Analysis of All Industrial Activities

Transcription

1 The First Quarter of 26 Analysis of All Industrial Activities Summary Contents 1. Industrial activities on a moderate upward trend (1) Outline of all industrial activities (2) Outline of industrial activities 1Production trend for the quarter 2Production trend by item 3Inventory trend 4 Characteristics of mining and manufacturing industry in the current business recovery stage (3) Outline of tertiary industry activities 1Trend for the quarter 2Situation and trend of employment in the tertiary industry 2. Supply trend and final demand (1) Summary of supply trend for final demand 1Supply trend for the quarter 2Trend of IT-related consumption and investment 3Current status of consumption seen from propensity to consume 4Trend of capital investment and forecast for the moment - Sound capital investment under increasing cash flow (2) Outline of export and import trends 1Export and import trends for the quarter 2Japan s oil import and trade with the Middle East 3. Trends by kind of industry (1) Trend in the manufacturing industry (2) Trends in tertiary industries June 7, 26 Research and Statistics Department, Economic and Industrial Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

2 1. Industrial activities on a moderate upward trend (1) Outline of all industrial activities Looking at overall industry in terms of the indices of all industrial activities in the first quarter of 26, it increased by.6% compared to the previous quarter, up for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to increases in all activities. The index level was the highest with year 2 as the base. The indices of all industrial activities have been on a moderate upward trend. Changes in the Indices of All Industrial Activities Indices for All Industries (Index level 2=1) Ⅰ Indices of All Industrial Activities %Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) %Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year Indices of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries Production 93.6 %Change from the Previous Quarter (Year).8 %Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year Indices of Construction Industry Activities %Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) %Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year Indices of Industrial Production %Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) %Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities %Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) %Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year Indices of Public Administration, etc. Activities %Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) %Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year Index level (2=1, Seasonally adjusted) 11 (%) 12 2Ratio to the previous quarter, Contribution ratio to growth The Indices of All Industrial Activities Indices of Industrial Production Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities Indices of Public Administration, etc. Activities Indices of Construction Industry Activities (Right scale) 25 Ⅰ Ⅱ 25 Ⅲ Ⅰ 26 Indices of Public Administration, etc. Activities Indices of Construction Industry Activities Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities Indices of Industrial Production The Indices of All Industrial Activities Notes: 1. The weight is based on the contribution ratio by sector of gross value added in the input-output table of YR2 (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). Since Indices of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries Production contain no data corresponding to the Indices of All Industrial Activities for 25 and the indices for quarters, the weight was calculated without their weight. 2. The annual values and %change from the same quarter of the previous year are original indices, and others are based on indices seasonally adjusted. 3. The indices of all industrial activities are obtained through annual correction for 25 and re-calculation of seasonal index

3 (2) Outline of industrial activities Production on a moderate upward trend 1 Production trend for the quarter Industrial production for the first quarter of 26 increased by.6% compared to the previous quarter, up for the second consecutive quarter. The seasonally adjusted index was 14., the highest point with year 2 as the base. By type of goods, there were increases in producer goods (by 1.1% (id.), up for the fifth consecutive quarter), non-durable consumer goods (by 2.7% (id.), up for the first time in four quarters), and durable consumer goods (by 3.1% (id.), up for the second consecutive quarter). In contrast, there were decreases in capital goods (by 3.9% (id.), down for the first time in two quarters), and construction goods (by 2.5% (id.), down for the third consecutive quarter). By industry, there were increases in nine industries, including the electronic parts and devices industry, chemicals industry, and transport equipment industry, while decreases were observed in eight industries, including the general machinery industry, fabricated metals industry, and ceramics, stone and clay products industry. By demand, shipments for domestic demand decreased by.3% compared to the previous quarter, down for the first time in two quarters, while those for exports increased by 3.% (id.), up for the fourth consecutive quarter. Changes in Industrial Production, Shipments, Inventory, and Inventory Ratio (2=1, Seasonally adjusted) Production Shipments Inventory Inventory Ratio Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 25 Ⅰ

4 Changes in Indices of Industrial Production (2=1, Seasonally adjusted) Ⅰ Production (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Shipments (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Domestic (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Exports (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Inventory (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Inventory Ratio (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) Operation Rate (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) Notes: 1. The values for Domestic Shipments and Exports are based on the Indices of Industrial Domestic Shipments and Exports. 2. The annual values and %change from the same quarter of the previous year are original indices, and others are based on indices seasonally adjusted. 3. The indices of industrial production are obtained through annual correction for 25 and recalculation of seasonal index

