Dilbeck Real Estate's MARKET UPDATE

Transcription

1 Dilbeck Real Estate's MARKET UPDATE Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes Trends in Pricing Current Levels of Supply and Demand Value Metrics Report for the week of August 22, 2011 Presented by Dilbeck Real Estate Customer Care Dilbeck Real Estate - info@dilbeck.com Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright Altos Research LLC

2 City Overview ARCADIA, CA This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in ARCADIA, CA this week is $880,000. The 211 properties have been on the market for an average of 104 days. Demand measured by the Market Action Index is increasing and dayson-market is trending downward. Even as more properties come available, these are positive trends for the market. Supply and Demand Home sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks. Since this is a Buyer's market prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. However, as the supply and demand trends continue, the market moves into the Seller's zone, and we are likely to see upward pressure on pricing. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Buyer's $ 880,000 $ % 11 % 2 % acre 17.7 The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 1,230, $ 8,800,000 $ 230,000 == == == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 46 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 1,998, acre Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 1,149, acre Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 730, ,001-10,000 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 450, ,501-6,500 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 2 of 11

3 City Overview ARCADIA, CA Median Price Again this week we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus their absolute-high levels. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend. Quartile Prices We see recent price weakness across most market segments. Quartile 3 has been trending up recently, but unless we see a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index, it will likely resume the trend of the rest of the market. Page 3 of 11

4 City Overview ARCADIA, CA Price per Square Foot The market's downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes (you can see the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index as a precursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply. Page 4 of 11

5 City Overview ARCADIA, CA Market Action Index The ARCADIA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall market shifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group changes. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. Page 5 of 11

6 City Overview ARCADIA, CA Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 104 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 56 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 6 of 11

7 Neighborhood Detail This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in ARCADIA, CA this week is $1,025,000. The 61 properties have been on the market for an average of 90 days. Inventory is tightening and days-onmarket is falling. But demand as measured by the Market Action Index is also trending down. The market is not giving strong up or down signals from these data. Supply and Demand Home sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks. Since this is a Buyer's market prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. However, as the supply and demand trends continue, the market moves into the Seller's zone, and we are likely to see upward pressure on pricing. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Market Action Index Altos Research Value Statistics Strong Buyer's $ 1,025,000 $ % 18 % 2 % acre The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 1,251,803 == Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 61 $ 4,288,000 $ 498, Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 1,968, acre Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 1,280, acre Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 900, acre Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 714, ,001-10,000 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 7 of 11

8 Neighborhood Detail Median Price This week prices in this zip code bumped up a bit but the trend of recent weeks is generally downward. A pickup in demand will be reflected in the Market Action Index, so watch that chart to try to identify a trough in the market. Quartile Prices In the quartile market segments, we see pricing conditions recently have been slightly negative in this zip code. Quartile 3 has been trending up recently, but unless we see a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index, it will likely resume the trend of the rest of the market. Page 8 of 11

9 Neighborhood Detail Price per Square Foot The market's downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes (you can see the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index as a precursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities. Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply. Page 9 of 11

10 Neighborhood Detail Market Action Index The ARCADIA, market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Market Action Index per Quartile Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts. Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. Page 10 of 11

11 Neighborhood Detail Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 90 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 42 or so days. Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. Page 11 of 11