Rio/29 Phase 1 Briefing. Rio/29 Small Area Plan Phase 1 January 18, 2017

Transcription

1 Rio/29 Phase 1 Briefing Rio/29 Small Area Plan Phase 1 January 18, 2017

2 PRESENTATION OVERVIEW 1 PROCESS 2 KEY CONCEPTS & CONCLUSIONS 3 APPLYING THE CONCEPT AT RIO/ CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION

3 Outcomes of Today s Work Session Share findings from Phase I Validation of fundamental concepts (e.g. nodal pattern) What was learned from Phase I What will be needed for Phase II Receive initial reactions on the direction of the work Address any questions Provide a solid foundation for future action/meetings

4 1 PROCESS

5 STUDY AREA

6 PROCESS Objectives Assess study area conditions and market potential Affirm/update Places29 vision Outreach to public and stakeholders on desired future for area Develop alternatives for future development Timeline: 10 months (May, 2016 February, 2017) Initiation/ Reconnaissance Market Assessment Study Area Analysis Alternatives Generation Final Documentation Engagement 2 public meetings, 2 property/land owner focus group meetings, 3 Citizen Advisory Committee meetings, 2 technical committee meetings (staff level), site tour with staff/county officials PROCESS

7 2 KEY CONCEPTS & CONCLUSIONS

8 WHAT DID WE FIND OUT? Key Takeaways from this Phase 1. The future vision for Rio/29 is Transformational not a continuation of current trends. 2. The key concept for this transformational vision vision is the 15 minute walkable community 3. This concept organizes future development/redevelopment into Nodes 4. This phase defined 3 potential Nodes with clear priorities and phasing intent for each Questions to be answered in the Next Phase 1. The detailed design of the Node(s) 2. The transportation strategy for this Vision 3. The zoning, infrastructure and other implementation strategies needed to realize this Vision 1. Includes development of new code for this pilot area KEY TAKEAWAYS 8

9 WHAT IS A 15-MINUTE WALKABLE COMMUNITY? ARLINGTON, VA CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA THE KEY CONCEPT

10 15-MINUTE WALKABLE COMMUNITY CHARACTERISTICS 1/4 to 1/2 mile radius Mix of uses with high to medium density Connected streets that support all modes of travel BENEFITS Supports health, active transportation Supports property values Internal trip capture (People can meet needs within the neighborhood, reducing pressure on arterial roads/highways) Less pressure on extending infrastructure to support peripheral development Meets growing Millennial/Baby Boomer demand for walkable communities Opportunity for empty-nesters and retirees to have an option for less rural, suburban option Source: AARP THE KEY CONCEPT

11 PLACES 29 THE KEY CONCEPT THE KEY TO MAKING RIO/29 A SPECIAL PLACE Source: Places 29 THE KEY CONCEPT

12 RIO/29 Source: Pictometry

13 Downtown Charlottesville Source: Pictometry

14 The Village at Shirlington Source: Pictometry

15 Belmar, Lakewood, CO Source: Pictometry

16 THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY COUNTY POLICY Vision Comp Plan (Development Areas) Places29 Compact development.organized around centers Pedestrian-oriented and mixed-use. Connected by multimodal transportation Parks and open spaces contribute to an overall excellent quality of life THE KEY CONCEPT 16

17 THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY MARKET TRENDS Millennial and Baby Boomer preferences Growing population and economy with limited land for urban intensity development Softening retail market nationally and locally may create an opening for redevelopment Millennials Source: Vtrans.org; Investing in place for economic growth and competitiveness; A Research Summary; May 2014 THE KEY CONCEPT

18 GROWING POPULATION IN ALBEMARLE + CHARLOTTESVILLE 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Population Trend to to 2015 average annual growth of 1.4% Trend brings county + city population to about 200,000 by Increase of about 48,000 people. How much growth will go in the development areas versus infill in the city or sprawl into outlying counties? Source: Weldon Cooper Center THE KEY CONCEPT 18

19 THE QUICKLY CHANGING RETAIL MARKET New Retail Square Footage in the US: 177 mil. in mil. in 2015 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 1.7% From 2015 to 2016 ON LINE RETAILER GROWTH 10.7% From 2015 to 2016 THE KEY CONCEPT

20 THE CONCEPT IS SUPPORTED BY POSITIVE PUBLIC FEEDBACK THE KEY CONCEPT

21 BUT WITH A FEW KEY CAVEATS Concern about traffic on 29 Concentrate density rather than spread out and create a Route 29 canyon Minimize impacts on existing residential neighborhoods Minimize impacts on view sheds (concern about height) THE KEY CONCEPT

22 BOTTOM LINE Strong support for the concept of 15-minute walkable communities that contain a mix of uses as nodes of development. The key question of Phase 1 is where should these nodes be located? THE KEY CONCEPT

