Global Economy Nears Standstill

Transcription

1 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, MAY Global Economy Nears Standstill Update on the economic Situation and Development in Selected Sectors business indicator report be think innovate

2 2 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, may CONTENTS Economic Expectations for Key Countries and Industry Sectors (Source: ZEW indicator, ZEW, 16 April 2013) Fig. 2, New Passenger Car Registrations in Europe (Source: ACEA, 17 April 2013) Fig. 3, Machine Tool Order Intake in Germany (Source: VDMA, May 2013) Fig. 4, Machine Tool Order Intake in Japan (Source: JMTBA, May 2013) Fig. 5, Machine Tool Order Intake in U.S.A. (Source: AMT, 8 April 2013) [May figures not ready as of production time.] Fig 6, German Business Climate Industry and Trade (Source: Business Climate Indicator, Ifo Institute, 4 April 2012) Fig 7, The Grundfos Global Automotive Indicators (Source: Automotive Information Platform, MarkLines.com, May 2013) Fig 8, The Grundfos Raw Material Price Index (Source: London Metal Exchange, Steel Business Briefing, CME Group, March 2013) About Grundfos Industry Indicators This quarterly newsletter can give you a general idea of which way the wind is blowing in the machine tools industry. It is a special supplement to our subscribers of Knowledge Link, our website for the machining industry. Almost all the charts and graphs here are publicly available. They come from the three major machine tool associations in Germany, Japan and the United States as well as global surveys from market analysts. We make the final graphs ourselves, the Grundfos Raw Materials Index and the automotive Monthly Production Output by country and manufacturer. We build the latter up from available automotive production figures. Grundfos Machining Industry segment uses automotive production statistics, because that market is such a big part of the machine tools industry. Based on that, we try to estimate how the coming one- to three months will look. Why do we want to share these statistics? Because we have a common interest in seeing how the market is doing. So please: read these statistics and comments as indicators alone We publish a full version of the Grundfos Industry Indicators quarterly in three languages, as well a monthly version in English only. The Grundfos Industry Indicators Copyright 2013 Grundfos A/S. Permission to reprint graphs, tables and data has been granted to Grundfos from the various organisations represented in the publication. If you have comments or questions on the data from those organisations, please contact them directly with the links provided. We welcome your other comments.

3 3 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, may Grundfos analyst: Global economy at a standstill In April, we saw weak or no growth almost all over the globe. That applied especially to Europe where the debt crisis still causes uncertainty but also to the U.S. and the BRIC countries. German business expectations declined. Machine Tool order intake in Japan recovered slightly in February and March after a bad start in 2013, but is still far behind last year's numbers. The same situation applies to the German Machine Tool industry in March. Overall, the global economy needs momentum. Frank Baake Senior Strategy & Intelligence Analyst 1 Economic Expectations for Key Countries and Industry Sectors The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) writes, In April 2013 the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has fallen by 12.2 points and is now at a level of 36.3 points. Despite its decline, the indicator currently hovers at its third highest mark within the last 24 months. The current level has only been exceeded in the two preceding months. "Basically, the surveyed financial market experts remain confident, but are less optimistic than they have been in the previous month. The decline in economic sentiment is consistent with the release of economic data that fell short of expectations", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest. German exports into the Eurozone as well as the rest of the world have declined, for instance. The debt crisis in the Eurozone is still unresolved and causes uncertainty. Economic expectations for the Eurozone have decreased again in April. The respective indicator has fallen by 8.5 points to 24.9 points. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is ascertained monthly. Up to 350 financial experts take part in the survey. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic for the expected economic development in Germany in six months. The survey also asks for the expectations for the Euro-zone, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S.A. For more information, visit ZEW s website at zew.de.

4 4 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, may ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (Germany)

5 5 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, MAy 2 New Passenger Car Registrations in Europe The European Automobile Manufacturers Asociation (ACEA) writes, In March, demand for new passenger cars was on the decline for the 18th consecutive month, totalling 1,307,107 units. The UK remained a resilient market, posting a 5.9% growth, while Italy (-4.9%), Spain (-13.9%), France (-16.2%) and Germany (-17.1%) saw their demand decrease. Overall, the EU recorded a total of 1,307,107 new cars, or 10.2% less than in March Over the first quarter of 2013, new car registrations amounted to 2,989,486 units, or 9.8% less than in the first three months of For more information, see ACEA s website at acea.be. 3 Machine Tool Order Intake in Germany For the German Machine Tool Industry, the order intake was in March -18.7% compared to the same month in Only a slight increase vs. February numbers could be observed. The VDMA (Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau German Engineering Federation) is a network of around 3,000 engineering industry companies in Europe. For more information, please visit the VDMA s website at vdma.org.

6 6 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, MAy Machine Tool Order Intake in Japan 4 The order intake for the Japanese Machine Tool Industry in March 2013 was -21.6% compared to March 2012, but +11.8% compared to previous month February For more information, please visit the JMTBA s website at jmtba.or.jp Machine Tool Order Intake in U.S.A. 5 The Association for Manufacturing Technology (AMT) writes, February U.S. manufacturing technology orders totalled $ million. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTO program, was up 5.7% from January but down 10.6% when compared with the total of $ million reported for February With a year-to-date total of $ million, 2013 is down 11.9% compared with A month-to-month gain is certainly good to see, and these numbers seem to echo some of the other recent economic data, including gains in both factory orders and durable goods orders, said AMT President Douglas K. Woods. A year-to-date decline in orders compared to 2012 is in line with expectations we had for a slight slowdown in the first two quarters of 2013, though second-half growth is expected to offset the slump. This is in line with our economists predictions that orders for 2013 will stay relatively flat compared to The United States Manufacturing Technology Consumption (USMTC) report, jointly compiled by the two trade associations representing the production and distribution of manufacturing technology, provides regional and national U.S. consumption data of domestic and imported machine tools and related equipment. Analysis of manufacturing technology consumption provides a reliable leading economic indicator as manufacturing industries invest in capital metalworking equipment to increase capacity and improve productivity. For more information, visit the website at amtonline.org.

7 7 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, MAy 6 German Business Climate Industry and Trade Ifo Business Climate Germany: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell in April. Although the majority of companies assessed their current business situation as good, they were far more cautious than last month. Their expectations regarding future business developments were also lower. The German economy is taking a breather. In manufacturing the business climate indicator fell significantly. In manufacturing, the business climate continued to brighten. Companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favourably than last month, but they are far more optimistic about the future than previously. Business expectations showed their sharpest increase since August Export expectations also continued to improve. The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as good, satisfactorily or poor and their business expectations for the next six months as more favourable, unchanged or more unfavourable. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses good and poor ; the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses more favourable and more unfavourable. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalised to the average of the year The CESifo Group, consisting of the Centre for Economic Studies (CES), the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and the CESifo GmbH (Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research) is a research group unique in Europe in the area of economic research. It combines the theoretically oriented economic research of the university with the empirical work of a leading Economic research institute and places this combination in an international environment. For more information, visit the website at cesifo-group.de.

8 8 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, MAy 7 The Grundfos Global Automotive Indicators Data source: MarkLines Co. Ltd Hyundai-Kia and GM Group s production numbers were affected less by competition and more by the fewer production days in Chinese factories in February. Production in Japan, U.S. and Germany in March was without larger fluctuations. China caught up well after Chinese Year vacations in February. Data source: MarkLines Co. Ltd

9 9 GRUNDFOS MACHINING INDUSTRY issue 4, may 8 The Grundfos Raw Materials Price Index Materials Update Source: London Metal Exchange, Steel Business Briefing, CME Group. Raw materials price index, General status May 2013 Source: London Metal Exchange, Steel Business Briefing, CME Group. Grundfos Cost Analyst Jesper Bjerregård Juul comments on the price fluctuations of raw materials and their impact on the manufacturing industry. He writes: Nickel s downward pull Commodity markets moved back during April due to different events and macro economic developments in the global markets. Among the factors affecting global commodity prices were a dissapointing jobs report from the US, as well as a setback in the ISM Manufacturing Index both in manufacturing and service. Stainless steel continues to fall. Part of this loss of momentum is due to considerable uncertainty about the outlook for the nickel price, which has been tracking a steep downward path since mid-march, and at close to $15,000/metric ton is at its lowest point this year. Another key factor is the unexciting prospects in some key stainless end markets. The outlook for the European automotive sector is hardly encouraging though showing slight improvement in Scandinavia and stainless sales into the white goods sector are lower than at this time last year, according to sources in Steel Business Briefing.

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