Fundamentals of Demand Planning Training Course -V 0.3

Transcription

1 Planning Training Course -V /09/2015

2 2 Table of Content 1. Introduction 3 2. Who Should Take it 3 3. Benefits 3 4. Course Structure 4 5. Course Outline 4

3 3 1. Introduction Inventory can be one of the most expensive assets of an organization and may account for more than 10% of the total revenues or 20% of the total assets. This course provides its attendees with an overview of the different techniques used to generate demand forecasts from sales history and the means to apply these forecasts to minimize inventory investments while increasing customer satisfaction. In a modern, lean supply chain, accurate forecasts are critical to achieving supply chain success. Today, there is greater realization for the value and need for competency in managing demand. Understanding of the forecasting process and requirements for an accurate forecast are a necessity for any executive involved in the demand forecasting process. This course will highlight in detail the principles of demand management, forecasting, and the relationship between forecasting and planning. The course demonstrates how effective demand management contributes to sales revenue growth and also describes in detail the models and techniques that can be followed to ensure an accurate forecast and a sustainable outcome. 2. Who Should Take it This course is directed to executives with responsibilities in the manufacturing, retail, distribution and services industries. That includes Demand Planning/Management, Inventory Management, Supply Chain Management, Logistics & Operations, Sales & Marketing, Supply Planning/Management, Manufacturing as well as Scheduling & Planning. 3. Benefits: Audience who has completed the course will: Have a fundamental understanding of demand management Have a fundamental understanding of the forecasting process Perceive the significance of the various statistical models and techniques used to prepare accurate demand forecasts Be able to apply simple tools and methods to produce more accurate and reliable demand plans Be able to increase communication and integration of planning teams

4 4 4. Course Structure: Audience who has completed the course will: The course duration is 2 full days. The course is presented in the form of a power point presentation including Q&A session and some evaluation quizzes. Attendees are expected to take notes as handouts are minimal. 5. Course Outline: 5.1 Stocks and Inventories Definitions Reasons for holding stock Types of stock Classification of stock 5.2 The Role of Forecasting in Managing the Supply Chain Overview of the supply chain What is forecasting? The role of forecasting in your supply chain The flow of information The goal of forecasting Business planning framework Impact of forecasting on decision making Impact of forecasting on inventory management 5.3 Demand Management Demand Demand management Demand planning v/s forecasting Sources of demand Factors influencing demand Sources of demand variability Supply chain dynamics Key roles and responsibilities 5.4 Developing and Managing the Forecasting Process Process design factors and forecasting process Framework for developing a forecasting process Process design factors and considerations Management support and considerations Forecasting philosophies Data collection considerations Forecasting models

5 5 5.5 Sales and Operations Planning S&OP goals and objectives S&OP best practices S&OP meeting activity 5.6 Collaborative Planning Types of collaboration Collaborative forecasting Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment Ingredients of successful CPFR 5.7 Forecasting Best Practices Data Collection and Analysis Data Cleansing Methods and Models Communication Key process considerations Worst practices in forecasting 5.8 Forecast Model Selection and Management Selection criteria Data pattern Time horizon Forecasting model run Ongoing improvement 5.9 Forecasting through a Product s Lifecycle Selection criteria How to develop new product forecasts How to identify demand trends on new products Techniques for forecasting a product through each of the pre-launch, launch, growth and maturity phases Cannibalization Sources of information 5.10 Calculating Safety Stock Levels The stock-out probability The desired level of customer service to satisfy product demand 5.11 Measuring Forecast Accuracy How to measure Forecast accuracy Forecast bias Forecast error Trading days and moving holidays 5.12 Case Studies 5.13 Interactive Session