LDN Market Barometer

Transcription

1 LDN Market Barometer 4 th Quarter 21 and forecast for 1 st Quarter 211 Introduction This report is compiled by Pardo Fox Ltd for the members of the IITT s Learning Directors Network. It is based around a series of index numbers indicating growth or decline of various segments of the market, not absolute numbers or volumes. The scale ranges from +5 to -5, where represents neither growth nor decline, +5 represents growth in excess of 1% for all training companies and -5 represents decline in excess of 1% for all training companies compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Revenue refers to training delivered in the quarter and not bookings for future courses. All data shown in this report pre-dating Q4 of 28 was produced by Pardo Fox Ltd for the IT Skills Research programme. It was compiled using the same methodology. We received input this time from 27 companies whose combined revenues represent well over 5% of the UK market. We are grateful to them for their participation. IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 1

2 The recession is over but not for everyone! The survey data points to a very strong recovery in Q4, with the revenue growth indices showing further improvements over Q3. The unweighted Training Revenue Index was 3 against a forecast (based on data collected in November) of 24, suggesting that many providers were taken by surprise by the strength of the recovery. The weighted index, at 38, was even further ahead of the 23 that was forecast. Both the unweighted and weighted indices were the highest values recorded since 21. Based on actual growth rates cited by respondents, it appears that the market grew by about 15% in Q4, compared with Q4 of 29. However, the recovery is not uniform across all subject areas or all suppliers. Indeed, some companies reported declining or flat revenues in Q4. In addition, respondents qualitative inputs are not as emphatically positive as the numerical data might suggest see their comments on page 9. The data indicates that the recovery is continuing into Q1 of 211, with forecasts of 36 for the unweighted and 33 for the weighted Training Revenue Index. Expectations for the actual growth rate are a little more modest compared with Q4, at about 9%. Revenue Indices 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 Total Training Revenue - unweighted (3) (2) Total Training Revenue - weighted (17) The chart below shows how total IT training revenue has grown or declined in each quarter over the last four years. The solid bar indicates the average growth index of the contributing companies; the line graph represents the index number when due allowance has been given to the relative size of those companies. The dots in the 11Q1 column indicate the forecast rate of growth of the current quarter compared with the same quarter of Total Training Revenue -5 Unweighted Weighted IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 2

3 The Training Profit Index (at 3) was also ahead of last quarter s forecast (24), and was still higher than in Q3 (13). As in previous quarters, this indicates that top-line growth migrates readily to the bottom line which implies that despite continuing concerns about pricing (and as pointed out in our last report), not all additional revenue is being gained with rock-bottom prices and expensive inducements. Profit Index 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 Total Training Profit Training Profit 5-5 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 11Q1 There is no weighted index for profit. IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 3

4 Instructor-led Training Please note: this quarter we have introduced additional categories to increase the scope of the Market Barometer, while maintaining the existing categories to ensure continuity of data. The ILT sector appears to have experienced a quite remarkable upturn in business in Q4: IT user training, which had registered a positive index only once in the previous two years, surged to the dizzy heights of 27; IT professional technical increased to a similar value; personal, professional & business skills (including Project Management and ITIL) showed a welcome return to growth; and the newly-listed Compliance category delivered the highest value of all at 28. Public scheduled courses consolidated the improvement they had delivered in Q3, reaching their highest index value for three years, while on-site courses continued to grow even more strongly than public scheduled. Forecast index values for Q1 211 predict a further acceleration in growth rates in the large and therefore important ILT sector. Instructor-led Training Indices 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 IT user (5) (2) 27 IT professional technical (5) (3) Personal, professional & business skills (1) (8) (2) 19 Leadership & management 13 Compliance 28 Other 17 Public (scheduled) courses (12) (18) 4 13 On-site (one-customer) courses (1) Total ILT Revenue - unweighted (7) (6) Total ILT Revenue - weighted (22) ILT Revenue -5 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 11Q1 Unweighted Weighted IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 4

