The Solow Growth Model with Human Capital. Lecture 6

Transcription

1 The Solow Growth Model with Human Capital Lecture 6

2 Descendents of Solow Model There are number of descendents of the Solow model. (Chap. 3 ) A key descendent is that the extention incorporates human capital. Mankiw, G., Romer, D. And Weil, D. (1992) A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Included human capital

3 Including human capital They recognised that labour in different economies may possess different levels of education and different skills. Extending the Solow model to include human capital or skilled labour is relatively straightforward. New production funtion

4 New production funtion Constant returns to scale Y = K a (AH) 1-a (1) Where Y is Output, K Physical capital A is Labour augmenting technology H ; Skilled labour

5 Details... A represents labour augmenting technology that grows exogenously at rate g. Individuals in this economy accumulate human capital by spending time learning new skills instead of working. Let U denote the fraction of an individual s time spent learning skills, and let L denote the total amount of (row) labour used in production in the economy.

6 Total amount of labour in the economy The total amount of (row)labour input in the economy is given by; L = (1- U ) P Where L is row labour, U is the fraction of an individual s time spent learning skills, P is population. Make the following functional assumption about skilled labour generation

7 Skilled labour We assume unskilled labour learnings skills for time U generates skilled labour H according to: H = e uψ L (2) Where ψ positive constant. Notice that if U = 0, then H = L, all labour is unskilled. By increasing U, a unit of unskilled labour increases the effective units of skilled labour H. To see how;

8 Effect of increase of U on H To see by how much, take logs and derivatives of equation (2) w.r.t. U.; (dlog H)/((dU) = Ψ (3) Exp. : effect of time spent on learning on wages. This equation states that a small increase in U increases H by the percentage Ψ (or more correctly, (Ψ X 100) The fact that the effects are proportional is driven by the somewhat odd presence of the exponential e in the question. This formulation is intended to match a large literature in labour economics that finds that an additional year of schooling increases the wages earned by an individual by something like 10%.

9 Physical capital Physical capital is accumulated by investing some output instead of consuming it: ΔK = sy δk (4) Where Sk is the investment rate of physical capital and δ is the constant depreciation rate. We solve this model using the same techniques employed earlier: Intensive form

10 Intensive form Let lower case letters denote variables divided by the stock of unskilled labour, L, and rewrite the production function in terms of output per worker y = k a (Ah) 1-a (5) Notice that h = e uψ. How do agents decide how much time to spend accumulating skills instead of working? Just as we assume that individuals save and invest a constant fraction of their income, we will assume that U is constant and given exogenously.

11 Constant h The fact that h is constant means that the production function in equation (5) is very similar to that used earlier in the Solow model. In particular along a balanced growth paths, y and k will grow at the constant rate g, the rate of technological progress. As in the earlier Solow model, the model is solved by considering state variables that are constant along a balanced growth path. There, recall that the state variables were terms such as y/a. Here, since h is constant, we can define the state variables by dividing by Ah. Denoting these state variables with a tilde, equation (5) implies that ỹ =ќ a which is same as the earlier prod. function

12 New capital accumulation eq. Thus the capital accumulation equation can be written in terms of the state variables as; Δќ = s ỹ - (n+g+δ) ќ (7) Adding human capital does not change the basics of the model.

13 The new steady state values The steady state values of ќ and ỹ are found by setting Δќ = 0, which yields; (ќ) / (ỹ) = (s) / (n+g+ δ) Substituting this condition into the production function in equation (6) we find the steady-state values of the outputtechnology ratio ỹ: ỹ* = ((s)/(n+g+ δ)) a/1-a

14 Why some countries are rich in extended Solow model Rewriting this in terms of output per worker, we get; ỹ*(t) = ((s)/(n+g+ δ)) a/1-a h A(t) (8) Where we have explicitly included t to remind us which variables are grıwing over time. This last equation summarizes the explanation provided by the extended Solow model for why some countries are rich and the others are poor.

15 Countries are rich because... They have high investment rates in physical capital, spend a large fraction of time accumulating skills (h = e uψ ), have low population growth rates, and have high levels of technology. Furthermore, in the steady state, per capita output grows at the same rate of technological progress, g, just as in the original Solow model.

