Boulder County MARKET UPDATE

Transcription

1 Boulder County MARKET UPDATE Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes Trends in Pricing Current Levels of Supply and Demand Value Metrics Report for the week of December 2, 2009 Presented by Christian G. Bosse TRG National Title - anthony_aknight@yahoo.com Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright Altos Research LLC

2 City Overview This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in LONGMONT, CO this week is $349,450. The 34 properties have been on the market for an average of 238 days. Inventory has been decreasing lately but the Market Action Index is falling also. With days-on-market climbing, these are relatively negative implications for the market. Supply and Demand The Market Action Index has been trending lower for several weeks while prices have remained relatively stable. If inventory continues to grow relative to demand however, it is likely that we will see downward pressure on pricing. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Buyer's $ 349,450 $ % 6 % % acre The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" By measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 70, $ 9,850,000 $ 24,900 == == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 30 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $,90, acres Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 524, acre Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 286, ,50-8,000 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 79, ,50-8,000 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 2 of 6

3 City Overview Median Price The market has been on a downward trend recently and this week, while essentially flat, doesn't break us out of that cycle. Quartile Prices Pricing trends have been lacking strong directional indication lately. Quartiles 4 and have been in price decline in recent weeks, with Quartiles 2 and 3 remaining basically flat. Look to the Market Action Index as a leading indicator of the bottom of the market. Page 3 of 6

4 City Overview Price per Square Foot The market's downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes (you can see the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index as a precursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply. Page 4 of 6

5 City Overview Market Action Index The LONGMONT market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall market shifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a blance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. Page 5 of 6

6 City Overview Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 238 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 40 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 6 of 6

7 8050 This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in LONGMONT, CO 8050 this week is $239,900. The 59 properties have been on the market for an average of 75 days. Inventory has been decreasing lately but the Market Action Index is falling also. With days-on-market climbing, these are relatively negative implications for the market. Supply and Demand The Market Action Index has been trending lower for several weeks while prices have remained relatively stable. If inventory continues to grow relative to demand however, it is likely that we will see downward pressure on pricing. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Buyer's $ 239,900 $ % 7 % 0 % 97 6,50-8,000 sqft 8.8 The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" By measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 277,462 == == == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 59 $,040,200 $ 24,900 4 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 407, ,00-0,000 sqft Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 269, ,50-8,000 sqft Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 209, ,50-8,000 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 62, ,50-8,000 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 7 of 6

8 Median Price 8050 Prices in this zip code have been on a downward trend recently and this week, while essentially flat, doesn't break us out of that cycle. Quartile Prices In the quartile market segments, we see the upper-half of the market (Quartiles and 2) in this zip code relatively flat recently while the lower-half prices have remained strong. Quartiles 3 and 4 have been increasing in the last few weeks. Look to the Market Action Index Quartile breakdown for a leading indicator on which group will lead the market in the near future. Page 8 of 6

9 Price per Square Foot 8050 We're seeing fairly unusual market conditions as prices have been in a downward trend but price per square foot is actually increasing. (Buyers are paying less and getting less home for their money.) Anomalies like these can be attributed to microlocation variables. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply. Page 9 of 6

10 8050 Market Action Index The LONGMONT, 8050 market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a blance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. Page 0 of 6

11 Days on Market 8050 The properties have been on the market for an average of 75 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 05 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page of 6

12 80503 This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in LONGMONT, CO this week is $645,000. The 75 properties have been on the market for an average of 287 days. Inventory has been tightening and days-on-market increasing recently. The Market Action Index has been basically flat, not providing strong indication for market conditions. Supply and Demand The market has been consistently cool for several weeks. Demand level are low relative to the available inventory. It's a Buyer's market and prices continue to fall. Look for a persistent shift in Market Action before prices plateau or begin to rise again. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Buyer's $ 645,000 $ % 5 % % acre The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" By measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $,035,946 ±+ ±+ == ±+ == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 75 $ 9,850,000 $ 39,000 2 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $,747, acres Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 790, acre Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 524, acre Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 259, ,50-8,000 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 2 of 6

13 Median Price We continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels. Quartile Prices In the quartile market segments, we see the market's price weakness evident across the board. All four quartiles have been in price decline in recent weeks. Look to the Market Action Index as a leading indicator of the bottom of the market. Page 3 of 6

14 Price per Square Foot The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply. Page 4 of 6

15 80503 Market Action Index The LONGMONT, market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a blance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. Page 5 of 6

16 Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 287 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 89 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 6 of 6