5 Learning Technologies Revenue All learning technologies categories again showed vibrant growth and outperformed their forecast, though there was a slight moderation in the index for bespoke development. After years of unpredictable oscillations, the learning technologies market seems steadier and more consistent now, and its healthy growth looks set to continue. Learning Technologies Indices 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 Generic content Tools Infrastructure Development Consultancy Total Learning Tech Revenues - unweighted Total Learning Tech Revenues - weighted Learning Technologies Revenue -5 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 11Q1 Unweighted Weighted Generic Content includes generic courseware, templates, and models Tools includes authoring, performance support, virtual labs, simulation, collaboration, modelling, and assessment tools Infrastructure includes LMS/ LCMS/CLS, enterprise content management, performance management, competence management, e-skills portfolio management, social networks Development: the facilitation of client content and bespoke development of solutions using learning technologies Consultancy: services that support the client in the application of learning technologies - includes strategy, vision and direction, engagement models, advice and guidance. IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 5

6 Learning Support Services Please note: For the current survey, only a minority of respondents provided input for this category, and several of these have only small revenues from Learning Support Services. The use of these revenues as weightings (in calculating the weighted index) accounts for the wide disparity between the weighted and unweighted index figures. Perhaps surprisingly, the index figure of 8 for outsourcing and managed training services (MTS) was more modest than expected, but may be attributable to delays between contract signature and revenue recognition. Certainly the forecast index values for Q1 211 point to improvements more closely aligned with the upturn in the rest of the market. Learning Support Services Indices 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 Outsourcing and MTS Pre- & post-training consultancy/support Total LSS Revenues - unweighted (2) Total LSS Revenues - weighted (5) Learning Support Services Revenue -5 Unweighted Weighted IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 6

7 Certification Please note: a new non-it category has been added. Certification for IT professionals continued its modest growth pattern, while end-user certification moved out of the doldrums to post its best showing in three years. Certification Indices 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 IT Professionals End-users (13) (11) 3 21 Non-IT Total Certification Certification -5 Combined IT Professional End-user On the following pages are some of the comments from contributors to the survey. IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 7

8 Which subject groups saw the biggest increases in your training revenues last quarter? Across the board everything went up. Public schedule courses. Advanced level technical professional training. Bepoke content to deliver tailored courses across IT and PM. Managerial and Leadership programmes. Leadership & Behavioural. Global Microsoft Office roll outs. Data Domain. Virtualisation. Security Software Products. NetApp, Citrix. None, Storage still holding its own. IT for Business Users. Rapid Learning Tools. Video, Data Center, Software tools. Acceleration Software. Legislation systems training. Apprenticeships. University students/academics and specialist area businesses. Which subject groups saw the biggest decreases in your training revenues last quarter? None. (x4) No change. (x2) No major change in any single group. All other areas fairly flat. Mostly steady. IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 8

9 ILT. MS Office public schedule, e-learning. MS Office. Bespoke internal IT training. Compliance. Diversity (temporary suspension). Have you noticed any recent or unusual changes in the market, or do you have any comment on the state of the training market generally? Truly dreadful quarter, our worst of the last 1 years. Fortunately this one is looking much better. Still declining, but the rate seems to have slowed. January showed a bit of a spike in bookings, but Feb has slowed again. Still highly price sensitive with public schedule training down. The trends have not changed since the last survey. Later bookings, customer expectation of discounts against RRP. Customers continue to be conservative given the economic environment. This may get better or worse as the reality of Government recovery programs become known. Procurement now invariably involved in the negotiation process, even for relatively low value transactions. There's no one left! The IT training market is now a handful of broad players with most of the market and then a bunch of siloed companies doing: PM, Sharepoint, end user etc. Certainly more enquiries and requests for online and e-learning format training. Still cautious but increasing acceptance that e-learning allows the HR/L&D functions to "do more with less". Increased demand for consultancy and services to support on-line programmes. Still limited uptake of virtual learning. Appears to be an uplift in public training since September, which is continuing in to has started very strongly. For us the market is healthy and large contracts are still being tendered. Increased demand for complete managed services. We're having record months, absolutely knocking it out of the park - close to a 5% increase year on year. Bonkers but brilliant. IITT Learning Directors Network 211 Page 9