Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand

Transcription

1 Marketing Management Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand Md Afnan Hossain Lecturer SouthEast University Course Code: Mkt 3123 (D,E) Contents Source: Kotlar, Keller, Koshy, Jha (2014) Marketing Management. Forbes, The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Business Week, CNN Business

2 What is Marketing Research? Marketing research is the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.

3 The Marketing Research Process Define the problem Develop research plan Collect information Analyze information Make decision Present findings

4 Research Approaches Observation Ethnographic--link between culture & behavior &/or how cultural processes develop over time (participant observation) Focus group discuss topics of interest (LS) Survey knowledge, beliefs, preferences, satisfaction Behavioral data--data purchasing data Experimentation cause and effect relationships

5 Focus Group in Session

6 Research Instruments Questionnaires Qualitative Measures Technological Devices

7 Questionnaire Do s and Don ts Ensure questions are free of bias Make questions simple Make questions specific Avoid jargon Avoid sophisticated words Avoid ambiguous words Avoid negatives Avoid hypothetical's Avoid words that could be misheard Use mutually exclusive categories Allow for other in fixed response questions

8 Question Types - Dichotomous In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines? Yes No

9 Question Types Multiple Choice With whom are you traveling on this trip? No one Spouse Spouse and children Children only Business associates/friends/relatives An organized tour group

10 Question Types Likert Scale Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones. Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree

11 Question Types Semantic Differential American Airlines Large....Small Experienced..Inexperienced Modern...Old-fashioned

12 Question Types Importance Scale Airline food service is to me. Extremely important Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important

13 Question Types Rating Scale American Airlines food service is. Excellent Very good Good Fair Poor

14 Question Types Intention to Buy Scale How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available? Definitely buy Probably buy Not sure Probably not buy Definitely not buy

15 Question Types Completely Unstructured What is your opinion of American Airlines?

16 Question Types Word Association What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following? Airline American Travel

17 Question Types Sentence Completion When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is:.

18 Question Types Story Completion I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings. Now complete the story.

19 Question Types Picture (Empty Balloons)

20 Question Types Thematic Apperception Test Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture.

21 Camera journals ask consumers to keep visual diaries of activities and impression related to a product Extreme user interviews talking to people about a product and evaluating their experience with it Storytelling prompting people to tell personal stories about their consumer experiences Unfocused groups interview a diverse group of people to explore ideas Qualitative Measures Shadowing observing people Behavior mapping photographing people with a space 2 or 3 days Consumer journey keeping track of interactions a consumer has with a product, service, or space

22 Technological Devices Galvanometers (measure interest or emotions aroused by Exposure to a specific ad or picture) Tachistoscope (flashes an ad to a Subject with an exposure interval and respondent describes everything he/she recalls) Eye cameras (study respondents eye movement to see where their eyes land 1 st and how long, etc.) Audiometers (record when TV is on and the channel) GPS (global positioning system, can Determine how many billboards a person may walk or drive by during a day)

23 Sampling Plan Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? Sample size: How many people should be surveyed? Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen?

24 Types of Samples Probability Simple random Every member of population has an equal chance of selection Stratified random Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (age groups) and random samples are drawn from each group Cluster area Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (city blocks) and a sample is taken from each group Non-probability Convenience Selects the most accessible population members Judgment Selects population members who are good prospects for accurate information Quota Selects and interviews a prescribed number of people in each of several categories

25 Contact Methods Mail Questionnaire (For people that would not give personal interviews or whose responses might be biased or distorted by interviewer) Telephone Interview (Gather information quickly, however interview are short and non-personal) Personal Interview (Most versatile and expensive, subject to interview bias or distortion) 4-25 Online Interview (Inexpensive, faster, honest, versatile, samples small and skewed, tech problems and inconsistencies)

26 Pros and Cons of Online Research Advantages Inexpensive Fast Accuracy of data, even for sensitive questions Versatility Disadvantages Small samples Skewed samples Technological problems Inconsistencies

27 Barriers Limiting the Use of Marketing Research A narrow conception of the research Uneven caliber of researchers Poor framing of the problem Late and occasionally erroneous findings Personality and presentational differences

28 What are Marketing Metrics? Marketing metrics are the set of measures that helps marketers quantify, compare, and interpret marketing performance.

29 Marketing Metrics External Awareness Market share Relative price Number of complaints Customer satisfaction Distribution Total number of customers Loyalty Internal Awareness of goals Commitment to goals Active support Resource adequacy Staffing levels Desire to learn Willingness to change Freedom to fail Autonomy

30 What is Marketing-Mix Modeling? Marketing-mix models analyze data from a variety of sources, such as retailer scanner data, company shipment data, pricing, media, and promotion spending data, to understand more precisely the effects of specific marketing activities.

31 Marketing Dashboards A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures. A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company s performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.

32 Vocabulary for Demand Measurement Market demand total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined marketing environment under a defined marketing program. Market forecast expected level of industry expenditure Market potential upper limit of industry expenditure Company demand estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort in a given time period. Company sales forecast expected level of company sales based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment. Company sales potential sales limit approached by company demand as company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors.

33 Estimating Current Demand Total market potential Maximum amount of sales available to all the firms in an industry during: a given period under a given level of industry marketing effort, and environmental conditions. Area market potential Market buildup method Identifying all potential buyers in each market and estimating their potential purchases Multiple-factor index method Sales are directly related to a series of indices Brand development index Index of brand sales to category sales

34 Estimating Future Demand Survey of Buyers Intentions probability of purchase Composite of Sales Force Opinions salespeople Expert Opinion dealers, distributors, suppliers, marketing consultants, trade associations Past-Sales Analysis trend, cycle, seasonal, erratic Market-Test Method select some territories to sell the product

35 Thank you for your presence & patient hearing