Selecting La Mesa s Retail Sites Retail Site 1 Analysis Retail Site 2 Analysis Retail Site 3 Analysis... 6

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1 Retail Site Assessment April 2011

2 Table of Contents Selecting La Mesa s Retail Sites... 1 Retail Site 1 Analysis... 2 Retail Site 2 Analysis... 4 Retail Site 3 Analysis... 6 Appendix A: Leakage and Demand Analysis Appendix B: Demographic Report Appendix C: Segmentation Guide Buxton CommunityID Staff Lisa Hill, Vice President/CommunityID Division, lhill@buxtonco.com Bill Shelton, Partner/CommunityID Division, bshelton@buxtonco.com Janet Ehret, Client Services, jehret@buxtonco.com Philip Davis, Manager/Senior GIS Analyst, pdavis@buxtonco.com Nadine Grosse, Senior GIS Analyst, ngrosse@buxtonco.com All Buxton personnel may be reached by phone at Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions

3 Selecting La Mesa s Retail Sites To begin the CommunityID process, the City of La Mesa selected three sites to be analyzed for possible retail development or revitalization. The locations of the three sites are shown on the following page. Buxton has examined the retail potential of the three sites based on the following analyses: A primary drive time trade area was delineated for each site The customers in each trade area were segmented according to buying habits and lifestyles A profile of La Mesa s customers within each of the three trade areas was developed The surplus and leakage for 11 major store types and 49 minor store types were determined for the trade area The purpose of these analyses is to develop La Mesa s Customer Profile. The Customer Profile is a snapshot of the customers that reside in La Mesa s trade area. Even though these consumers are complex and diverse, Buxton is able to capture and catalogue the extent to which potential demand for a retailer s goods and services are being met within the trade area. By overlaying La Mesa s Customer Profile with over 4,500 retail matching profiles in Buxton s proprietary database, we are able to identify major categories of retail that are candidates for location in La Mesa. This matching provides the basis for determining La Mesa s viability to attract retailers and restaurants and forms the basis for Buxton s recommendations and conclusions. With this analysis and Buxton s recommendations, La Mesa can make a more informed decision about investments in infrastructure and can focus resources on areas of higher retail development potential. 1

4 "Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian" "National Business Database Source: Experian" "Census Estimates and Projections N 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions""Source:2011 usretailcenters.com/theretailplanet.com." 125 &% Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive l l GROSSMONT CENTER Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive 8 12 La Mesa l La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street 125 &% 94 $ # COLLEGE GROVE CENTER Lemon Grove La Mesa, California: Overview Shopping Centers GLA in thousands to 1000 City Limits l Site 1 l Site 2 l Site 3 Miles S. Polaris Dr. Fort Worth, Texas tel: fax: buxton@buxtonco.com

5 "Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian" "National Business Database Source: Experian" "Census Estimates and Projections N 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions""Source:2011 usretailcenters.com/theretailplanet.com." 52 $ # Santee SANTEE TOWN CENTER $# 67 Bostonia 15 $ # 125 &% WESTFIELD PARKWAY El Cajon #$ La Mesa l GROSSMONT CENTER La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street $# 94 COLLEGE GROVE CENTER Lemon Grove RANCHO SAN DIEGO TOWNE CENTER Spring Valley $# 54 La Presa 5 21 National City La Mesa, California: Trade Area Shopping Centers GLA in thousands to Minute Drive Time l Site 1 Miles S. Polaris Dr. Fort Worth, Texas tel: fax: buxton@buxtonco.com

6 Site 1 Analysis: La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street Drive Time Trade Area The map on the previous page depicts the primary trade area for Site 1. The primary trade area consists of a nine minute polygon, determined by Buxton s proprietary drive time technology. Psychographics The psychographic profile of the households within a nine minute drive time of Site 1 is presented below. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data Dominant Segments A segment that represents at least three percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. By determining dominant segments and reviewing their segment descriptions, lifestyle habits and preferences can be identified. Please refer to Appendix C for additional segment description information. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 2

7 Site 1 Analysis (continued) Leakage Analysis The following table represents an overview by store type of the leakage or surplus within the studied trade area. This is represented by an index with 1.0 being the baseline. A leakage is reflected by an index less than 1.0 and a surplus is reflected by an index greater than 1.0. Please see Appendix A for detailed demand and actual sales by category. Source: Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data The following table presents the trade potential variables for Site 1: Trade Potential Variables Site 1 Estimated Household Count 99,616 Number of Households in Dominant Segments 70,478 Traffic Count 24,400 Total Demand Total Supply $2,076,151,687 $3,159,563,446 Leakage/Surplus $1,083,411,759 Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 3