5 2 Production trend by item The major items for which production increased in the current quarter are as follows: large passenger cars increased by 6.7% compared to the previous quarter, up for the second consecutive quarter, due to increases in domestic demand as well as exports mainly to North America and Europe; metal oxide semiconductor IC (logic) increased by 13.8% (id.), up for the first time in two quarters, due to increases in demand for cellular telephones, metal oxide semiconductor IC (memory) also increased by 7.1% (id.) due to increases in demand for cellular telephones, up for the fifth consecutive quarter. On the other hand, semiconductor products machinery had maintained a high level, but decreased by 8.5% compared to the previous quarter, down for the first time in three quarters. Parts and accessories of boilers decreased by 48.5% (id.), down for the first time in two quarters, due to decreases in exports to Asia and demand for repairs for domestic power companies. Steel bridges decreased by 2.4% (id.), down for the first time in two quarters, due to decreases in public works. Production Trend by Item (First quarter of 26) Items that contributed to Increase Changes from the Prevoius Contribution Ratio (% points) 1Large passenger cars Metal Oxide Semiconductor IC (Logic) Metal Oxide Semiconductor IC (Memory) Lithium ion storage batteries Cellular telephones Metal Oxide Semiconductor IC (Micro computer) Metal Oxide Semiconductor IC (CCD) Digital cameras Active matrix LCD (Middle and small) Numerically controlled robots Hair care products Oil space heaters Shovel type excavators Printing machinery Chassis and Body parts Items that contributed to Decrease Changes from the Prevoius Contribution Ratio (% points) 1Semiconductor products machinery Parts and accessories of boilers Steel bridges Special purpose machinery Flat-panel display manufacturing equipment Semiconductor characteristic measuring equipments Personal computers Cranes Digital and full color copying machines Mechanical presses Note: Degree of contribution to total growth rate of.6% (percentage points) - 4 -

6 3 Inventory trend For overall industrial production, inventory increased by 3.2% compared to the end of the same quarter of the previous year, up for the fifth consecutive quarter. Production also increased by 3.2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, up for the second consecutive year. As a result, on the chart of inventory cycle, inventory was on the border line between an inventory accumulation stage and an expanding inventory stage. By type of goods, both production and inventory of final demand goods have been on a medium- and long-term declining trend, and the center of circulation has shifted toward the left and downward. Therefore, we will examine the inventory trends together with the values from which trend fluctuations for production and inventory have been eliminated. Although the degree of increase in inventory has diminished compared to the previous quarter, inventory was in an expanding stage both before and after elimination of trend fluctuations. Before elimination, inventory increased compared to the end of the same quarter of the previous year for the second consecutive quarter, and production increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In contrast, after elimination, inventory continued to increase, up for the ninth consecutive year since the first quarter of 24. As for production goods, inventory was near the border between an accumulation stage and an expanding stage. This is because inventory increased compared to the end of the same quarter of the previous year for the sixth consecutive year, and production increased for the third consecutive year while widening increases. As for the electronic parts and devices industry, for which production adjustment has been conducted due to inventory expansion since late 24, inventory increased by 15.2% compared to the end of the same quarter of the previous year and production increased by 23.% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Both showed a double-digit increase. Inventory was near the border of an accumulation stage and an expanding stage. Changes in the Inventory Cycle %Change in inventories from the end of the same quarter of the previous year Inventory adjustment stage 1Mining and manufacturing Expanding inventory stage 25-I 26-I 2-IV (Peak) Before elimination Unintended decreasing stage of Inventory accumulation stage %Change in production from the same quarter of the previous year %Change in inventories from the end of the same quarter of the previous year Inventory adjustment stage 2Final demand goods Expanding inventory stage Before elimination After elimination 26-I 2-IV (Peak) 24-III Inventory accumulation stage Unintended decreasing stage of inventories %Change in production from the same quarter of the previous year - 5 -

