CNIA View On China's Copper Usage 2015/2016

Transcription

1 CNIA View On China's Copper Usage 2015/2016 Li Yusheng China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association London UK 15 th October, 2015

2 CONTENTS 1 China s copper market review in January-August China s copper usage forecast for 2015/2016 2

3 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 A Copper supply: production & imports 01 1 B C by sectors 3

4 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 China s copper market demonstrated the following characteristics in the first eight months: Production and consumption slow down 01 Import of copper scrap, blister and refined copper decreased, that of copper concentrate was an exception Inventory in bonded warehouse was falling Smelting/Refining Capacity were still increasing, but some projects are delayed 4 The refined copper consumption was weak, but the apparent consumption in the first 8 months saw slight growth

5 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 A Copper supply--production in January-August 2015 Copper-in- Concentrate Jan-Aug 2014 Y-O-Y Jan-Aug 2015 Y-O-Y % % 01 2 Refined Copper % % Copper semis % % kt Source: CNIA Note: Copper concentrate- metal weight, copper semis gross weight 5

6 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 A Copper supply--copper imports in Jan - Aug 2015 kt In Jan.-Aug. of 2015, copper concentrate import reached 8.12 mlnt, with an increase of 11.4% yoy, as copper smelting capacity expansion in rencent years and 01 higher TC/RC in The refined copper import decreased, especially for bonded warehouse import reduced by 19.3% to 878kt. Products Copper * concentrate Copper scrap Jan-Aug y-o-y Import % Import % The SHFE/LME ratio rebounded in Q3 2015, refined copper import from bonded warehouse increased. Copper blister/anode Refined Copper Import % Import % Export % 6 Source: China Customs * Gross weight

7 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 B In the first 8 months, China's Refined copper apparent consumption was mlnt, ticked up 0.42% year-on year, far lower than 17.70% in Because Production 01 growth slowed down Refined copper import dropped Macro economic growth lower than expectation The output of major industrial products mostly saw decrease. Refined Copper Output Refined Copper Net Import Refined Cu Apperent Consumption Source: CNIA 7 Jan-Aug 2014 Y-O-Y Jan-Aug 2015 kt Y-O-Y % % % % % %

8 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 B Investment in Power Industry in Jan.-Aug Bln yuan Yoy: -1.5% Yoy: 11.6% Jan-Aug 2014 Jan-Aug 2015 Power generation Power grid Mln KW Newly Installed Power General Capacity Yoy: 8.9% Jan-Aug 2014 Jan-Aug 2015 Soure:China Electricity Council 8

9 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 B Real estate development in January- August Mln m2 Indicators Jan - Aug 2014 y-o-y Jan - Aug 2015 y-o-y Floor Space 0 of Commercialized Residential Under Construction Floor Space of Commercialized Residential Started This Year Floor Space of Commercialized Residential Completed Floor Space of Commercialized Residential Buildings Sold Source: NBS % % % % % % % % 9

10 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 B Major Industrial Products Output (copper usage) in January- August Products 0 Source: NBS Unit January - August 2014 January - August 2015 yoy % Output yoy % Output Automobiles mln unit Power Equipments mln kw AC Motors mln kw Household Refrigerator mln unit Household Freezers mln unit Househoud Air mln unit Conditioners Transformer mln KVA Power Cables mln Km Communication Cables mln Km (double) Copper Semis mlnt

11 China s copper market review in January-August 2015 C by sectors Remarks Consumer goods: refrigerator,air-conditioner, freezer, door-lock, small household applicance, kitchen utensil, etc. Machinery: locomotive, construction machinery,instruments, heavy mining machinery, machinery tool manufactruing, etc. 11 Source: CNIA

12 China's Copper usage forecast for 2015/2016 A 01 2 B Conclusion 12

13 China's copper market Forecast 2015/2016 A will continue to slow down, averaging at 4% growth rate, and the power industry is the main driver in the next two years Refined copper output will grow at a rate of around 5%, and will remain a moderate pace in the future. Copper scrap supply will be increased, even copper scrap import showed a decline trend. Refined copper surplus will be reduced. 13

14 China's copper market Forecast 2015/2016 A 01 Refinded copper import shows a downward trend. Supply and Demand Supply The growth rate of China's copper output will continue to slow down. Demand In , Chinese government will invest 2 trillion RMB in upgrading power distribtution network, Cable duct bank plan, Electric Vehicle Charging Station program, these will be the main driver for copper demand in China. The real estate is hard to have good performance, vehicle purchase quotas in some cities and enviromental issue will impact the vehicle production, copper demand in transportation sector will slow down; constrined by high inventory for air-conditioner, the copper demand growth in ACR will be lower. 14

15 China's copper market Forecast 2015/2016 A Copper scrap supply Copper scrap Usage kt kt 30.6% 30.3% 35.5% 38.5% 39.3% 68.8% 70.9% 70.9% 71.8% 72.7% Source: Antaike CNIA 15

16 China's copper market Forecast 2015/2016 A Refined copper supply/demand kt 2015 Y-O-Y 2016 Y-O-Y Output 8, % 8, % Import* 3, % 3, % Export* % % Demand 9, % 10, % Balance 1,239 1,140 Source: CNIA Antaike* 16

17 China's copper market Forecast 2015/2016 B Conclusion The Chinese economy has entered a state of "new normal", the gear of growth is shifting from high speed to medium-to-high speed. In 2015/2016, China s copper production and consumption will be in a medium-high level growth rate, from two-digit growth rate to one-digit growth rate. Domestic copper scrap generation will be increased while the import coming down. Copper consumption will be averaging at around 4% growth rate. 17

18 Thank you for your attention! 18