8 "Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian" "National Business Database Source: Experian" "Census Estimates and Projections San Diego N 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions""Source:2011 usretailcenters.com/theretailplanet.com." $# $ # Santee SANTEE TOWN CENTER Lakeside Winter Gardens 125 &% $# 67 El Cajon Bostonia $# 54 WESTFIELD PARKWAY $ # Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive 8 21 $# 94 l GROSSMONT CENTER La Mesa Casa de Oro-Mount Helix COLLEGE GROVE CENTER RANCHO SAN DIEGO TOWNE CENTER Rancho San Diego # $ Lemon Grove $# 54 Spring Valley $ # 94 La Presa 5 21 National City La Mesa, California: Trade Area Shopping Centers GLA in thousands to Minute Drive Time l Site 2 Miles S. Polaris Dr. Fort Worth, Texas tel: fax: buxton@buxtonco.com

9 Site 2 Analysis: Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive Drive Time Trade Area The map on the previous page depicts the primary trade area for Site 2. The primary trade area consists of a nine minute polygon, determined by Buxton s proprietary drive time technology. Psychographics The psychographic profile of the households within a nine minute drive time of Site 2 is presented below. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data Dominant Segments A segment that represents at least three percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. By determining dominant segments and reviewing their segment descriptions, lifestyle habits and preferences can be identified. Please refer to Appendix C for additional segment description information. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 4

10 Site 2 Analysis (continued) Leakage Analysis The following table represents an overview by store type of the leakage or surplus within the studied trade area. This is represented by an index with 1.0 being the baseline. A leakage is reflected by an index less than 1.0 and a surplus is reflected by an index greater than 1.0. Please see Appendix A for detailed demand and actual sales by category. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data The following table presents the trade potential variables for Site 2: Trade Potential Variables Site 2 Estimated Household Count 99,397 Number of Households in Dominant Segments 70,302 Traffic Count 20,700 Total Demand Total Supply $1,993,385,141 $3,218,704,007 Leakage/Surplus $1,225,318,866 Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 5

11 "Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian" "National Business Database Source: Experian" "Census Estimates and Projections N 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions""Source:2011 usretailcenters.com/theretailplanet.com." San Diego $# $ # Santee SANTEE TOWN CENTER 5 3S 15 $ # 125 &% $# 67 Bostonia WESTFIELD PARKWAY El Cajon 8 21 WESTFIELD MISSION VALLEY 15 $ # 8 21 l La Mesa $# 94 COLLEGE GROVE CENTER GROSSMONT CENTER Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive 125 &% Lemon Grove Spring Valley $# #$ 805 La Presa Casa de Oro-Mount Helix #$ 54 Rancho San Diego RANCHO SAN DIEGO TOWNE CENTER $ # National City 54 $ # La Mesa, California: Trade Area Shopping Centers GLA in thousands to Minute Drive Time l Site 3 Miles S. Polaris Dr. Fort Worth, Texas tel: fax: buxton@buxtonco.com

12 Site 3 Analysis: Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive Drive Time Trade Area The map on the previous page depicts the primary trade area for Site 3. The primary trade area consists of a nine minute polygon, determined by Buxton s proprietary drive time technology. Psychographics The psychographic profile of the households within a nine minute drive time of Site 3 is presented below. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data Dominant Segments A segment that represents at least three percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. By determining dominant segments and reviewing their segment descriptions, lifestyle habits and preferences can be identified. Please refer to Appendix C for additional segment description information. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 6

13 Site 3 Analysis (continued) Leakage Analysis The following table represents an overview by store type of the leakage or surplus within the studied trade area. This is represented by an index with 1.0 being the baseline. A leakage is reflected by an index less than 1.0 and a surplus is reflected by an index greater than 1.0. Please see Appendix A for detailed demand and actual sales by category. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data The following table presents the trade potential variables for Site 3: Trade Potential Variables Site 3 Estimated Household Count 112,021 Number of Households in Dominant Segments 76,972 Traffic Count 24,900 Total Demand Total Supply $2,020,208,615 $3,495,403,675 Leakage/Surplus $1,475,195,060 Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 7

14 Site Comparison Trade Area Segmentation This side by side comparison of the three trade areas shows the compositions and characteristics of the households to be very similar. This is not unusual and can be expected in an area with potential sites in close proximity. Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 9 Minute Trade Area Statistics Trade Potential Variables Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Estimated Household Count 99,616 99, ,021 Number of Households in Dominant Segments 70,478 70,302 76,972 Traffic Count 24,400 20,700 24,900 Total Demand $2,076,151,687 $1,993,385,141 $2,020,208,615 Total Supply $3,159,563,446 $3,218,704,007 $3,495,403,675 Leakage/Surplus $1,083,411,759 $1,225,318,866 $1,475,195,060 Mosaic USA is a registered trademark of Experian; Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000: Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data 8