7 %Change in inventories from the end of the same quarter of the previous year Inventory adjustment stage 3Producer goods Expanding inventory stage 24-IV 2-IV (Peak) 26-I Inventory accumulation Before elimination Unintended decreasing stage of inventories %Change in production from the same quarter of the previous year %Change in inventories from the end of the same quarter of the previous year Electronic parts and devices Inventory adjustment stage Expanding inventory stage 26-I 2-IV (Peak) 24-II Before elimination Inventory accumulation stage Unintended decreasing stage of inventories %Change in production from the same quarter of the previous year Note: Trend fluctuations of the production index and the inventory index were obtained by the linear regression formula of the least squares method from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of

8 4 Characteristics of mining and manufacturing industry in the current business recovery stage Whether the current business recovery stage, which bottomed out in January 22, will exceed the Izanagi boom (October 1965 July 197 (57 months) ), the longest boom after the war, has attracted people s attention. We outline the trends and characteristics of industries highly contributing to the current recovery stage Note1) (leading kinds of industry) by comparing the current recovery stage (hereinafter referred to as the cycle ) with the former recovery stage (The 13th cycle was rather short, so we will make a comparison with the cycle.). Comparing the change rate Note2) of overall industrial shipments in the recovery stages in the cycle and cycle, the rate in the cycle was 6.3% (with increases in 12 out of 15 kinds of industry, such as the electrical machinery industry (old classification) Note3), general machinery industry, and chemicals industry, etc.), while that in the cycle was 1.2% (with increases in 13 out of 17 kinds of industry, such as the electronic parts and devices industry, general machinery industry, and transport equipment industry). Exports of the electric machinery industry (old classification) increased and exports of the transport machinery industry started to increase in the current stage, which significantly raised the contribution ratio of exports to the change rate of overall industrial shipments, up from.9% points in the cycle to 3.5% points in the cycle. Note1: The current business recovery stage or the cycle here is provisional. Note2: For a comparison that reflects the trend during the period, the change rate is calculated by dividing average index during the recovery period by index value at the trough. Note3: The electrical machinery industry (old classification) here refers to the total of the present electric machinery industry, information and communication electronics equipment industry, and electronic parts and devices industry. Comparison between Business Recovery Stages in the Cycle and the Cycle 1Comparative chart Cycle Cycle Shipments Exports Domestic demand 1993-IV IV to 1997-II Change rate (%) Contribution ratio to change rate (%) 6.3(1.).9(13.6) 5.5(86.6) 22-I I to 26-I Change rate (%) Contribution ratio to change rate (%) 1.2(1.) 3.5(34.3) 6.4(63.2) 2Shipments (Trough = 1, Seasonally adjusted) The Cycle The Cycle Peak (The Cycle) Trough quarter - 7 -

9 3Exports (Trough = 1, Seasonally adjusted) The Cycle The Cycle Peak (The Cycle) 9 Trough quarter 4Domestic demand (Trough = 1, Seasonally adjusted) The Cycle The Cycle Peak (The Cycle) Trough quarter Note: Comparison of average index between the troughs (22-I and 1993-IV) and the recovery stages of the cycle and the cycle (22-I to 26-I and 1993-IV to 1997-II) Change rate = Average index at the recovery stage / Index value at the trough Contribution ratio to change rate refers to that to overall mining and manufacturing industry. Straight lines in figures are trend lines. Source: Breakdown List of Mining and Manufacturing Shipments - 8 -

