GIS & Retail Location Science

Transcription

1 GIS & Retail Location Science Robert G. Welch Synergos Technologies, Inc. April 9, 2010 Agenda Who we are The state of the retail research industry Where the industry is going Challenges the industry faces 1

2 Synergos Technologies, Inc. Who we are... Synergos Technologies works in the data and technology field and has a 18 year track record of service. Synergos produces top rated data products used by a variety of industries for the past 9 years. Distinctive methodologies and delivery options define the many market research products. 2

3 Our Product Suite: STI: PopStats Population estimates and projections STI: WorkPlace Work place statistics STI: Spending Patterns Consumer expenditures STI: Landscape Lifestyle segmentation STI: Market Outlook Market Potential STI: Colossus Econometrics (release Spring of 2010) Who we work with Grocery: Krogers, Safeway, Whole Foods Department: t JC Penney, Sears Discount: Family Dollar, BigLots!, Ross Stores DrugStore: CVS, Walgreens, Save-On Specialty: Sally Beauty, Best Buy, Radio Shack Restaurants: Chipotle, Panera Bread, Chick-Fil-A Developers: Simon, Regency Centers, Weingarten Brokerage: Jones Lang LaSalle, Colliers Telecommunications: AT&T, Sprint, Verizon Economic Development: Entergy 3

4 The Retail Organization The state of the retail research industry Typical Retail Organization From a Real Estate Perspective Real Estate Committee COO CFO Developers Brokers Landlords Corporate Development Market Research 4

5 Working with the Retail Organization Using Clichés Follow the Money Understand the compensation plans or rewards of each of the players Does the site complement corporate goals? Honesty is the Best Policy Don t stretch the stats Median vs. Mean Trade Area vs. Market Area Have your facts tell a story The Marketing Research Group Data & Models 5

6 Traditional Data Requirements: Common Market Research Models Checklist Method Analog Approach Regression Models Gravity Models 6

7 Checklist Approach A site can be determined if it contains/has access to a list of required items. Pros Simple to implement Data collection Not open to interpretation Easy to understand d Cons No sales forecast available Purely subjective Analog Approach Based on the assumption that a proposed site is analogous to an existing site. Pros Easy to identify with Produces a sales forecast Cons Must have a well defined store network Selecting analogous store problematic 7

8 Regression Models A mathematical representation of a site and how it relates to its surroundings. Pros Allows for disparate measures to be accounted for Provides a solid control paradigm Cons Difficult to measure inputs Difficult to explain to the novice Gravity Models Based on the assumption that a site is dependent on the interaction of population centers that surround it. Pros Solid foundation of supporting evidence Greatest predictor of competitive influences Cons Extremely expensive to implement Time-consuming 8

9 New Concepts Where the industry is going eharmony.com for Site Selection by Forum Analytics Matches sites to prospects Free to the broker Acts as a filter to the Retailer Brokers Business Development 2,000 Best Sites eharmony Model 6,000 Sites per Month Developers Landlords 9

10 Lifestyle Segmentation with Attitude Traditional lifestyle segmentation, Married with attitudes and perceptions. Successfully used in Grocery and Drug Lifestyle Segmentation in Action Dark Green - Wealthy families Hot Pink - Well-to-do singles Medium Blue - Middle Class Families 10

11 Beverly Hills By Category Crème de la Crème Thriving Alone River Oaks By Category Crème de la Crème Thriving Alone 11

12 Are they really the same lifestyle? Based on discussions with local retailers in both markets, we know: Beverly Hills, California Liberal in purchasing (Versace and Prada) River Oaks, Texas (in Houston) Conservative in purchasing (Ralph Lauren and Hickey Freeman) Beverly Hills Conservative Index 12

13 River Oaks Conservative Index Volume Processing Problem: Loyalty Card programs High volume Disparate databases Inaccessible by most people in the organization Solution: Data Integration Software Alteryx Datalever 13

14 Open Source meets GIS Open Source Software Platforms Mapnik MapServer Open Source GIS Data Open Street Map (OSM) Census Tiger (shapefile) Google, Bing, and mashups Challenges the Industry Faces 14

15 Privacy The Privacy Act of 2002 Limitations on the collection, use and dissemination of personally identifiable information about an individual. Disclosure restrictions to third parties. Access and amendments rights of the individuals who are subjects of the files. Notification to the public of collections of information on them (forms and web sites), and record systems (Federal Register Privacy System Notice. Secret records on individuals cannot be maintained. Maintenance requirements American Community Survey (ACS) Completely replaces the Census Long form Controversial GAO (cost benefit analysis considers it a failure) Public (confusion and an inundation in more surveys) Business (no longer has a fixed and accurate point of reference) US Census (concedes accuracy to timeliness) Congress (requires annual congressional approval) Pros More timely (annual) Cons Far less accurate (due to sample size) Far less accurate (due to averaging) 15

16 Internet Micro-Communities If I look long enough I ll find someone who agrees with me. Word-of-mouth advertising Screw-up and the whole world knows it in about 2 seconds. Versus Bricks and Mortar Does the touchy-feely consumer still exist? Google Something to Ponder Setting the standard for expectations? When is free no longer free? Is a monopoly forming before our very eyes? 16