15 Appendix A: Leakage Analysis

16 Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis The Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis examines the quantitative aspect of the community's retail opportunities. It is a guide to understanding retail opportunities but it is not an analysis that indicates unconditional opportunities. The analysis is sometimes called "a gap analysis" or "a supply and demand analysis" and can aid in the following: -Indicating how well the retail needs of local residents are being met -Uncovering unmet demand and possible opportunities -Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the local retail sector -Measuring the difference between actual and potential retail sales Understanding Retail Leakage Retail leakage means that residents are spending more for products than local businesses capture. Retail sales leakage suggests that there is unmet demand in the trade area and that the community can support additional store space for that type of business. However, retail leakage does not necessarily translate into opportunity. For example, there could be a strong competitor in a neighboring community that dominates the market for that type of product or store. Understanding Retail Surplus A retail surplus means that the community's trade area is capturing the local market plus attracting non-local shoppers. A retail surplus does not necessarily mean that the community cannot support additional business. Many communities have developed strong clusters of stores that have broad geographic appeal. Examples of these types of retailers include: sporting goods stores, home furnishing stores, restaurants, and other specialty operations that become destination retailers and draw customers from outside the trade area. Examining the quantitative aspects (Leakage/Surplus) is only part of the evaluation of community's retail opportunities. Before any conclusions can be drawn about potential business expansion or recruitment opportunities, qualitative considerations such as trade area psychographics and buying habits must be analyzed in context of other market factors. Interpreting Leakage Index 1.0 = equilibrium, meaning that demand and sales in the area being analyzed are in balance..80 = demand exceeds sales by 20%, meaning that consumers are leaving the area being analyzed. 1.2 = sales exceed demand by 20%, meaning that consumers are coming from outside the area being analyzed.

17 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Leakage/Surplus Index by Major Store Type The quantitative comparison of retail leakage and surplus in the twelve major store types shown in the chart and table below provides an initial measure of market opportunities. Combining this analysis with the knowledge of the local retail situation will take the process of identifying retail possibilities one step further. Figure 1 provides the leakage/surplus indices and following is the sales potential and actual sales for major store types. Figure 1. Leakage/Surplus Index and Actual and Potential Sales by Major Store Types Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers 471,771, ,585, Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 61,445,918 69,900, Electronics & Appliance Stores 61,680,362 44,035, Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 243,422, ,645, Food & Beverage Stores 314,569, ,943, Health & Personal Care Stores 116,930, ,826, Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 120,790, ,941, Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 49,472,684 73,827, General Merchandise Stores 305,351, ,045, Miscellaneous Store Retailers 63,731,058 72,188, Foodservice & Drinking Places 266,985, ,622, Total 2,076,151,687 3,159,563, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

18 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Automotive Dealers 405,140, ,003, Expenditures at Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 29,044,515 28,019, Expenditures at Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 37,586,708 54,562, Total Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers 471,771, ,585, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

19 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Furniture Stores 34,088,376 36,430, Expenditures at Home Furnishing Stores 27,357,543 33,469, Total Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 61,445,918 69,900, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

20 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Electronics & Appliance Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Appliance, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 46,973,237 34,480, Expenditures at Computer and Software Stores 12,440,714 7,081, Expenditures at Camera and Photographic Equipment Stores 2,266,410 2,474, Total Electronics & Appliance Stores 61,680,362 44,035, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

21 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Home Centers 90,172, ,232, Expenditures at Paint and Wallpaper Stores 5,199,498 12,816, Expenditures at Hardware Stores 19,520,289 7,995, Expenditures at Other Building Materials Dealers 108,343, ,410, Expenditures at Outdoor Power Equipment Stores 3,003,367 1,228, Expenditures at Nursery and Garden Centers 17,183,722 4,961, Total Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 243,422, ,645, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

22 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Food & Beverage Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 271,627, ,137, Expenditures at Convenience Stores 13,794,501 25,874, Expenditures at Specialty Food Stores 9,148,735 9,475, Expenditures at Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 19,998,758 16,455, Total Food & Beverage Stores 314,569, ,943, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

23 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Health & Personal Care Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Pharmacies and Drug Stores 101,177, ,338, Expenditures at Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores 3,946,562 9,334, Expenditures at Optical Goods Stores 4,615,090 6,009, Expenditures at Other Health and Personal Care Stores 7,191,567 8,143, Total Health & Personal Care Stores 116,930, ,826, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

24 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Men's Clothing Stores 5,622,682 5,046, Expenditures at Women's Clothing Stores 22,034,720 19,069, Expenditures at Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores 4,618,592 2,809, Expenditures at Family Clothing Stores 46,435,062 48,118, Expenditures at Clothing Accessories Stores 2,045, , Expenditures at Other Clothing Stores 5,555,910 3,183, Expenditures at Shoe Stores 15,670,023 11,327, Expenditures at Jewelry Stores 17,414,653 12,773, Expenditures at Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores 1,393, , Total Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 120,790, ,941, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

25 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Sporting Goods Stores 15,673,236 18,184, Expenditures at Hobby, Toys and Games Stores 9,932,122 14,315, Expenditures at Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores 2,822,767 10,017, Expenditures at Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores 3,470,365 11,418, Expenditures at Book Stores and News Dealers 11,955,705 18,835, Expenditures at Prerecorded Tape, Compact Disc, and Record Stores 5,618,489 1,056, Total Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 49,472,684 73,827, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

26 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of General Merchandise Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Department Stores excluding leased depts. 144,496, ,076, Expenditures at Warehouse Clubs and Super Stores 138,356, Expenditures at All Other General Merchandise Stores 22,498,136 48,968, Total General Merchandise Stores 305,351, ,045, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

27 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Miscellaneous Store Retailers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Florists 4,516,383 3,352, Expenditures at Office Supplies and Stationery Stores 14,644,694 30,031, Expenditures at Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 11,254,452 13,927, Expenditures at Used Merchandise Stores 5,613,859 8,398, Expenditures at Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 27,701,670 16,478, Total Miscellaneous Store Retailers 63,731,058 72,188, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

28 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Foodservice & Drinking Places Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Full-service Restaurants 123,005, ,126, Expenditures at Limited-service Eating Places 108,818, ,054, Expenditures at Special Foodservices 22,238,525 11,699, Expenditures at Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages 12,922,727 10,741, Total Foodservice & Drinking Places 266,985, ,622, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

29 La Mesa Boulevard & Spring St (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sources and Methodology The primary data sources used in the construction of the database include: Current year AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions) Consumer Expenditure Estimates Census of Retail Trade, Merchandise Line Sales Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade The Census of Retail Trade presents a table known as the Merchandise Line summary, which relates approximately 120 merchandise lines (e.g. hardware) to each of the store types. For each merchandise line, the distribution of sales by store type can be computed, yielding a conversion table which apportions merchandise line sales by store type. The AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions) Consumer Expenditure database was re-computed to these merchandise lines by aggregating both whole and partial categories, yielding, at the block group level, a series of merchandise line estimates which are consistent with the AGS Consumer Expenditure database. These two components were then combined in order to derive estimated potential by store type. The results were then compared to current retail trade statistics to ensure consistency and completeness. Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

30 Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis The Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis examines the quantitative aspect of the community's retail opportunities. It is a guide to understanding retail opportunities but it is not an analysis that indicates unconditional opportunities. The analysis is sometimes called "a gap analysis" or "a supply and demand analysis" and can aid in the following: -Indicating how well the retail needs of local residents are being met -Uncovering unmet demand and possible opportunities -Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the local retail sector -Measuring the difference between actual and potential retail sales Understanding Retail Leakage Retail leakage means that residents are spending more for products than local businesses capture. Retail sales leakage suggests that there is unmet demand in the trade area and that the community can support additional store space for that type of business. However, retail leakage does not necessarily translate into opportunity. For example, there could be a strong competitor in a neighboring community that dominates the market for that type of product or store. Understanding Retail Surplus A retail surplus means that the community's trade area is capturing the local market plus attracting non-local shoppers. A retail surplus does not necessarily mean that the community cannot support additional business. Many communities have developed strong clusters of stores that have broad geographic appeal. Examples of these types of retailers include: sporting goods stores, home furnishing stores, restaurants, and other specialty operations that become destination retailers and draw customers from outside the trade area. Examining the quantitative aspects (Leakage/Surplus) is only part of the evaluation of community's retail opportunities. Before any conclusions can be drawn about potential business expansion or recruitment opportunities, qualitative considerations such as trade area psychographics and buying habits must be analyzed in context of other market factors. Interpreting Leakage Index 1.0 = equilibrium, meaning that demand and sales in the area being analyzed are in balance..80 = demand exceeds sales by 20%, meaning that consumers are leaving the area being analyzed. 1.2 = sales exceed demand by 20%, meaning that consumers are coming from outside the area being analyzed.