23 3 APPLYING THE CONCEPT AT RIO/29

24 GUIDING PRINCIPLES - PLAN 1. PLACE MAKING: Create a place where people and employers want to be 2. MIXED USE: Introduce more housing and employment uses to make a complete community 3. MULTIMODAL: Connectivity, transit, trails, and walk/bike friendly streets 4. OPEN SPACE & RECREATION: Parks, open spaces, buffers and river access 5. NEIGHBORHOOD PROTECTION: Balance the need for height and density to make redevelopment feasible with community concerns about local impacts and view sheds 6. INTERGENERATIONAL COMMUNITY: Mix of housing types and transportation options to meet the needs of people of all ages 7. VISITOR GATEWAY: Design and gateway features tell travelers they have arrived in a special place APPLYING THE CONCEPT

25 NODES OF DEVELOPMENT The Urban Land Institute identifies 10 core principles for Reinventing the Suburban Strip Core Principle APPLYING THE CONCEPT

26 HOW THE NODE OPTIONS WERE DEVELOPED PLACES 29/PLANS PUBLIC / STAKEHOLDER INPUT PLANNING PRINCIPLES APPLYING THE CONCEPT 26

27 1 Node Rio/29 2 Nodes Rio/29 & River/29 3 Nodes Rio, River, and Gander/29

28 PHASING & POTENTIAL POLICY DIRECTION Rio/29 Node Strongest support for a major node at Rio/29 that transforms the 4 quadrants over the long-term into downtown Albemarle Should be the primary policy direction to implement River/29 Node Secondary support for smaller node oriented to the Rivanna and supporting the county s growing hospitality and tourism sector Should support, not detract from implementing the Rio/29 Node Will probably develop later in time, depending on development pace at Rio/29 Gander/29 Node Potential third node but only if it works from a BRT analysis perspective and market perspective depending on its timing Should only be supported if the other two Nodes are successful APPLYING THE CONCEPT

29 What about areas outside the nodes? Develop as a mixture of the following uses: What about other centers? Secondary centers along Berkmar could be served by local circulator bus lines

30 WHAT COULD THE NODES LOOK LIKE? DESIGN CHARACTER AT NODE CENTER NODE PERIPHERY TARGET LAND USE MIX DENSITY 60% office 20% high density residential 20% retail Up to 60 units per acre (housing) Up to 1.5 gross floor area ratio 50% high density residential 20% townhomes 20% office, 10% retail 20 units multifamily/ 8 townhomes per acre. 0.5 gross floor area ratio HEIGHT Mid-rise Low-rise GREEN SPACE 1 centrally-located major civic space/plaza Minor pocket parks, trail connections Centrally-located parks or plazas in walk distance, trail connections to green space STREET CONNECTIVITY 200 to 400-foot block lengths 300 to 400-foot block lengths APPLYING THE CONCEPT

31 WHAT COULD THE NODES LOOK LIKE?

32 WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE) Credit: Steve Price, Urban Advantage (Places29 study) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

33 WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

34 WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

35 WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

36 WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

37 WHAT COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? (RIO/29 NODE) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

38 Oyster Point City Center, Newport News, VA

39 Carlisle, Alexandria, VA

40 MARKET ASSESSMENT PURPOSE Market assessment explored if this vision is supportable by the market demand indicated by recent trends and forecast growth. Key Caveats: The vision is transformative rather than a continuation of trends. The regional market is growing and county growth policies encourage substantial redevelopment in the study area. These two caveats indicate potential for more development than an extension of trends, but the vision depends on redevelopment. APPLYING THE CONCEPT

41 MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Capture Rate Assumptions - Residential Multifamily is the most likely housing type in the study area; will likely take a different form than traditionally seen in area Regional forecast calls for about 2,800 units over next 20 years 29 North area has captured about 20% over the last decade Assumed a moderate future capture of between 20 and 30%; may mean the county being more proactive Capture Rate Assumptions Office 20-year forecast of 5,777 new office-using jobs Would require 1.44 million square feet of new space (assumes 250 square feet per employee) Will likely take a different form - particularly for target industries - with research/development, flex, and industrial space 29 North has captured about 30% over the last decade Assumed a moderate future capture of between 30 and 40%; may mean the county being more proactive Capture Rate Assumptions Retail Many national factors are working against retail development Projection of little or zero net change Capture Rate Assumptions Hotel Regional hotel market will grow at the rate of the economy Assumed about 2,500 new hotel rooms over the next 20 years Assumed a moderate future capture of between 20 and 30% Sources: Moody s Analytics (office and multifamily housing), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (hotel) APPLYING THE CONCEPT

42 MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Product Type Residential Office Retail Hotel 20-Year Development Potential for the Rio/29 Study Area 550 to 850 multifamily units 430,000 to 580,000 square feet Re-tenanting and renovation of viable centers; selective addition of retailers and restaurants that offer compelling products and experiences, and look for a sense of place 500 to 750 rooms, or 4 to 6 hotels Can likely see at least this much development or more if the direction is transformational APPLYING THE CONCEPT

43 WHAT DOES THIS TELL US? Market demand for housing, office, and hotel is healthy based on recent trends. Impossible to predict the market demand for transformational change (15-minute walkable), but national trends point in that direction. Phasing important so the other 2 nodes do not absorb demand before Rio/29 node. Industrial difficult to predict given lack of industry in this area; the outlook for high tech industrial uses in the study area should come into focus with the Economic Development Strategic Plan. APPLYING THE CONCEPT

44 4 CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 44

45 TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS Increasing amount and intensity of development will generate additional trips in the area. Enhanced transit (BRT) is one key to make this concept work. Internal capture through mixed use / urban design is another key transportation principle Walkability supports both CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 45

46 FUTURE TRANSIT AS AN ORGANIZING FEATURE Source: Places29 CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

47 A NOTE ON TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL TOD APPLYING THE CONCEPT = CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TOD LIVABLE COMMUNITIES TRAVEL CHOICES CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 47

48 BRT EXAMPLE 48

49 BRT EXAMPLE 49

50 PEDESTRIANS & ROUTE 29 Public outreach revealed concern about Route 29 dividing the study area, and creating an obstacle to building a walkable environment. Addressing this would require both: Creation of self-contained walkable nodes in the quadrants Safe crossing points along 29 Image Source: Places29 CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

51 MAKING IT EASIER TO BUILD THE VISION Challenges raised by Developers/Property Owners that are within the county s purview: Height limits Zoning (match future zoning with future vision to facilitate development) Flexibility in use Transportation (public transit viewed as a solution, but need supportive density) Incentives to take on the risk of redevelopment Such as TIF, higher allowed density, and formbased zoning Assistance with infrastructure Vision will require structured parking, internal streets, trails, stormwater management, etc. CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

52 5 NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION 52

53 Conclusions Validation of future land use direction Transform existing development pattern, applying node concept to create walkable centers Identified 3 possible nodes; focus initially at Rio/29 Identification of issues to be addressed in Phase II Transportation challenges posed by increasing development & economic activity in the area Further analyzing market factors affecting development potential, such as demographic change influences (for example, aging up millennials and baby boomers, and increasing income and purchasing power) Incorporating Economic Development Strategic Plan influences into the area plan Limitations Few datasets reflect the study area boundary for a market assessment; need to cobble together many data sources or invest time to create new datasets Inherent challenge of applying market assessment techniques to a transformational, long-term vision Public feedback Concern about ability to cross Route 29 on foot/bike Concern about height of development, effect on adjacent low density residential areas, avoiding a 29 canyon NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION

54 OUTCOMES OF TODAY S WORK SESSION Share findings from Phase I Validation of fundamental concepts (e.g. nodal pattern) What was learned from Phase I What will be needed for Phase II Receive initial reactions on the direction of the work Address any questions Next Steps - Provide a solid foundation for future action/meetings Must provide details and clarity about what to expect in Phase II before endorsement of Phase I is complete. Therefore: Planning Commission mid-february (14 or 21?) Board of Supervisors March 1 Proposed endorsement of Phase I and approach to Phase II - April NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION

55 NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION Next Steps Brief report Scoping of Phase 2 analysis needed to address many of the concerns and challenges raised Discussion, Comments, & Questions NEXT STEPS & DISCUSSION 55

56 Additional Supporting Slides To use if needed

57 MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Study Area Today General Land Use Category Acres Retail Light Industrial 69.5 Residential multifamily 67.5 Office 59.8 Civic 31.3 Population 2,283 residents, 917 dwelling units (95% multifamily) Very few vacant parcels Source: Albemarle County APPLYING THE CONCEPT

58 MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Net Employment Change Accommodation & Food Services Health Care & Social Assistance Admin. & Support & Waste Retail Trade Prof., Scientific, & Tech. Serv. Other Services Finance & Insurance Company Management Educational Services Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Wholesale Trade Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Manufacturing Information Construction Study Area Forecast (left) 2,500 jobs over 20 years. Retail dominates, but slow growth anticipated. Vacancy rate is rising. Regional growth forecast of about 5,800 new officeusing jobs over 20 years Source: VEC, QCEW reports 2005, 2015; County of Albemarle Economic Development Office historic growth rate projections. Moody s Analytics for regional (Albemarle + Charlottesville) forecast. APPLYING THE CONCEPT

59 MARKET-SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES 24,000 16,000 8,000 - Population in Area D.U. Population 19,417 18,276 17,202 16,191 9,665 8,881 8,160 7, Neighborhoods 1 & 2 which encompass the study area have grown by about 3,500 people over 20 years Extending the trend adds about 220 people & 150 housing units per year Regional trends would add about 48,000 people in Albemarle + C Ville over the next 20 years Source: Albemarle County APPLYING THE CONCEPT

60 RESIDENTIAL LAND CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR STUDY AREA This table below shows the potential for new housing in the study area under the county s policies in the comprehensive plan and existing zoning. May accommodate housing demand for 10 to 20 years, but will likely require redevelopment. Analysis Components Comprehensive Plan Existing Zoning Vacant Residential Acreage acres acres Low-High Density Range 6 to 34 units per acre 6 to 20 units per acre # of Possible Units on Vacant Buildable Land 189 to 1, to 814 Unbuilt Pipeline Units Future Housing Capacity (potential additional dwellings) 298 to 1,790 1,254 to 1,623 APPLYING THE CONCEPT 60