Why Thomson Reuters Eikon? Accessing Fathom Charts in Thomson Reuters Eikon. Search for DATASTREAM and select chart studio or type DSCHART or CBOOK

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1 A selection of charts presented by Fathom Consulting at the Global Economic Market Outlook Webinar on 12th May 2016

2 Why? Whether you re doing top-down macro analysis, sector research or asset allocation strategy, has the content and tools you need, all in one place, to help you outperform. Eikon helps you see the complete picture by combining one of the most comprehensive economics databases in the industry, powered by Thomson Reuters Datastream, with our world-class company information and cross asset market data. Track daily news and events Compare and analyze key economic indicators Establish whether stock prices are over or under-valued Access unique economics point in time data Track market expectation Generate ideas and present them clearly Access a pre-built library of charts built by Fathom Consulting including the charts shown in this booklet Accessing Fathom Charts in Search for DATASTREAM and select chart studio or type DSCHART or CBOOK The Datastream Chart Studio in Eikon includes full editing, customization and publishing capabilities Access the slides from the 12 May 2016 webinar presentation under 08:Global Economics and Markets Outlook View an extensive library of example charts and prebuilt topical charts from Fathom Consulting in the Chartbook Access Fathom s new Macroeconomic Policy Indicator by searching for FMPI in the Chartbook 2 Available on

3 Fathom Consulting Global Economic and Markets Outlook Selected charts All commentary and opinion is that of Fathom Consulting and any views expressed are not those of Thomson Reuters. The full set of charts presented are available in along with many of the data sources. Global recession? What global recession? Global GDP growth 5 4 Annual percentage change Global GDP IMF Consensus Fathom ( published China) Fathom ( true China) The developed world is not facing imminent recession but growth is muted in most countries, and looser money is not helping. 3 Available on

4 End of the road for monetary policy? OECD economies, change in monetary and fiscal stance 4 3 Change in real interest rate, , percentage points Greece Italy Spain Portugal -2-3 Ireland Change in cyclically-adjusted primary balance, , percentage points As the year progresses, we expect to see a migration towards the top left: looser fiscal; maybe tighter monetary policy. Fathom Macroeconomic Policy Indicator 1.0 Tighter Looser US Japan Germany UK FMPI measures the overall stance of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal together). And policy is loose right across the developed world and should be adding between 0.2% and 0.4% to growth this year. 4 Available on

5 Q1 was weak... again International productivity comparisions 110 Index, 2008 Q1 = US UK Japan EA The US economy has suffered a Q1 dip for five years out of the last six, including Confidence remains high. Combined with robust jobs growth, that suggests the demand outlook remains positive. But the medium to long term is an increasing concern 5 Available on

6 Looking at the Euro Area EA 5Y5Y inflation-linked forward swap 2.2 Per cent Jan meeting Dec meeting March meeting The Governing Council disappointed in December, but exceeded expectations in March: The main refinancing rate was cut to zero, and the deposit rate to -0.40%. The pace of asset purchases was increased to 80 billion per month, while corporate bonds were added to the mix. TLTRO 2 programme was unveiled, rewarding banks who lend more. The ECB believes this will do the trick. Both core and headline inflation are expected to move back towards target over the forecast horizon just somewhat later than had seemed likely three months ago. 6 Available on

7 Doubling down in China now a serious prospect Investment 50 Share of GDP, per cent China Advanced economics Emerging economies China s fundamental economic problem is excess capacity. There is an alternative, and that is to double-down. In the short-term, it will work. In the long-term, it can only make matters worse. 7 Available on

8 BoJ s NIRP backfires Nikkei 225 performance relative to MSCI world Performance changes from the day pre-policy announcement D5 D10 D15 D20 D25 D30 D35 D40 D45 D50 April 2013 (QQE) October 2014 (Extend QQE) January 2016 (NIRP) The Bank of Japan s decision to join the negative rates club has been wholly counterproductive. 8 Available on

9 Brexit and sterling asset risks Fathom StRRiM (Sterling Relative Metric) 3 Scottish referendum Z-score EU elections General election Average sterling risk metric Recession Businesses and markets do not like uncertainty. The period of uncertainty that would follow Britain leaving the EU would be costly. Fathom s Sterling Relative Risk Metric (StRRiM) shows that relative risk on sterling assets, and we believe there is scope for it to exceed the financial crisis peak if Britain votes to leave the EU. 9 Available on

10 Fathom Macroeconomic Policy Indicator (FMPI) OECD FMPI 1.0 Tighter Looser Fathom Macroeconomic Polict Indicator (FMPI) Across the whole of the OECD on average, Policy has loosened progressively since the recession 10 Available on

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12 Macro Explorer To access, type Macro Explorer or MACROX The Macro Explorer App offers compelling macroeconomic data visualization features to help you identify investment opportunities This intuitive app offers highly interactive market selection filters, that allow you to: Access hundreds of indicators to gain historical insight across markets Screen for markets meeting a wide range of performance or risk criteria View natural language generated insights with contextualised summaries of the data in view Display an interactive sector heat map with dozens of aggregate fundamentals available to choose from Search for deeper trends and multiple indicator comparisons using moving grids and scatter plots Visualize the real-time performance of your watchlists, portfolios and a selection of cross asset benchmarks on our world map view Navigate to country overview pages for further investigation Export data to Microsoft Excel for further analysis The Macro Explorer App provides access to hundreds of indicators spanning historical and forecast data from 1990 to Indicators are grouped into five main categories: Key Indicators Oxford Economics World Bank WDI Premium Content from Fathom Consulting, IFO and Ipsos Thomson Reuters international comparable economics The world map view allows you to compare multiple countries within the selected regions or groups. 12

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