31 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Leakage/Surplus Index by Major Store Type The quantitative comparison of retail leakage and surplus in the twelve major store types shown in the chart and table below provides an initial measure of market opportunities. Combining this analysis with the knowledge of the local retail situation will take the process of identifying retail possibilities one step further. Figure 1 provides the leakage/surplus indices and following is the sales potential and actual sales for major store types. Figure 1. Leakage/Surplus Index and Actual and Potential Sales by Major Store Types Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers 449,707,755 1,044,410, Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 59,854,073 78,280, Electronics & Appliance Stores 59,145,235 49,296, Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 233,854, ,466, Food & Beverage Stores 302,784, ,901, Health & Personal Care Stores 113,439, ,026, Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 115,041, ,526, Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 46,752,269 77,115, General Merchandise Stores 292,988, ,583, Miscellaneous Store Retailers 61,756,155 75,714, Foodservice & Drinking Places 258,061, ,382, Total 1,993,385,141 3,218,704, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

32 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Automotive Dealers 386,133, ,705, Expenditures at Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 27,893,637 49,283, Expenditures at Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 35,680,217 58,422, Total Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers 449,707,755 1,044,410, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

33 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Furniture Stores 33,252,172 44,400, Expenditures at Home Furnishing Stores 26,601,902 33,880, Total Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 59,854,073 78,280, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

34 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Electronics & Appliance Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Appliance, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 45,096,123 34,521, Expenditures at Computer and Software Stores 11,860,988 11,972, Expenditures at Camera and Photographic Equipment Stores 2,188,124 2,802, Total Electronics & Appliance Stores 59,145,235 49,296, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

35 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Home Centers 86,673, ,900, Expenditures at Paint and Wallpaper Stores 5,067,209 19,101, Expenditures at Hardware Stores 18,750,062 10,501, Expenditures at Other Building Materials Dealers 103,929, ,948, Expenditures at Outdoor Power Equipment Stores 2,870,472 1,294, Expenditures at Nursery and Garden Centers 16,564,378 3,718, Total Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 233,854, ,466, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

36 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Food & Beverage Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 261,430, ,919, Expenditures at Convenience Stores 13,320,912 24,041, Expenditures at Specialty Food Stores 8,772,461 10,130, Expenditures at Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 19,261,041 15,809, Total Food & Beverage Stores 302,784, ,901, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

37 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Health & Personal Care Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Pharmacies and Drug Stores 98,155, ,178, Expenditures at Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores 3,834,093 11,501, Expenditures at Optical Goods Stores 4,477,014 6,534, Expenditures at Other Health and Personal Care Stores 6,972,820 6,811, Total Health & Personal Care Stores 113,439, ,026, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

38 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Men's Clothing Stores 5,342,962 7,635, Expenditures at Women's Clothing Stores 20,763,448 24,663, Expenditures at Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores 4,406,285 3,224, Expenditures at Family Clothing Stores 44,079,623 56,019, Expenditures at Clothing Accessories Stores 1,970, , Expenditures at Other Clothing Stores 5,246,139 6,875, Expenditures at Shoe Stores 14,728,626 14,677, Expenditures at Jewelry Stores 17,145,637 18,826, Expenditures at Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores 1,358,156 82, Total Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 115,041, ,526, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

39 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Sporting Goods Stores 15,001,768 20,039, Expenditures at Hobby, Toys and Games Stores 9,561,033 17,765, Expenditures at Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores 2,719,126 9,047, Expenditures at Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores 3,296,661 10,561, Expenditures at Book Stores and News Dealers 10,861,267 18,370, Expenditures at Prerecorded Tape, Compact Disc, and Record Stores 5,312,414 1,330, Total Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 46,752,269 77,115, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

40 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of General Merchandise Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Department Stores excluding leased depts. 138,469, ,709, Expenditures at Warehouse Clubs and Super Stores 132,808,374 38,300, Expenditures at All Other General Merchandise Stores 21,710,095 44,573, Total General Merchandise Stores 292,988, ,583, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

41 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Miscellaneous Store Retailers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Florists 4,377,843 3,396, Expenditures at Office Supplies and Stationery Stores 14,233,449 24,390, Expenditures at Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 10,948,156 15,048, Expenditures at Used Merchandise Stores 5,389,691 7,058, Expenditures at Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 26,807,016 25,819, Total Miscellaneous Store Retailers 61,756,155 75,714, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

42 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Foodservice & Drinking Places Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Full-service Restaurants 118,959, ,463, Expenditures at Limited-service Eating Places 105,009, ,163, Expenditures at Special Foodservices 21,464,252 10,839, Expenditures at Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages 12,628,056 11,915, Total Foodservice & Drinking Places 258,061, ,382, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

43 Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sources and Methodology The primary data sources used in the construction of the database include: Current year AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions) Consumer Expenditure Estimates Census of Retail Trade, Merchandise Line Sales Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade The Census of Retail Trade presents a table known as the Merchandise Line summary, which relates approximately 120 merchandise lines (e.g. hardware) to each of the store types. For each merchandise line, the distribution of sales by store type can be computed, yielding a conversion table which apportions merchandise line sales by store type. The AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions) Consumer Expenditure database was re-computed to these merchandise lines by aggregating both whole and partial categories, yielding, at the block group level, a series of merchandise line estimates which are consistent with the AGS Consumer Expenditure database. These two components were then combined in order to derive estimated potential by store type. The results were then compared to current retail trade statistics to ensure consistency and completeness. Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

44 Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis The Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis examines the quantitative aspect of the community's retail opportunities. It is a guide to understanding retail opportunities but it is not an analysis that indicates unconditional opportunities. The analysis is sometimes called "a gap analysis" or "a supply and demand analysis" and can aid in the following: -Indicating how well the retail needs of local residents are being met -Uncovering unmet demand and possible opportunities -Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the local retail sector -Measuring the difference between actual and potential retail sales Understanding Retail Leakage Retail leakage means that residents are spending more for products than local businesses capture. Retail sales leakage suggests that there is unmet demand in the trade area and that the community can support additional store space for that type of business. However, retail leakage does not necessarily translate into opportunity. For example, there could be a strong competitor in a neighboring community that dominates the market for that type of product or store. Understanding Retail Surplus A retail surplus means that the community's trade area is capturing the local market plus attracting non-local shoppers. A retail surplus does not necessarily mean that the community cannot support additional business. Many communities have developed strong clusters of stores that have broad geographic appeal. Examples of these types of retailers include: sporting goods stores, home furnishing stores, restaurants, and other specialty operations that become destination retailers and draw customers from outside the trade area. Examining the quantitative aspects (Leakage/Surplus) is only part of the evaluation of community's retail opportunities. Before any conclusions can be drawn about potential business expansion or recruitment opportunities, qualitative considerations such as trade area psychographics and buying habits must be analyzed in context of other market factors. Interpreting Leakage Index 1.0 = equilibrium, meaning that demand and sales in the area being analyzed are in balance..80 = demand exceeds sales by 20%, meaning that consumers are leaving the area being analyzed. 1.2 = sales exceed demand by 20%, meaning that consumers are coming from outside the area being analyzed.

45 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Leakage/Surplus Index by Major Store Type The quantitative comparison of retail leakage and surplus in the twelve major store types shown in the chart and table below provides an initial measure of market opportunities. Combining this analysis with the knowledge of the local retail situation will take the process of identifying retail possibilities one step further. Figure 1 provides the leakage/surplus indices and following is the sales potential and actual sales for major store types. Figure 1. Leakage/Surplus Index and Actual and Potential Sales by Major Store Types Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers 452,363,213 1,236,307, Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 61,306, ,966, Electronics & Appliance Stores 60,821,542 59,393, Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 243,600, ,121, Food & Beverage Stores 299,342, ,710, Health & Personal Care Stores 115,331, ,925, Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 117,054, ,789, Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 49,555,748 78,254, General Merchandise Stores 295,669, ,866, Miscellaneous Store Retailers 63,365,086 67,685, Foodservice & Drinking Places 261,797, ,382, Total 2,020,208,615 3,495,403, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

46 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Automotive Dealers 387,649,913 1,156,061, Expenditures at Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 28,379,985 30,209, Expenditures at Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 36,333,316 50,035, Total Motor Vehicle Parts & Dealers 452,363,213 1,236,307, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

47 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Furniture Stores 33,718,898 59,572, Expenditures at Home Furnishing Stores 27,587,490 41,393, Total Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 61,306, ,966, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

48 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Electronics & Appliance Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Appliance, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 46,118,407 41,186, Expenditures at Computer and Software Stores 12,463,233 15,680, Expenditures at Camera and Photographic Equipment Stores 2,239,901 2,526, Total Electronics & Appliance Stores 60,821,542 59,393, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

49 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Home Centers 90,293, ,072, Expenditures at Paint and Wallpaper Stores 5,326,273 12,671, Expenditures at Hardware Stores 19,370,826 8,839, Expenditures at Other Building Materials Dealers 108,552, ,537, Expenditures at Outdoor Power Equipment Stores 2,993,502 1,689, Expenditures at Nursery and Garden Centers 17,064,086 5,311, Total Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 243,600, ,121, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

50 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Food & Beverage Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 257,839, ,932, Expenditures at Convenience Stores 13,202,454 22,815, Expenditures at Specialty Food Stores 8,601,121 11,456, Expenditures at Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 19,699,362 17,506, Total Food & Beverage Stores 299,342, ,710, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

