HOUSING NEED AND DEMAND STUDY

Transcription

1 HOUSING NEED AND DEMAND STUDY (Dcument Template) March 2010

2 Intrductin: BC Husing cnsiders the needs f all municipalities in the Prvince during deliberatins n the lcatin f new affrdable husing prjects. The bjective f such brad-based decisin-making is t ensure that affrdable husing prjects are distributed fairly and equitably acrss need grups and gegraphic regins f the Prvince. An imprtant part f the deliberatins is identifying the level f need and demand fr affrdable husing in each target cmmunity. Usually, the task f identifying this need and demand falls n the prject spnsr, which in the past has resulted in markedly different studies. In rder t ensure that the need identificatin prcess is cnsistent, and the resulting prject evaluatins and decisins are fair t all need grups and acrss all regins f the Prvince, the Csting and Targeting Task Grup has develped this dcument t assist prject spnsrs in develping need and demand studies. This dcument includes an example f a simple yet systematic framewrk that may be fllwed. Prject spnsrs are encuraged t mdify the framewrk t suit the prject and the cmmunity, but shuld endeavur t address all its key elements. Overview: What is a Need and Demand Study? A Husing Need and Demand study is an analysis f the extent f the need fr affrdable husing in a cmmunity. The typical husing need and demand study has three key cmpnents: (a) Current Need Analysis; (b) Newly Arising Need (Demand) Analysis; and (c) Supply Analysis. The current need analysis seeks t identify husehlds in the cmmunity that currently lack their wn husing r live in inadequate husing fr a variety f reasns, and cannt affrd the husing they need in the lcal husing market withut sme assistance. In simple terms, the current need analysis seeks t answer the questin f wh in the cmmunity needs affrdable husing immediately. The newly arising need (demand) analysis is a frward-lking view f the need questin. Specifically, it relies n the prjected r ptential shrt t medium term husehld cmpsitin f the cmmunity t estimate the future need fr affrdable husing in the cmmunity. Tgether, the current and newly arising need analyses allw the prpnent t put frward a prject that is better able t accmmdate the present and future affrdable husing needs f the cmmunity. The supply analysis, n the ther hand, determines the ability f the cmmunity t meet its current and future affrdable husing needs in the absence f the prpsed prject by examining the existing husing stck and anticipated additins. By stacking the need analyses against the supply situatin, bth the prject spnsr and BC Husing are able t gain a better insight int the level f shrtage r glut f affrdable husing in the cmmunity, as well as the scale and frm that the prject shuld take all f which are critical 1

3 factrs that must be understd befre an affrdable husing prject can be awarded t a cmmunity. What Are the Requirements f a Need and Demand Study? There are numerus appraches t preparing a need and demand study. It is als pssible t develp an adequate need and demand analysis based n either quantitative r qualitative infrmatin. Hwever, a mre useful analysis is ne that uses strng qualitative infrmatin supprted by quantitative data (see explanatins belw). Cllectin and Use f Qualitative Data fr a Need and Demand Study Thrughut yur Need and Demand study, it is imprtant t make use f the best available infrmatin in rder t respnd t each f the questins. Fr the mst part, yur Need and Demand study will fcus n the use f quantitative (statistical, ecnmic r demgraphic) data, but yu may find that qualitative data is useful and necessary, especially if yur target ppulatin is small r is a very specific grup. Qualitative data can be virtually any type f infrmatin that cannt be described as a numeric value. Qualitative data is ften used t reflect the stries f lived experience. Examples f qualitative data surces: Newspapers, magazines, lcal televisin r radi reprts Interviews with experts, e.g., cmmunity leaders, service prviders, gvernment fficials, peple wh have experienced hmelessness Fcus grups made up f cmmunity members and service prviders with knwledge abut the need and service gaps in their cmmunities Husing industry annual reprts and/r ther dcuments Gvernment publicatins, e.g., legislative dcuments, strategies, cnference statements Reprts frm cmmunity rganizatins Prceedings f cnferences r wrkshps In rder t make the best use f qualitative data, please remember t: Use the mst up t date and authritative infrmatin surce as pssible. Present facts ver pinins. Keep a neutral vice and avid pinin cmments. Dcument ALL data surces (qualitative and quantitative). Avid prmting a particular rganizatin abve thers. Seek ut multiple data surces. Always be clear abut the time perid cvered. Let the facts speak fr themselves and avid subjective wrds such as very, extremely, adequately. 2

4 Identifying Cmmunity Amenities Yu may als want t identify amenities that are near yur prpsed lcatin, r yu may want t understand the amenities that are available befre yu chse a lcatin fr yur prject. Amenities t cnsider depend n yur target client grup, and can include the fllwing: Hspital r medical facilities Service agencies such as meal prgrams r mental health supprts Lw cst public facilities such as libraries and cmmunity recreatinal centres Transit stps Schls and day cares Cmmercial centres 3

5 FRAMEWORK FOR PREPARING A NEED AND DEMAND STUDY Cmpnent Study Outline Surces f Infrmatin Intrductin This sectin typically prvides the cntext fr the study and sets the stage fr the detailed analysis t fllw. Generally, it includes statements n the purpse f the study, its scpe, and its limitatins. Definitins f unusual terms emplyed in the study may als be prvided. Cmmunity Demgraphic and Ecnmic Prfile The demgraphic prfile f a cmmunity largely determines husing demand and the types f husing that are required. Therefre, it is imprtant fr any need and demand study t begin with an analysis f the cmmunity s demgraphic prfile. The prfile shuld attempt t address several questins abut the cmmunity s ppulatin, such as: Is the cmmunity experiencing grwth r expected t grw? Are certain segments f the ppulatin (e.g. senirs) grwing faster than thers? What are the grwth pressures which supprt the cnstructin f an affrdable husing? A majr element f the demgraphic analysis is an analysis f the general husing cnditins in the cmmunity. The analysis shuld examine such issues as: Husehld characteristics; Tenure arrangements; Husing market cnditins, especially rental market cnditins; and Cnditin f the stck. The lcal ecnmy als has a significant impact n husing need and demand. Fr example, incme and emplyment levels create demand fr different types f husing. Fr this reasn, the lcal ecnmy must 1. Intrductin (a) Purpse f study (b) Scpe f study (c) Key study assumptins (d) Definitin f terms 2. Cmmunity Demgraphic and Ecnmic Prfile a.)ppulatin (size, grwth rate, and prjectin) b.)age c.)incme d.)labur frce and emplyment e.)husing i. Husehld size and cmpsitin ii. Husing types iii. Cnditin f stck (age, repairs) iv. Tenure types (rental, wned, shared equity, c-perative) v. Husing market cnditins a. Ownership market b. Rental market c. Vacancies d. Prperty valuatins e. Husing starts Infrmatin fr this sectin shuld cme frm the prject spnsr r agent. Infrmatin fr this sectin can be btained frm: BC Stats Statistics Canada CMHC Lcal gvernments Schl Bards 4

6 be examined t understand its current state and trends r directin. Addressing the fllwing questins may help gain a gd perspective f the lcal r reginal ecnmy: What are the key labur frce and emplyment trends? What are the future emplyment trends? Current Affrdable Husing Need This sectin reviews the extent t which existing husehlds in the cmmunity are in need f affrdable husing. It is the cre f a need and demand analysis. Issues that need t be examined here include the number and prprtin f: Hmeless husehlds and thse that are at the risk f hmelessness; Husehlds paying 30% r mre f their incme n husing; Husehlds paying 50% r mre f their incme n husing; Husehlds that are ver-hused; Husehlds living in vercrwding cnditins; Husehlds living n sub-standard husing (lack f bathrms, kitchen, r need majr repairs); Husehlds facing threats and harassments, under ntice, real threat f ntice r lease cming t an end; and Husehlds n waiting lists. 3. Current Affrdable Husing Need (a) Current ccupiers f affrdable husing (rental) in need (b) Husehlds frm ther tenures in need (c) Husehlds with inadequate husing (d) Husehlds with scial needs (e) Aggregate current husing need Infrmatin fr this sectin is available frm: Statistics Canada CMHC Scial planning agencies Lcal gvernments Lcal husing agencies Current Affrdable Husing Supply This sectin f the analysis lks at the supply f affrdable husing in the cmmunity. The analysis shuld include estimates f the number f ccupied scial husing units, vacant units, units under cnstructin, and units t be demlished r therwise taken ut f management. General affrdable husing supply issues (pprtunities and challenges) as well as the viewpints f husing stakehlders and advcates in the cmmunity may als be examined and presented. 4. Available Husing Stck (a) Current ccupiers f affrdable husing in need (b) Vacant units within scial husing sectr (c) Cmmitted supply f new affrdable husing (d) Units t be taken ut f management (e) Aggregate stck t meet current husing need (f) Current Unmet Husing Need Infrmatin fr this sectin can be btained frm: Lcal husing agencies Scial husing prviders Lcal gvernments BC Nn-Prfit Husing Assciatin (BCNPHA) 5

7 Emerging Husing Need This sectin reviews the ptential r future need fr affrdable husing in the cmmunity. Typically, a review f anticipated husehld changes in the cmmunity is sufficient t achieve this. Anticipated Affrdable Husing Supply This sectin prvides an analysis f the cmmunity s affrdable husing supply and its ability t meet prjected needs. 5. Emerging Husing Need (a) New husehlds frmatin (b) New husehld frmatins with incmes that preclude pen market entry (c) Existing husehlds falling int need (d) Older husehlds in wner ccupied hmes seeking scial husing (e) Backlg f husing need amng existing husehlds (f) In-migratin (g) Aggregate emerging husing need 6. Anticipated Affrdable Husing Supply (a) Annual scial husing turnver (less new units and transfers) (b) Annual supply f affrdable scial husing (c) Annual supply f private husing at sub-market rent (d) Aggregate supply f affrdable units Infrmatin fr this sectin can be btained frm: Statistics Canada BC Stats CMHC BC Husing Lcal husing agencies Husehld surveys Infrmatin fr this sectin can be btained frm: BC Husing Lcal gvernments Real Estate Bards Gap Analysis This sectin cmpares infrmatin frm the affrdable husing need/demand and supply analyses t identify the differences r gaps between need and supply. This analysis shuld prduce evidence f the existence f ne r mre f the fllwing fur husing utlks fr the cmmunity: 1. The current need fr affrdable husing exceeds current supply; 2. The current need fr affrdable husing falls shrt f current supply; 3. The future supply f affrdable husing will exceed the cmmunity s need; r 4. The future supply f affrdable husing will fall shrt f the cmmunity s need. The prpsed prject shuld be able t demnstrate hw it wuld allw the cmmunity t address, in whle r in part, ne r mre f these utlks. 7. Net Shrtfall/Surplus f Affrdable Husing 6