10 We will compare the difference in the contribution ratios to the change rates in the cycle and the cycle (contribution ratio in the cycle contribution ratio in the cycle), considering it as the difference of pulling force. For overall industrial shipments, the difference in the change rates was positive (pulling force was stronger) both for exports and domestic demand, and exports accounted for more than 7% of the difference, which indicates that the pulling force of exports was strong in the cycle. By industry, the difference in the contribution ratios was positive for seven out of 15 kinds of industry, among which the electrical machinery industry (old classification) (the rate of contribution to the difference in the contribution ratios of overall mining and manufacturing industry, a little more than 6%), the transport equipment industry (a little less than 4% (id.)), and the general machinery industry (a little more than 2% (id.)) showed an even stronger pulling force. The pulling force of the electrical machinery industry (old classification) (The difference in the contribution ratios was positive mainly for ICs and electronic parts.) has been strengthened by the increasing diffusion rate of digital cameras and slim-type TVs in the cycle. The active pulling force of the transport equipment industry (The difference in the contribution ratios was positive mainly for motor vehicle parts and passenger cars.) was backed by a steady demand from overseas in the cycle, and that of the general machinery industry (The difference in the contribution ratios was positive mainly for special industrial machinery, etc.) was supported by sound capital investment in the cycle, such as an increase in demand for flat-panel display manufacturing equipment due to diffusion of slim-type TVs. In the cycle, contribution of exports was notable compared to that in the cycle. By industry, the electronic parts and devices industry, general machinery industry, and transport equipment industry showed a strong pulling power, and the forecasting indices of these three industries indicate further growth in the next quarter. At present, rising prices of raw materials have caused concern, but steady capital investment can be expected for the time being. Increases in demand are also expected deriving from the Soccer World Cup held in June and July, the transition from analog to digital broadcasting, and the start of one-segment broadcasting this April. Comparison of Domestic and Foreign Demand by Industry, between Business Recovery Stages in the Cycle and the Cycle 1Mining and manufacturing industry and change rate by industry (%) Domestic demand Exports Mining & Iron & steel manufacturing Nonferrous metals Fabricated metals General machinery Electrical machinery (old) Transport equipment Precision instruments Ceramics, stone & clay products Chemicals Petroleum & coal products Plastic products Pulp, paper & paper products Textiles Foods & tobacco Others manufacturing - 9 -

11 2Difference in contribution ratio (difference in pulling force) by industry Domestic demand Exports Mining & manufacturing Electrical machinery (old) Transport equipment General machinery Others Iron & steel Plastic products Precision instruments 3Difference in contribution ratio (difference in pulling force) of the electrical machinery industry (old classification) Petroleum & coal products Non-ferrous metals Textiles Pulp, paper & paper products Ceramics, stone & clay products Domestic demand Exports Electrical machinery (old) Integrated circuits Electronic parts Household electronic machinery Batteries Semiconductor devices Semiconductor parts Wiring devices & luminaries Electrical rotating machinery Electrical measuring instruments Switching devices Electrical stationary machinery Associated electronic equipment Household electrical machinery Communication equipment Electronic computers Fabricated metals Foods & tobacco Chemicals 4Difference in contribution ratio (difference in pulling force) of the transport equipment industry 12 1 Domestic demand Exports Transport equipment Motor vehicle parts Passenger cars Ships & ship engines Note: Change rate = Average index at the recovering stage / Index value at the trough Contribution ratio = (Average index at the recovering stage Index value at the trough) Weight Difference in contribution ratios = Contribution ratio in the cycle Contribution ratio in the cycle. Source: Breakdown List of Mining and Manufacturing Shipments Trucks Industrial vehicles Buses Motorcycles - 1 -

12 (3) Outline of tertiary industry activities Tertiary industry activities on a moderate upward trend 1 Trend for the quarter Tertiary industry activities for the first quarter of 26 increased by.5% compared to the previous quarter, up for the sixth consecutive quarter. By industry, there were increases in seven industries out of 11, compound services, wholesale and retail trade, and services, while there were decreases in four industries, the finance and insurance, real estate, and electricity, gas, heat supply and water. Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities 2 Ratio to the previous quarter, 1 Index level (2=1, Seasonally adjusted) Contribution ratio to growth rate Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Transport Finance and Insurance Services Information and Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade Medical, Health Care and Welfare Tertiary Industry Ⅰ 26 (%) Ⅱ Ⅲ Others 25 Services Medical, Health Care and Welfare Finance and Insurance Wholesale and Retail Trade Transport Information and Communication Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Tertiary Industry Ⅰ 26 Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities (2=1, Seasonally adjusted) Ⅰ Tertiary Industry (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Information and Communication (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Transport (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Wholesale and Retail Trade (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Finance and Insurance (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Real Estate (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Eating and Drinking Places, Accommodations (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Medical, Health Care and Welfare (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Learning Support (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Compound Services (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Services (%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) (%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) Note: Industries on the chart are the major seven industries in the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities. Contribution ratios include others, which is the total of four industries other than the major seven industries. The annual values and %change from the same quarter of the previous year are original indices, and others are based on indices seasonally adjusted