51 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Health & Personal Care Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Pharmacies and Drug Stores 99,819, ,917, Expenditures at Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores 3,910,386 10,410, Expenditures at Optical Goods Stores 4,521,332 6,707, Expenditures at Other Health and Personal Care Stores 7,079,876 7,890, Total Health & Personal Care Stores 115,331, ,925, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

52 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Men's Clothing Stores 5,452,701 5,957, Expenditures at Women's Clothing Stores 21,422,144 23,954, Expenditures at Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores 4,104,723 2,209, Expenditures at Family Clothing Stores 44,836,340 53,079, Expenditures at Clothing Accessories Stores 2,031, , Expenditures at Other Clothing Stores 5,385,020 5,342, Expenditures at Shoe Stores 14,720,206 12,792, Expenditures at Jewelry Stores 17,702,595 16,674, Expenditures at Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores 1,399, , Total Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 117,054, ,789, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

53 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Sporting Goods Stores 15,391,429 18,579, Expenditures at Hobby, Toys and Games Stores 9,629,162 17,123, Expenditures at Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores 2,784,528 8,752, Expenditures at Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores 3,392,334 16,031, Expenditures at Book Stores and News Dealers 12,848,638 16,288, Expenditures at Prerecorded Tape, Compact Disc, and Record Stores 5,509,657 1,478, Total Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 49,555,748 78,254, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

54 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of General Merchandise Stores Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Department Stores excluding leased depts. 140,552, ,440, Expenditures at Warehouse Clubs and Super Stores 133,018, Expenditures at All Other General Merchandise Stores 22,098,627 48,425, Total General Merchandise Stores 295,669, ,866, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

55 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Miscellaneous Store Retailers Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Florists 4,524,278 3,234, Expenditures at Office Supplies and Stationery Stores 14,721,227 23,808, Expenditures at Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 11,285,252 15,161, Expenditures at Used Merchandise Stores 5,581,319 5,515, Expenditures at Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 27,253,009 19,965, Total Miscellaneous Store Retailers 63,365,086 67,685, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

56 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sub-Categories of Foodservice & Drinking Places Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage Expenditures at Full-service Restaurants 120,799, ,053, Expenditures at Limited-service Eating Places 106,223, ,090, Expenditures at Special Foodservices 21,726,401 19,597, Expenditures at Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages 13,048,061 10,640, Total Foodservice & Drinking Places 261,797, ,382, Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

57 Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive (9 minute drive time) Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis Sources and Methodology The primary data sources used in the construction of the database include: Current year AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions) Consumer Expenditure Estimates Census of Retail Trade, Merchandise Line Sales Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade The Census of Retail Trade presents a table known as the Merchandise Line summary, which relates approximately 120 merchandise lines (e.g. hardware) to each of the store types. For each merchandise line, the distribution of sales by store type can be computed, yielding a conversion table which apportions merchandise line sales by store type. The AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions) Consumer Expenditure database was re-computed to these merchandise lines by aggregating both whole and partial categories, yielding, at the block group level, a series of merchandise line estimates which are consistent with the AGS Consumer Expenditure database. These two components were then combined in order to derive estimated potential by store type. The results were then compared to current retail trade statistics to ensure consistency and completeness. Buxton 2651 South Polaris Drive Fort Worth, TX /30/2011 Data Sources: Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc., Copyright 2009 Tel: Fax: of 14

58 Appendix B: Demographic Report

59 Demographics Analysis Geography: La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Population Profile 2013 Projection 2008 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 5% Population Change 9 Min Drive Time 255, , , ,492 0% Growth % Growth % Growth 5 Year Proj % Work Place Population 9 Min Drive Time Total 112,241 Household Profile 2013 Projection 2008 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 99,462 99, ,019 98,231 Household Change 0% Growth % Growth % Growth 5 Year Proj % Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 1

60 Analysis Geography: La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Population By Race (Current) White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Total Population By Race 9 Min Drive Time 196,984 15,978 1,628 15,250 1,550 15,501 9, ,568 Population By Race (Current) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Population By Hispanic Origin (Current) 9 Min Drive Time Hispanic Origin 61,336 Non Hispanic Origin 195,232 Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 2

61 Analysis Geography: La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Population By Age (Current) 9 Min Drive Time 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 13 years 14 to 17 years 18 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85+ Years Total Population By Age Median Age ,900 15,927 12,301 12,834 8,560 22,047 36,554 35,345 17,709 16,547 14,347 11,362 16,459 13,492 6, ,568 15% Population By Age (Current) 10% 5% 0% 0-4 Years 5-9 Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 85+ Years Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 3

62 Analysis Geography: La Mesa Boulevard & Spring Street La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Households By Income (Current) 9 Min Drive Time Under $15,000 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $249,999 $250,000 to $499,999 $500,000 + Total Households By Income 99,616 Average Household Income $70,819 Median Household Income $56,218 10,274 10,062 10,759 16,358 20,229 13,198 11,964 4,489 1,098 1, % 20.49% 18.92% 17.34% 15.76% 14.19% 12.61% 11.03% 9.46% 7.88% 6.31% 4.73% 3.15% 1.58% 0% Under $15K 15K - 25K 25K - 35K Households By Income (Current) 35K - 50K 50K - 75K 75K - 100K 100K - 150K 150K - 250K 250K - 500K 500K + Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 4

63 Demographics Analysis Geography: Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Population Profile 2013 Projection 2008 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 5% Population Change 9 Min Drive Time 257, , , ,627 0% Growth % Growth % Growth 5 Year Proj % Work Place Population 9 Min Drive Time Total 103,158 Household Profile 2013 Projection 2008 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 99,304 99, ,138 98,253 Household Change 0% Growth % Growth % Growth 5 Year Proj % Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 1

64 Analysis Geography: Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Population By Race (Current) White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Total Population By Race 9 Min Drive Time 203,058 13,922 1,706 13,242 1,395 15,185 9, ,425 Population By Race (Current) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Population By Hispanic Origin (Current) 9 Min Drive Time Hispanic Origin 61,036 Non Hispanic Origin 197,389 Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 2

65 Analysis Geography: Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Population By Age (Current) 9 Min Drive Time 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 13 years 14 to 17 years 18 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85+ Years Total Population By Age Median Age ,537 16,430 12,735 13,211 8,671 21,954 36,346 35,474 17,585 16,602 14,560 11,456 16,438 13,236 6, ,425 15% Population By Age (Current) 10% 5% 0% 0-4 Years 5-9 Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 85+ Years Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 3

66 Analysis Geography: Grossmont Center Drive & Center Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Households By Income (Current) 9 Min Drive Time Under $15,000 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $249,999 $250,000 to $499,999 $500,000 + Total Households By Income 99,397 Average Household Income $69,100 Median Household Income $55,226 10,949 10,499 10,817 16,278 19,816 12,774 11,600 4,542 1,064 1, % 20.12% 18.57% 17.02% 15.47% 13.93% 12.38% 10.83% 9.28% 7.74% 6.19% 4.64% 3.09% 1.55% 0% Under $15K 15K - 25K 25K - 35K Households By Income (Current) 35K - 50K 50K - 75K 75K - 100K 100K - 150K 150K - 250K 250K - 500K 500K + Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 4

67 Demographics Analysis Geography: Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Population Profile 2013 Projection 2008 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 5% Population Change 9 Min Drive Time 280, , , ,673 0% Growth % Growth % Growth 5 Year Proj % Work Place Population 9 Min Drive Time Total 118,911 Household Profile 2013 Projection 2008 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 111, , , ,500 Household Change 0% Growth % Growth % Growth 5 Year Proj % Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 1

68 Analysis Geography: Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Population By Race (Current) White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Total Population By Race 9 Min Drive Time 216,218 16,571 1,797 17,657 1,489 17,726 10, ,315 Population By Race (Current) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Population By Hispanic Origin (Current) 9 Min Drive Time Hispanic Origin 68,821 Non Hispanic Origin 213,494 Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 2

69 Analysis Geography: Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Population By Age (Current) 9 Min Drive Time 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 13 years 14 to 17 years 18 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85+ Years Total Population By Age Median Age ,053 17,410 13,150 13,520 9,096 24,792 42,050 39,147 19,167 17,872 15,584 12,304 17,711 14,485 7, ,315 15% Population By Age (Current) 10% 5% 0% 0-4 Years 5-9 Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 85+ Years Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 3

70 Analysis Geography: Fletcher Parkway & Baltimore Drive La Mesa, CA Date: 3/30/2011 Demographics Households By Income (Current) 9 Min Drive Time Under $15,000 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $249,999 $250,000 to $499,999 $500,000 + Total Households By Income 112,021 Average Household Income $68,451 Median Household Income $54,383 12,540 12,240 12,606 18,478 21,956 14,152 12,670 4,930 1,242 1, % 19.78% 18.26% 16.74% 15.21% 13.69% 12.17% 10.65% 9.13% 7.61% 6.09% 4.56% 3.04% 1.52% 0% Under $15K 15K - 25K 25K - 35K Households By Income (Current) 35K - 50K 50K - 75K 75K - 100K 100K - 150K 150K - 250K 250K - 500K 500K + Census Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions, 2000; Census Estimates and Projections 2008 Data. Data Source: Applied Geographic Solutions Page: 4

71 Appendix C: Segmentation Guide