K - $49K $50K - $69K $70K - $99K $100K + Household Income Source: Nielsen Homescan, 52 w/e 10/1/2012 versus 10/3/2010 excludes gas-only or Rx-only trips 16

17 RETAIL IS CHANGING 6% Same Store Sales Growth VALUE STORES 3% Same Store Sales Growth MAINSTREAM STORES 8% Same Store Sales Growth HIGH END STORES INNOVATION Source: Company financials, most recent reporting: Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Costco, Sam s, CVS Macys, Target, Kroger, Rite aid, Wal-mart, Whole Foods, Nordstroms Source: Nielsen Scantrack, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined; 52 weeks ending 6/9/2012 (vs. prior year); UPC-coded 17

18 CONSUMER PRIORITIES DRIVING SUCCESSFUL PRODUCTS Across fresh, products that fit into four main consumer priority areas are proving successful HEALTHY CONVENIENCE PREMIUM/ INDULGENT MULTI-CULTURAL/ GLOBAL 18

19 Dollar Growth Volume Growth CATEGORIES WITH PRIORITY ATTRIBUTES DRIVING GROWTH Dollar Growth Volume Growth 8% 7% 8% 4% 7% 5% 5% 8% 3% 5% 5% 3% 1% 3% Healthy Convenience Premium/ Indulgence Multicultural/ Global Contribution to Fresh Dollar Sales 37% 19% 9% 3% Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago; Products in each group are not mutually exclusive 19

20 CONSUMERS SWITCHING ACROSS DEVELOPED CATEGORIES Record-high meat prices fueling switching more than ever before Ground beef a substitute for multiple beef and chicken cuts Pork substitution within the protein Seafood substitutes for all three proteins Also opting for value-added meats instead of traditional, despite higher price points Small household penetration, but sales growing consistently as people seeking convenient options Source: Nielsen Perishables Group Meat Department Consumer Decision Tree Study

21 CONSUMER OVERVIEW Consumers smarter /more responsive than ever New purchase priorities are driving sales Fresh is the key Retailers forced to shift tactics Seafood has momentum into

22 STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS Consumers 2013 are in pursuit of value Fresh Seafood is largely undifferentiated and dominated by commodity products Retailers have no road map for success How do you drive success at retail? 22

23 VALUE INCREASINGLY THE NEW CATEGORY DRIVER Cost Consumer = Price Value Consumer = Benefits/Price Premium Consumer Mainstream Pasta Remaining Excluding Chocolate Yogurt Health Total Premium Greek Healthy Yogurt Chocolate Roma Tomatoes Hot House Vine Tomatoes Pasta Mainstream Mid-Tier Coffee Toothpaste Premium Coffee Super Premium Snacking Toothpaste Pod Coffee Tomatoes Value Added Value Premium Value Dollar Sales Dollar Sales -8% 3% Dollar Sales Dollar Unit Sales Sales -1% Dollar 2% Sales 4% +.1% 6% -3% Unit Volume Sales Unit Pound Sales -4% Sales -10% 1% Avg Price +268% +121% higher Price Premium Dollar +63% Sales 160% 20% Price Premium +126% Dollar Sales Unit +4% Sales 203% 20% Dollar Sales +10% Volume +8% Volume +5% 23

24 VALUE INCREASINGLY THE NEW CATEGORY DRIVER Cost Consumer = Price Value Consumer = Benefits/Price Mainstream Pasta Remaining Excluding Chocolate Yogurt Health Total Premium Greek Healthy Yogurt Chocolate Farm Fillet Wild Salmon Pasta Mainstream Mid-Tier Coffee Toothpaste Premium Coffee Super Premium Copper Toothpaste Pod Coffee River Salmon Value Added Value Premium Value Dollar Sales Dollar Sales -8% 3% Dollar Sales Dollar Unit Sales Sales -1% 2% 4% 6% -3% Dollar Sales +11.8% Unit Sales Unit Pound Sales -4% Volume Sales +16.4% 1% Price $6.92 Price Chg Avg Price +268% +121% higher Avg Price 40% higher Dollar Sales 160% 20% Dollar Sales 115% Unit Sales 203% 20% Price Premium +53.1% Unit Price Sales Premium 99% +110% Dollar Sales +33.5% Dollar Sales +37.8% Volume +37.5% Volume +54.1% Price Chg % Price Chg % Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 24

25 VALUE OFTEN MORE POWERFUL THAN PRICE Where Innovation Pays ORGANIC/LOCAL CONVENIENCE NEW FLAVORS Where Price Matters COMMODITY ITEMS SUBSTITUTION TRIED AND TRUE 25

26 Women control $12 of $18 trillion in global consumer spending close to 70% Women in 95% of countries say quality is the #1 driver of brand loyalty Transitions strategy from pricing to quality; includes production, marketing, packaging, in-store 26

27 NEW REALITY Complex categories Dynamic retail environment Retailers/Consumers looking for: Local, healthy foods Flavor & Convenience Unique food experiences Commodity products earn commodity returns 27

28 SEAFOOD OVERVIEW

29 KEY BUSINESS QUESTIONS What are the base category trends? How is fresh seafood performing across various retail chains? Does performance vary much from retailer to retailer? How do we go about identifying target retailers? 29

30 KEY FRESH SEAFOOD RETAIL OBSERVATIONS Fresh Seafood is the 2012 Center Plate Star Strong growth, but driven by key categories Retail price appears to have played a big role = Significant Opportunities for Growth Retailers need your help in identifying best practices to drive sales (promotion, merchandising, assortment, etc.) 30

31 52 WEEK PERFORMANCE KEY PROTEINS Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 31

32 52 WEEK PERFORMANCE KEY PROTEINS Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 32

33 52 WEEK PERFORMANCE KEY PROTEINS Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 33

34 52 WEEK PERFORMANCE KEY PROTEINS Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks vs. year ago through 11/24/

35 52 WEEK PERFORMANCE KEY PROTEINS Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 35

36 FRESH SEAFOOD CATEGORIES RANKED 1-10 Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 36

37 FRESH SEAFOOD CATEGORIES RANKED Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 37

38 FRESH SEAFOOD TOP CATEGORIES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 38

39 FRESH SEAFOOD TOP CATEGORIES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 39

40 FRESH SEAFOOD TOP CATEGORIES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 40

41 FRESH SEAFOOD TOP CATEGORIES Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Total U.S. 52 weeks ending 11/24/2012 vs. Year Ago 41

42 LOYALTY CARD BASKET FACTS

43 HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION 52 WEEKS Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 43

44 HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION 52 WEEKS Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 44

45 TRIPS PER BUYER Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 45

46 TRIPS PER BUYER Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 46

47 TRIPS PER BUYER PERCENT CHANGE VS. YAGO Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 47

48 TRIPS PER BUYER PERCENTAGE CHANGE Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 48

49 VOLUME PER TRIP Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 49

50 VOLUME PER TRIP Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 50

51 VOLUME PER TRIP % CHANGE VS YAGO Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts Shopper Insights powered by Spire, 52 weeks ending 9/29/2012 vs. Year Ago 51

52 IMPACT OF SUPERMARKET PRACTICES A TALE OF TWO MARKETS

53 TILAPIA PERFORMANCE METRICS Top 4/5 Bottom 5 Dollars per $MM ACV $1,086 $530 Dollar Contribution 8.4% 7.9% Volume per $MM ACV $311 $159 Volume % Change 20.9% 0.1% Non-Promo Ave Retail $3.82 $4.35 Promo Ave Retail $3.52 $3.91 Impressions per Store/Week Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks vs. year ago through 11/24/

54 TOP L.A./PHOENIX RETAILERS (NAMES MASKED) Geography Dollars per $MM ACV L. A. Discounter $4,419 Phoenix Mainstream $1,243 Phoenix Mainstream $1,132 Phoenix Mainstream $988 L.A. Mainstream $983 Average $1,086 Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks vs. year ago through 11/24/

55 BOTTOM L.A./PHOENIX RETAILERS (NAMES MASKED) Geography Dollars per $MM ACV L.A. Mainstream $729 L.A. Mainstream $597 L.A. Mainstream $545 Phoenix Mainstream $456 L.A. Mainstream $321 Average $530 Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks vs. year ago through 11/24/

56 A TALE OF TWO RETAIL BANNERS (SAME CHAIN) Weekly Tilapia Retail Dollar Sales Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks vs. year ago through 11/24/

57 A TALE OF TWO RETAIL BANNERS (SAME CHAIN) Phoenix Socal Dollars per $MM ACV $1,243 $597 Dollar Contribution 7.8% 5.4% Volume per $MM ACV Volume % Change 23.5% -1.8% Non-Promo Ave Retail $3.88 $3.66 Promotional Average Retail $2.98 $2.98 Impressions per Store/Week Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks vs. year ago through 11/24/

58 CONCLUSIONS

59 WHAT CAN WE LEARN? Many avenues to increase seafood performance Category segmentation needed Local Variety Flavor/Convenience Seafood needs higher household penetration and increased consumer confidence Need know: Causes for retail performance variances HOW to address opportunities 59

60 QUESTIONS? Contact :Steve Lutz at the Nielsen Perishables Group: