Ferro-alloys and Steel Market in Japan

Transcription

1 Ferro-alloys and Steel Market in Japan Industrial production driven Further application in auto & energy industries 1

2 Corporate Profile of NSRI Board of Directors Intellectual Property Unit President Science & Technology Research Unit Industrial Science & Technology Research Department Steel Research Department Environment & Energy Research Department Overseas Technical Information Department President Kawai 175 members as of 2016/3/1 Economic & Industrial Research Department

3 Steel Research Dept./Areas of Interest (2015) by Sector by Countries

4 Contents 1. Economics and Ferro-alloys 2. Special Steel Market 3. Driving Industries 4. Concluding Remarks 5

5 Contents 1. Economics and Ferro-alloys 2. Special Steel Market 3. Driving Industries 4. Concluding Remarks 6

6 Prospected Japan s GDP Growth 1% growth in GDP is expected Source: "Economic Outlook No 95 - May Long-term baseline projections, OECD World Economic Outlook, IMF Global Economic Prospects, World Bank 7

7 Projection of Working-Age Population (Age15-64) Working age population decreases 1% per a year Note. Projection under medium-fertility and medium-mortality. Source: "Population Projections for Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 8

8 Production of Crude steel ( ) Production of crude steel is stable since 1970 s Source: "Current Production Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry National Accounts, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan 9

9 Consumption of Ferro-alloys ( ) Ferro-alloys consumption kept increasing after 1970 s Source: "Current Production Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 10

10 Consumption of Ferro-alloys ( ) Main driver is Ferro-chromium Souce: "Current Production Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 11

11 Structure of Ferro-alloys Market in Japan (2013) Domestic production is 44% of consumption. Mn and Ni. Source: "Current Production Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japan Ferroalloy Association (tons) Consumption Import Production Ferro-chronium 711, ,858 21,671 Ferro-manganese 509, , ,936 Ferro-silicon 344, ,642 - Silico-manganese 285, ,281 24,741 Ferro-nickel 199,663 41, ,768 Oher ferro-alloys 74,522 42,105 28,377 12

12 Contents 1. Economics and Ferro-alloys 2. Special Steel Market 3. Driving Industries 4. Concluding Remarks 13

13 Structure of Ferro-alloys Consumption (2013) Stainless Steel Stainless Steel High strength steel Electrical steel High strength steel Source: "Current Production Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 14

14 Consumption of Special Steels by Grade (2014) Spring steel 2% Stainless steel 14% Bearing steel Others 5% 7% FY million tons Tool steel 1% Structural steel 42% Structural steel High strength steel Major Usage Machinery parts, building, bridge, ship, auto Building, auto, machinery, tank High strength steel 28% Stainless steel Auto, machinery and building Source: Special Steel Association in Japan and "Trade Statistics, Ministry of Finance 15

15 Consumption of Special Steels by Application(2013) Source: Special Steel Association in Japan 16

16 Stainless Steel use vs GDP per capita (2014) Japanese use more stainless steel than many other nations in Asia. GDP PPP per capita versus stainless steel use per capita in 2014 Source: Stainless Steel in Figures 2015, ISSF 17

17 Contents 1. Economics and Ferro-alloys 2. Special Steel Market 3. Driving Industries 4. Concluding Remarks 18

18 Industries and Special Steel Consumption of special steel is highly correlated with industrial production (IIP) as well as production of automobile (2010=100) (million tons) IIP (left axis) special steel (right axis) FY (million units) 13 (million tons) Auto production (left axis) special steel (right axis) Industrial Production (IIP) Production of Automobile Source: Special Steel Association in Japan, METI, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association FY

19 Domestic vs Overseas Production by Automakers Overseas production is increasing (million units) Domestic Production Export Oversea's Production Japanese Automaker s Production and Export Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association 20

20 Auto Industry: Fuel Economy Regulation on fuel economy leads weight reduction Fuel Economy Standards CO 2 g/km Japan Source: MLIT NIPPON STEEL & SUMITOMO METAL CORPORATION All Rights Reserved. Weight reduction: high strength body, high strength gear, high strength connecting rod, etc. Requirement of higher collision safety Increasing use of light weight materials such as aluminum, resin or carbon-fiber reinforced plastic etc. 21

21 Auto Industry: Hydrogen Fuel Hydrogen society requires stainless steel with antihydrogen-embrittlement Development of hydrogen-filling station Wider use of fuel cell vehicle Wider use of electric vehicle 22

22 Renewable Energy Source: METI Source: METI Development of renewable energy such as wind, solar and geothermal generation. Reduction of feed in tariffs 23

23 Water Industry Percentage of stainless steel pipes Leakage rate, % Percentage of stainless steel pipes(left axis) Leakage rate(right axis) Source: Bureau of Waterworks Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Japan Stainless Steel Association Using stainless for water pipe Increasing overseas demand for water and sewer service Utilization of polyvinyl chloride pipe Severe international competition 24

24 Construction: Building 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal s steel plates used for building structures Source Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Technical Report No Tokyo centralization, 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, Preference for high rise buildings with excellent design Reduce in population 25

25 Construction: Bridge Timelines of maximum spans of bridges Source: Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Technical Report No High performance steel bridge Limitation of fiscal spending 26

26 Contents 1. Economics and Ferro-alloys 2. Special Steel Market 3. Driving Industries 4. Concluding Remarks 27

27 Concluding Remarks Consumption of Ferro-alloys is driven by the demand of special steel. Automobile, machinery and construction are three main applications for special steel. Consumption of special steel is strongly correlated with industrial production (IIP). Further application is expected in auto industry, renewable energy and construction industry. 28

28 Structure of Ferro-alloys Consumption (2013) Water pipe Auto body, Construction, Wind mill Hydrogen station, FCV, Wind mill, Solar frame EV motor Auto body, Construction, Wind mill Source: "Current Production Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 29

29 Thank You! Nippon Steel & Sumikin Research Institute Corporation Kokusai Bldg., 9th Fl., 1-1 Marunouchi 3-chome, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo JAPAN TEL : / FAX : COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2016 NSRI. For internal use only. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted. NSRI shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. 30