Zhao Bo, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. China Copper Industry Outlook

Transcription

1 Zhao Bo, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association China Copper Industry Outlook September 2011

2 I. Overview of China s Copper Industry 1. Copper product output and consumption maintain high growth 2. The globalization process accelerates and import & export trade remains brisk 3. Technologies and equipments have been significantly enhanced 4. Technological research and development get well underway 5. Remarkable achievements have been seen in elimination of obsolete capacity and energy saving & emission reduction September 2011

3 1. Copper products output and consumption maintain high growth Since 2006, China refined copper output has been ranking No.1 for 5 consecutive years. In 2010, refined copper output reached 45.7 million tons, accounting for 24% of global refined copper output, up by 52.3% than that of 2006, with the annual growth rate exceeding 10%; copper output stood at million tons, accounting for more than 50% and ranking No.1 for 7 consecutive years, with the annual growth rate approaching 15%. The apparent consumption will reach 7.51 million tons, twice that of 2006.

4 100, 000 t ons Tendency of Ref i ned Copper Out put bet ween

5 Tendency of Copper Pr oduct s Out put bet ween

6 Tendency of Copper Appar ent Consumpt i on bet ween Between 2009 and 2010, apparent consumption of copper increased significantly as a result of brisk consumption and increased of national reserve and civil inventory, etc.

7 2. The globalization process accelerates and import & export trade remains brisk Between 2006 and 2010, China s copper product import & export trade remained brisk. Copper is the most important nonferrous metal in foreign trade, and with its trade value multiplying, its trade volume accounts for more than 50% of total trade value of nonferrous metals. However, copper is a nonferrous metal with the biggest trade deficit which reached 53.4 billion US dollars in 2011.

8 2006~2010 Copper Product Import & Export Trade Unit: 100,000,000 US dollars Copper products Total trade value Value of export Value of import Import & export deficit Total trade value of nonferrous metals Proportion (%)

9 As China demands for more and more copper, its import of copper products maintains an upward momentum. Copper Pr oduct s I mpor t Tendency bet ween Copper concent r at e Copper wast e & scr ap Unwr ought copper Copper pr oduct s

10 With strength greatly enhanced, Chinese enterprises frequently participate in international cooperation, particularly, making increasing investment in the field of mining. Key copper companies of China, such as China Nonferrous Metal Mining Co., Ltd, CHINALCO, MCC Construction Company, China Minmetals Corporation, Jiangxi Copper Group, JNMC, Tongling Nonferrous Group and Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. have invested in copper mine projects in Zambia, Peru, Afghanistan, Mexico and Canada respectively. During the period of , Chinese enterprises made great progress both in number of copper resources projects and copper reserves.

11 3. Equipment and technologies have been significantly enhanced Mine: China has developed the filling process into a complete system and made breakthrough in waste stone cementation, fulltailing cementation, paste pumping and red-mud cementation, solving the problems of low concentration, low efficiency and high cost of original filling slurry, etc.; block caving has become the most preferred method for large-scale mining of low-grade ores in China. For example, Zhongtiaoshan copper mine is capable of producing 6 million tons of copper ore per year by means of block caving, scraper, belt conveyance, and its large-scale dressing equipments have reached international standard; China s open-cast mining capacity multiplies, for example, Dexing Copper Mine s production capacity has reached 30 million tons/year, and become one of the super-large open-pit mines in the world with daily production capacity of 100,000 tons.

12 Smelting: through technical upgrades and transformation, currently, China s major large-scale smelting enterprises adopt globally advanced smelting technologies, such as flash smelting technology, Ausmelt smelting technology and Isasmelting technology, etc. Copper smelting capacity of advanced technologies accounts for more than 95% of the total capacity.

13 Technical Upgrades of Some Copper Smelting Plants of China No. Company name Technologies Time of starting 1 2 Jiangxi Copper Group Tongling Nonferrous Holding Group 2 sets of Outokumpu flash smelting December 1985/October 2007 Outokumpu flash smelting Ausmelt furnace smelting April 1997, August Yunnan Copper Group Isasmelt furnace smelting May Daye Nonferrous Metals Company Noranda, Ausmelt furnace smelting October 1997 October JNMC Synthetic furnace September Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Company Ausmelt furnace smelting +Ausmelt converting August Inner Mongolia Jinjian Copper Company Ausmelt furnace August Yanggu Xiangguang Copper Company Outokumpu flash smelting +K-O flash converting August 2007

14 Copper Processing and Recycling: The high-precision inner threaded tube molding technology which was developed independently by China, is in a leading position in the world; the combined underflow smelting and holding furnace has broken the fixed pattern that copper liquid is transferred via intermediate sluice in the process of copper and alloy smelting & foundry and combines smelting furnace and holding furnace together. Such furnace has been widely applied in copper processing industry of China, and has received remarkable effect in energy conservation, material saving, environmental protection and streamlining of technological process.

15 Rotary refining furnace and vertical furnace are being promoted in the field of scrap copper refining. In addition, the 200,000-ton cathode copper and copper processing project of Shandong Jinsheng Nonferrous Metals Group, which is under construction, will be the first project of China s copper industry that adopts self-developed rotary refining furnace, indicating that the situation that China s long-time adoption of stationary reflecting furnace in scrap copper refining will be broken.

16 4. Technological research and development get well underway Advanced copper smelting technologies (such as oxygen bottom-flown smelting technology developed independently by China) applicable to China have been further promoted. With features of low cost, lower energy consumption and high adaptability of raw materials, such technologies are the first choice for small and mediumsized enterprises to eliminate obsolete capacity.

17 In terms of processing, China encourages enterprises to carry out research and development of new products and technologies, especially in research and development of alloys that are in shortage domestically, such as high-strength and high-conductivity lead frame material, water tank copper sheets and strips, copper sheets and strips with variable section, high-precision heterotypic copper alloy, ultra-thin capillary, internal and external threaded pipe, copper alloy synchronous gear for high-performance automobile, special copper for high-speed train and trunk line electrification, high-purity oxygen-free copper (below 5ppm), reinforced copper alloy and other high-performance copper alloy, etc., which have met domestic demand to the greatest extent.

18 5. Remarkable achievements are seen in elimination of obsolete capacity and energy saving & emission reduction Between 2006 and 2010, 500,000 tons of obsolete copper smelting capacity were eliminated, and comprehensive energy consumption of copper smelting dropped to 360 kg SCE/ton, down by 50.8% than that of 2005, while utilization and solidification ratio in the process of copper smelting reached 96% and 98% respectively. Water recycling ratio, economic & technical indicators and environmental protection indicators have approached the advanced level in the world. In addition, nearly all solid wastes have been utilized.

19 II. China Copper Industry Outlook Looking into the upcoming 5 years, global demands for copper will maintain a rising momentum; developing countries (including China) will still be the driving force of global copper consumption, and meanwhile, formulation and implementation of the 12th Five-year Planning of Nonferrous Metals Industry will further promote the healthy development of the copper industry. It is estimated that, in the next 5 years, copper industrial structure will be further optimized, growth mode will be transformed remarkably, and technological innovation capabilities will be significantly improved, resources shortage will be mitigated. As a result, China s position in world s copper production will be further enhanced.

20 1. Copper consumption will keep growth Currently, China s biggest copper consumer is electric power industry, accounting for 48.2%; air-conditioning industry accounts for 13.9%; transportation industry accounts for 10.1%; electronic industry accounts for 7.2%; construction industry accounts for 7.1%; and other industries account for 13.5%. Along with acceleration of Chinese urban construction and rural power grid upgrade, the demand of electric power industry for copper will further increase in the next 5 years. In addition, compared with consumption structure of developed countries, China s copper consumption is low in the field of construction and transportation. It is estimated that, with improvement of Chinese people s living standard, copper consumption in the fields of construction and transportation will also increase remarkably. It is estimated that consumption of refining copper will reach approximately 8.5 million tons by 2015.

21 2. Smelting capacity expansion will likely be effectively controlled Guided by copper industrial policy, the layout of copper industry will be optimized to promote industrial upgrade. Industrial access standard will be strictly controlled so as to curb excessive growth of domestic copper smelting capacity. Blind development of copper smelting projects is not allowed in areas lack of resources or without sufficient resources; small smelting plants with backward technology and heavy pollution are not allowed to start and shall be completely eliminated; For areas with resource advantages, under the precondition of reliable resources, copper smelting capacity may be increased appropriately in accordance with standard approval procedure. It is estimated that, with capacity expansion and conclusion of technical transformation of backward capacity of China s large-scale smelting companies, growth of copper smelting capacity will be remarkably slowed down. It is estimated that blister copper capacity will reach 5.5 million tons, and that of refined copper will reach approximately 6.5 million tons.

22 3. Technologies and equipment will reach advanced level of the world, and independent innovation capability will be further improved By supporting copper enterprises to apply advanced, practical and high-tech technologies, mechanized, automatic and large-scale technologies and equipment will be adopted in major mines by 2015, and informatization level will be significantly improved; and all domestic copper enterprises will adopt advanced smelting technologies, and main technical and economic indicators reach advanced level of the world.

23 Copper processing technologies and equipment feature high precision, serialization, energy conservation and environmental protection, and precise copper tube production technologies and equipment continue to remain a leading position in the world. Copper product research & development will be further enhanced, and research in cutting-edge products (such as high-precision hetero-type copper, high-purity oxygen-free copper, environmentfriendly copper alloy, special copper and other high-performance copper and copper alloy materials) will make new breakthroughs; localization of processing equipment will be improved remarkably, and copper processing capacity exceeded 12 million tons.

24 4. Industrial concentration will continue to increase, and enterprise s strength will be further enhanced Through merger, transformation and extension, 2-3 large-scale smelting enterprises with smelting capacity of more than one million tons will emerge in China, and industrial concentration will be further improved. It is estimated that, by 2015, the proportion of refined copper capacity of major enterprises(top 10 enterprises) will increase from the current 75% to more than 90%.

25 5. Progress will be made in international cooperation In recent years, Chinese enterprises has made great headway in foreign cooperation, and some projects have been put into production, such as starting of Zambian Chambishi smelting project. But most mines that have been acquired in recent 2 years are under construction and being researched. It is estimated that certain progress will have been made by the end of 2015, and by then supply shortage of domestic raw materials will be further mitigated.

26 6. Scrap copper recycling system and utilization of recycled copper will be further improved Build recycling economic zone according to China s relevant recycling policies concerning waste electrical appliances and automobile; support competitive enterprises to build large-scale, low-consumption, pollution-free scrap copper recycling and disassembly line and recycled copper production capacity in recycling network center and recycling economic zone, and thereby create a reasonable industrial chain for recycling utilization of scrap copper and improve the recycling and utilization of scrap copper resources.

27 Thank You!