16 How well does this model perform empirically.. How well does this model perform empirically in terms of explaining why some countries are richer than others? Solow model with human capital has strong empirical support. İ.e. Countries that invest a large fraction of their resources in physical capital and in the accumulation of skills are rich.

17 THE ECONOMICS OF IDEAS Lecture 6

18 Capital based or otherwise... The neoclassical models we have studied so far are in many ways capital based theories of economic growth. These theories focus on modeling the accumulation of physical and human capital. In another sence, however, the theories emphasized the importance of technology.

19 Technology or otherwise... The models do not generate economic growth in the absence of technological progress and productivity differences help to explain why some countries are rich and others are poor. In this way, neoclassical growth theory highlights its own shortcomings, although technology is a central component of neoclassical theory, it is left unmodeled. Technological improvements arrive exogenously at a constant rate, g, and differences in technology across economies are unexplained. In this lecture we will explore the broad issues associated with creating an economic model of technology and technological improvement.

20 What is technology? In the economics of growth and development, the term technology has a very specific meaning. Technology; is the way inputs to the production process are transformed in to output. For example, if we have a general production function Y = F(K,L), then the technology of production is given by the function F(.); this production function explains how inputs are transformed into output.

21 Cobb-Douglas prod. technology Cobb-Douglas production function of earlier discussions, Y = K a (AL) 1-a A is a index of technology.

22 Ideas and technology Ideas improve the technology of production. A new idea allows a given bundle of inputs to produce more or better output. Example from Romer (1990); Early age humans used iron oxide as a pigment to create drawings on the walls of caves. Now we paint iron oxide onto magnetic tape to produce VCR recordings.

23 Ideas The idea behind the VCR allows us to use a given bundle of inputs to produce output that generates a higher level of utility. In the context of the production function above, a new idea generates an increase in the technology index, A. Examples of ideas and technological improvements: In 1800,light was provided by candles and oil lamps, whereas today we have very efficient fluorescent bulbs. Nordhous (1994) has calculated that the quality adjusted price of light has fallen by a factor of 4000 since the year 1800.

24 Ideas Ideas are by no means limited to fields of engineering. The multiplex theatre and diet_soft drinks are innovations that allowed firms to combine inputs in new ways that consumers, according to revealed preference, have found very valuable. The assembly lines and mass production techniques that allowed car production company to produce in every 24 minutes

25 The Economics of Ideas Beginning in the mid-1980 s, paul Romer formalized the relationship between the economics of ideas and economic growth. This relationship can be thought of in the following way; Ideas Nonrivalry Increasing Returns Imperfect Competition

26 Ideas are nonrivalry because Once idea is invented, it can be used by one person or by one thousand people at no additional cost. Nonrivalry implies the presence of increasing returns to scale. To model these increasing returns in a competitive environment with international research necessarily requires imperfect competition.

27 Ideas as an economic good A crucial observation emphasized by Romer(1990) is that ideas are very different from most other economic goods. Most goods, such as DVD players or lawyer services are rivalrous; That is, my use of a DVD player excludes your use of the same DVD player, or my seing a particular lawyer today from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm precludes your seing the same attorney at the same time. Most economic goods share this property: the use of the good by one person precludes its use by another.

28 Nonrivalrous Ideas In contrast, ideas are nonrivalrous. The fact that Toyoto takes advantage of just-in-time inventory methods does not preclude GM from taking advantage of the same technique. Once an idea has been created, anyone with knowledge of the idea can take advantage of it.

29 Ideas Excludable Another important characteristics of ideas, one that ideas share with most economic goods: they are, at least partially excludable; The degree to which a good is excludable is the degree to which the owner of the good can change a free for its use.

30 Excludable ideas The firm that invents the design for the next computer chip can presumably lock the plans in a safe and restricted access to the design, at least for some period of time. Alternatively, copyright and patent system grant inventors who receive copyrights or patents the right to charge for the use of their ideas.

31 Degree of excludability High Low Examples Rivalrous goods Lawyer services CD player Flopy disk Fish in the sea Nonrivalrous goods Encoded Satellite TV transmission. Computer code for a software application. National Defence Basic R&D Calculus

32 The tragedy of the commons Goods that suffer from the tragedy of the commons problem are rivalrous but have low degree of excludability.(ower fishing of international water-over grazing of land) The cost of one peasent choosing to graze an additional cow on the commons is shared by all of the presents, but the benefit is captured solely by one peasent. The result is an inefficiently high level of grazing that can potentially destroy the commons.

33 Degree of excludability Ideas are nonrivalrous goods, but they vary substantially in their degree of excludability. Encoded satellite TV transmissions are highly excludable, while computer software is less excludable. Software piroting is another example.

34 Public good Nonrivalrous goods that are essentially unexcludable are often called public goods; A traditional example is a national defence.

35 Externalities Goods that are excludable allow their producers to capture the benefits they produce goods thaqt are not excludable involve substantial spillovers of benefits that are not captured by producers. Such spillovers are called externalities. Goods with positive spillovers tend to be underproduced by markets, providing a classic opportunity for government intervention to improve welfare. İ.e. Basic R&D and national defence are financed by primarily government. Goods with negative spillovers may be overproduced by markets, and government regulation may be needed if property rights can not well defined.

36 Rival-non rival Goods that are rivalrous must be produced each time they are sold; goods that are non-rivalrous need to be produced only once. That is nonrivalrous goods such as ideas involve a fixed cost of production and zero marginal cost. İ.E. First production of latest word processor or Edison lamb. Fixed cost high but marginal cost is very low.

37 Increasing return and imperfect competition The only reason for a nonzero marginal cost is that the non-rivalrous good-the idea- is embodied in arivalrous good- the flopy disk or the materials of the light bulb. This reasoning leads to a simple but powerful insight: the economics of ideas is intimately tied to the presence of increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition. The link to increasing returns is almost immediate once we grant that ideas are associated with fixed costs.

38 Costs Once the product is developed, each additional unit is produced with constant returns to scale: doubling the number of floppy disks,instruction manuals and labour to put everything together will double production. In other words this process can be viewed as production with a fixed cost and a constant marginal cost. Prod. Function : y=f(x)=100*(x-f) that exibits a fixed cost F and a constant marginal cost of production.

39 Fixed cost and increasing returns

40 Cost Think of y as copies of the next generation of wordprocessing software with voice recognition lets call it word talk, and think of X as the amount of labour input required to produce Word Talk. (This statement is aproximately rigt, the true version is F+(1/100) units of labour required to produce first copy) Thus, F is the research cost, which is likely to be a very large number. If X is measured as hours of labour input, we might assume that F=10000: it takes hours to produce the first copy of Word Talk. After the first copy is created, additional copies can be produced very cheaply.(in this example 100 hour labour can produce 100 copies)

41 Increasing returns and MC Recall that a production function exibits incresing returns to scale if f(ax) a f(x) where a is some number greater than one for example, doubling the inputs more than doubles output. Q. If the marginal cost of production is very small why is it that the product costs so much? Doesn t this imply an inefficiency in the market?

42 Why not MC=P The answer is that yes, there is an inefficiency because price should be equal in MC for efficient level of production. However, the inefficiency in many ways a necessary one. Hihg level of fixed cost or more generally presence of incresing returns, implies that setting price equal to MC will result in negative profit..

43 Fixed cost and incresing return

44 Fixed cost and incresing return The figure shows the costs of production as a function of the number of units produced. The marginal cost of production is constant e.g. İt costs 10 TL to produce each additional unit of software. But the average cost is declining. The first unit costs F to produce because of the fixed cost of the idea, which is also the average cost of the first unit. A higher levels of production, this fixed cost is spread over more and more units so that the average cost declines with scale.

45 If P = MC Assume that AC>MC If MC=P. With increasing returns to scale average cost is always greater than marginal cost and therefore marginal cost pricing result in negative profits. In another words, no firm would enter this marketand pay the fixed cost F to develop the computer software if it could not set the price above the marginal cost of producing additional unit. Firms will enter only if they can charge a price higher than marginal cost that allows them to recoup the fixed cost of creating the good in the first place. It is essential to be away from perfect competition.

46 Conclusion Questions Discussions