13 2 Situation and trend of employment in the tertiary industry Indices of tertiary industry activities increased for the third consecutive year. The tertiary industry is more labor-intensive than the secondary industry, and therefore, we will look at the trend of the employment structure to examine whether increased activities have caused any changes in the number of employees or the percentages of permanent employees and nonpermanent employees. Looking at the number of employees in the tertiary industry by kind of industries, services, medical, Health care and welfare, and information and communication, whose indices of activities have been on the rise, also showed increases in the number of employees. In contrast, finance and insurance showed a declining trend in the number of employees, in spite of an increase in the indices of activities. Observing increases and decreases in the number of employees by sex, females have shown increases constantly since 1999 and have contributed to increase more significantly than males. Males have also shown increases, except in 1999 and 22. Next, we will compare the number of employees by age group (five years of age each) in 25 with the number of employees in the younger age group (five years younger) in 2 (five years ago). For females, each age group up to 29 years old showed an increase, the age group between 3 and 34 showed a decrease, and again each age group between 35 and 49 showed an increase. This is because females are usually employed after graduating from senior high schools or universities, leave their jobs due to marriage, childbearing and childrearing, and again seek employment afterwards. Most of the increase in the number of employees aged 35 or over is seen in the tertiary industry. Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities (2=1) Tertiary Industry Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Information and Communication Transport Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Medical, Health Care and Welfare Services Others Note: Others refer to Real Estate, Eating and Drinking places, Accommodations, Learning Support, and Compound Services

14 Y/Y Change and Contribution Ratio of Number of Employees in the Tertiary Industry by Kind of Industry (%) Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Information and Communication Transport Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Medical, Health Care and Welfare Services Others Tertiary Industry Note: Others refers to Real Estate, Eating and Drinking places, Accommodatios, Learning Support, and Compound Services. Source: Labour Force Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Y/Y Change and Contribution Ratio of Number of Employees in the Tertiary Industry by Sex (%) Males Females Total Source: Labour Force Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Changes in Number of Female Employees by Industry and Age Group (2 to 25) (1, presons) The primary industry 2 The secondary industry 15 The tertiary industry All industries As of 25 (Age) Note: Figures show changes between the number of employees by age group in 25 and the number of employees in the five-year younger age group in 2. The figure for the age group as of 25 shows changes from the number of employees aged 14 or younger in 2 ( as this age group is not covered by the survey). Source: Labour Force Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

15 Looking at the distribution ratio of the number of employees by status in employment the ratio of non-regular staff(part-time worker and dispatched worker, etc.) is higher in the tertiary industry than other industries. By sex, female part-timers are large in number. The number of full-time employees Note1) in the tertiary industry had been on a declining trend until 24, but started to increase in 25. In contrast, the number of part-time employees Note2) increased significantly since 21, but the increase slowed down in 25. As explained so far, increased activities in the tertiary industry have caused an increase in the number of employees. With a significant influence of certain industries, such as medical, health care and welfare, positive conditions of the tertiary industry have increased chances for females to become employed as part-time workers. Furthermore, some different trends can be observed in the employment structure of the tertiary industry, such as an increase in 25 in the number of full-time employees, which had been on a decline for some time. Note1: Full-time employee refers to regular employee excluding part-time employee. Note2: Part-time employee refers to those whose normal working hours per day or normal working days per week are shorter than those of full-time employee. Distribution Ratio of Number of Employees by Status in Employment (%) Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry (August) (August) (August) Self-employed worker, Doing piecework at home, and Family worker Executive of company or corporaion and regular staff Non-regular staff Note: Unknown distribution ratios by industry for August 2 of certain industries were calculated based on estimates. Source: The Special Survey of the Labour Force Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Labour Force Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

16 Number of Non-regular staff by Status in Employment and Age (25) 1 Males (1, persons) 3 2 Females (1, persons) or over Others Contract employee, entrusted employee Dispatched worker from temporary agency Part-time worker, Arbeit(temporary worker) or over Source: Labour Force Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Changes in Number of Full-time employees and Part-time employees by Industry (2=1) Tertiary industry Part-time Secondary industry Part-time Tertiary industry Full-time 9 8 Secondary industry Full-time Note: Figures are calculated based on the numbers of full-time employees and part-time employees and the indices of employee by industrial category in 25 retroactively to the past. Source: Monthly Labour Survey (Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare)