GUIDE TO TREND MAPPING

Transcription

1 GUIDE TO TREND MAPPING Example Trend Map 1 TREND MAPPING OVERVIEW What is a trend map? A trend map is a visual depictin f relevant trends influencing the system arund a given tpic. It is develped using the cllective knwledge and experience f a grup f peple familiar with a given 1 This trend map was develped during an internal meeting at the Kresge Fundatin in Fr mre infrmatin n this sessin, please refer t this blg pst. 1

2 system and its cntext. Hw can trend mapping supprt systems thinking and practice? Cntext Understand an issue s landscape/cntext and histry. Identify hw varius cntextual factrs (e.g., scial, plitical, cultural, and ecnmic develpments and events) influence a tpic r gal. Cnnectins Explre relatinships, mmentum, and energy amng the trends n the map. Patterns Identify key trends (e.g., increases, decreases, appearances, disappearances, evlutins, and adaptatins) that may influence the tpic r gal. Understand hw plicies r scial and cultural nrms are changing. Understand the relatinships between utputs and utcmes and external factrs. TREND MAPPING, PART ONE: FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT 1. Is trend mapping right fr yur prject? Cnsideratins Use Trend Mapping Dn t Use Trend Mapping System bundaries Credible infrmants Yu have a clear understanding f the system and its bundaries in rder t identify relevant trends and their implicatins. Participants are familiar with a given system and have knwledge and experience f relevant trends. x x The bundaries f the system and its cmpnents and subcmpnents are unclear. Participants cannt credibly speak t trends in the system and their implicatins. 2. What d I need t prperly facilitate a trend mapping sessin? A trend mapping sessin typically takes minutes t facilitate. Preparatin requirements are utlined belw. Participant prep time Facilitatr prep time Facilitatr prep wrk Descriptin Minimal 3 7 hurs Frame the activity Identify the issue and bundaries fr the mapping activity. (Nte: This can be dne with r withut input frm participants.) Backgrund research (ptinal) Cnduct interviews and/r dcument review t begin identifying ptential trends. 2

3 Required materials Facilitatin agenda and talking pints Large sheet f paper (apprximately 36 x 28 ), landscape rientatin, n the wall Tape, markers (multiple clrs) Sticky ntes (at least tw clrs) Sticky dts Flip chart and paper 3

4 TREND MAPPING, PART TWO: PREPARATION 1. Chse a tpic The tpic can vary, but will likely be a current r ptential fcus f the rganizatin s wrk. This culd take the frm f an utcme, setting, service, experience f a grup f cre stakehlders, r ther tpic. 2. Cnduct research Cnsider preparing fr the sessin by cllecting an initial set f trends thrugh secndary research r external interviews with peple knwledgeable abut the tpic with varius vantage pints int the system. 3. Prepare the meeting space Trend mapping is intended t be a grup discussin abut a cllabratively created diagram. Arrange the rm s participants are gathered arund the large sheet f paper. Write the tpic fr discussin inside a circle in the center f a large (apprximately 36 x 28 ) sheet f paper, landscape rientatin. Have markers available in multiple clrs; have pst-its available in red and green; have sticky dts available; have a flipchart available. Optinal: Ask participants t prepare fr the sessin by reflecting n trends that are supprting r impeding prgress related t the tpic frm their experience. TREND MAPPING, PART THREE: FACILITATION AND SUGGESTED TIMING The sectin belw is designed t supprt yu in preparing fr and facilitating a 90-minute trend mapping sessin. 2 This activity can be cnducted with any size grup. Ideally, participants will represent a diversity f teams as well as levels f senirity and tenure acrss the rganizatin r initiative. The grup may als include external participants such as beneficiaries r grantees. Facilitatin Steps 1. Intrductin (15 minutes) Begin by sharing a brief intrductin t trend mapping and the purpse f the activity. 2. Brainstrming (3 5 minutes) Prmpt participants t write dwn a list f trends 3 that they believe influence the tpic. (These culd be supprting trends r impeding trends.) Encurage participants t list trends. 2 This sectin f the trend mapping tl was infrmed by the instructins included in the fllwing resurce: 3 It may be helpful t define a trend as smething that is increasing r decreasing, r appearing r disappearing. 4

5 3. Building the Map (35 minutes) Mdeling: Invite a participant t share ne f the trends n his r her list and t identify whether the trend is supprting r impeding prgress tward the rganizatin s gal. Write the trend n a pst-it (green fr supprting trend, red fr impeding trend) and place it near the tpic at the center f the map. Invite smene else t share anther trend influencing the tpic and whether it is supprting r impeding prgress. Befre placing the pst-it n the map, ask the participant if the trend he r she has just named is related t the first trend. If s, place the new pst-it near the first ne; if nt, place the pst-it n its wn in anther spt near the tpic. Repeat this prcess 8 10 times until yu have started t frm small clusters f trends. Engaging: At this pint, yu can invite participants t cme up t the map, ne at a time, t place their wn pst-its while explaining t the grup what they are ding. Cntinue this prcess fr the remainder f the time allcated t this part f the exercise, r until all f the trends are mapped. At the end f this part f the sessin, yu shuld see multiple clusters f trends laid ut arund the tpic at the center f the page. 4. Identifying Energy in the System t Priritize Trends (15 minutes) Give each participant five sticky dts. Prmpt participants t place their dts n the map t identify individual trends that they believe the rganizatin r initiative shuld be paying the mst attentin t. This culd be trends with the strngest energy supprting systems change r trends with the greatest ptential t impede systems change. (Nte: Participants can spread their dts ut amng five different trends, r place all their dts n ne trend.) After all f the dts have been placed, ask participants t draw a line arund the different clusters f trends and give each cluster a descriptive name. (Yu culd als ask participants t draw lines t highlight any special cnnectins r relatinships that they see between trends at this time.) 5. Grup Discussin (45 minutes) Ask participants t reflect individually fr ne minute n what they are seeing n the trend map (e.g., what themes were named, what cnnectins the grup saw, hw the dts are arranged n the map, and what this may indicate abut rganizatinal pririties). Facilitate a discussin abut the themes that emerged frm the mapping exercise. Nte any new insights r implicatins fr the grup s wrk n the tpic, including ptential actins that can be taken t facilitate systems change in light f these themes. Ptential discussin questins culd include: What is mst exciting r inspiring abut this map? What cncerns yu abut this map? What appears t be a central issue r key prblem fr us? 5

6 What trends r clusters have we influenced r tried t influence in the past? What happened? What have we learned? What are sme examples f hw these trends have played ut? Given what we see here, what ptins are pen t us? What applicatins r ideas fr actin has this sessin triggered fr yu? 6

7 NEXT STEPS At the cnclusin f the trend mapping sessin, cnsider prviding participants with a clear verview f next steps. Fr example, yu may wish t share: Infrmatin abut whether r when participants will have anther pprtunity t wrk n the map (typically, additinal iteratins will nt be required, but they might be desirable in sme situatins). Infrmatin abut wh else may have an pprtunity t view r edit the map. Plans regarding the final frmat f the map (e.g., if it will be cnverted t a PwerPint slide and distributed). Plans regarding hw the maps will be used within the rganizatin. Infrmatin abut whether the maps will be made publicly available, and if s, t what end and with what audiences. Cnsider revisiting and updating the trend map every six mnths, r arund the time f key decisins r learning junctures. Additinally, depending n participants depth f knwledge and immersin in the areas highlighted n the map, yu culd cnsider incrprating findings frm sme external interviews r light-tuch secndary research int these fllw-up mapping sessins. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES Trend map examples frm Trends in the Living Netwrks blg. Offers ideas and examples. This wrk is licensed under a Creative Cmmns Attributin-NDerivs 4.0 Unprted License. 7