Technology metals scarcity & Umicore s offering Q2 2011

Transcription

1 Technology metals scarcity & Umicore s offering Q2 2011

2 Overview Increasing need for metals Metal scarcity issues Urban mining potential Umicore s involvement

3 View of Guaralhos, Brazil Increasing need for metals

4 Increasing need for metals especially with emerging markets growing Source: BHP Billiton, 2011 Increasing metals need With growth of population With increasing GDP per capita Consumption per capita tapers off in Western countries 4

5 Increasing need for metals Mobile phones gain in complexity and in composition H hydrogen He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium Materials in mobile phone Source: Nokia 5

6 Increasing need for metals Emission legislation imposes automotive catalysts H hydrogen He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium Catalyst Substrate & washcoat 6

7 Increasing need for metals Electrification of the vehicle requires rechargeable batteries H hydrogen He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium New generation Li-ion batteries Old generation NiMH & NiCd batteries 7

8 Increasing need for metals Renewable energy needs drive new photovoltaic materials H hydrogen He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium Active materials Conductors 8

9 Increasing need for technology metals metals Driven by technological evolution and environmental issues H hydrogen He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium Technology metals 9

10 Increasing need for technology metals Reflected in recent mine production 100% 90% 80% 70% Mine production since 1900 % mined in % mined in % 50% 40% 30% 20% % mined mined in in % 0% Re Ga In Ru Pd Rh Ir REE Si Pt Ta Li Se Ni Co Ge Cu Bi Ag Au REE = Rare Earth Elements 10

11 Increasing need for technology metals Example of indium PV Semiconductors Solders & alloys Displays Total world consumption of 1,000 tonnes/year Total world consumption of 2,050 tonnes/year Based on Umicore scenario for PV: 80 GW/year in 2020, 35% share Thin Film PV 11

12 Metal scarcity issues Russia planting flag on North pole in August 2007 claiming land for its resources

13 Metal scarcity issues Absolute metal scarcity Earth crust is limited Gradual depletion of economically mineable resources Limited number of highly concentrated sources Some misconceptions on absolute scarcity of certain metals, e.g.: Lithium Rare earths Precious Metals Source: US Geological Survey,

14 Metal scarcity issues Limited substitution possibilities Challenge to maintain performance which is often based on specific criticalchemical substance properties Example: Opto-electric applications Potential substitute often comes from same metal family: Can you substitute scarce indium by scarce Gallium? Consider side effect of substitution Toxicity Recyclability Price effects 14

15 Metal scarcity issues Temporary metal scarcity Temporary supply-demand imbalances Investments in mining capacity requires cash and time Creates spikes and collapses in metal prices Speculation on the commodities markets enhances the effects Geo-political issues, based on concentrated sources, similar to oil, e.g.: Rare Earth Elements (REE) in China Platinum in Southern Africa Palladium in Russia Lithium in the Andes Cobalt in DRC (Congo) 1,250 1, ,250 1, Ru price $ / tr. oz. New application in hard disc drives Hoarding in Russia Pd price $ / tr.oz

16 Metal scarcity issues Structural scarcity for technology metals Many technology metals come as a by-product from primary mining for base metals Supply of many technology metals is price-inelastic Increased demand can only be met by primary production if demand for major metal rises accordingly Short term demand surges lead to price peaks Source: C. Hagelüken, C.E.M. Meskers: Complex lifecycles of precious and special metals in Linkages of Sustainability. Strüngmann Forum Report vol. 4. T. Graedel, E. van der Voet (eds.) Cambridge, MA, MIT Press

17 Metal scarcity issues Paradox of smarter growth for technology metals The EU resources strategy based on smarter growth Decoupling growth from impact on environment Emphasis on Reduce Reuse Recycle Restrictions for toxic materials (e.g. Pb, Ni) Decoupling most feasible for base metals, used in infrastructure (e.g. Cu, Ni, Al, Pb) Leads to relatively less primary supply of structurally linked technology metals Creates paradox: Source: GDP Negative impact 25 years Resource demand Next steps for EU waste and resource Policies, R. v.d.vlies, DG Env., Brussels, 2009 Smarter growth, requiring relatively more technology metals, leads to relative primary supply decrease for these RECYCLING of technology metals offers a solution 17

18 Metal scarcity issues Recognized by authorities: the EU Raw Materials Initiative Reduce Reuse Recycle H hydrogen He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium Technology metals EU critical metals (Raw Materials Initiative) 18

19 Urban mining potential

20 Urban mining potential The materials loop Reduce consumption Parts & product mfg. Mining & refining End use Reduce waste Avoid dissipation Materials flow Waste flow Recycling flow Recycling Improve collection Improve recycling efficiency Collection & dismantling 20

21 Urban mining potential Deposits can be much richer than primary mining ores Primary mining ~5 g/t Au in ore Similar for PGMs Urban mining g/t Au in PC circuit boards g/t Au in cell phones 2000 g/t PGM in automotive catalysts 21

22 Urban mining potential Low loadings/unit but volume counts, e.g. in electronics Global sales, 2009 a) Mobile phones 1300 M units/ year X250 mg Ag 325 t Ag X24mgAu 31 t Au X 9 mg Pd 12 t Pd X 9 g Cu 12,000 t Cu 1300 M Li-Ion batteries X 3.8 g Co 4900 t Co b) PCs & laptops 300 M units/year X1000 mg Ag X 220 mg Au 300 t Ag 66 t Au X 80 mg Pd 24 t Pd X~500 g Cu 150,000 t Cu ~140 M Li-ion batteries X 65 g Co 9100 t Co a+b) Urban mine Versus primary production = 625 t Ag 3% = 97 t Au 4% = 36 t Pd 16% = 162,000 t Cu 1% = 75,000 t Co 19% Tiny metal content per piece Significant total demand Other electronic devices add even more to these figures 22

23 Urban mining Low loadings/unit but volume counts, e.g. in cars Large total volumes Global sales in 2010 of ~70 million cars Current car fleet of some1.3 billion Demand for technology metals rises in modern vehicles Car electronics EV/HEV etc. Metal demand in automotive in 1000 t/a Share* of primary production steel 100, % Al % Pb** % Cu % Ni % Pt*** % Pd*** 0.14 > 60 % Rh*** % 2008 data (rounded) * >100% additional supply from recycling ** Pb use in batteries (mainly automotive) *** Pt, Pd, Rh mainly in autocatalysts 23

24 Urban mining potential Offers significant environmental and ethical advantages Urban mining prevents impact from non-recycling, such as hazardous emissions and use on land Recycling mitigates environmental impacts of mining Less land & water use, less pressure on ecosystem Lower energy consumption and lower CO 2 footprint for majority of metals Umicore Hoboken produces 70,000 t metals/year emitting theoretically ~1M t CO 2 less than primary metal production Recycling also offers ethical sourcing possibilities Supply chain transparency can be increased tonne CO 2 / tonne primary metal 10, Pt In Cu Au Pd Sn Ru Ag Co Source:Ecoinvent 2.0, EMPA/ETH- Zürich,

25 Umicore s involvement Umicore flagship recycling plant in Hoboken, Belgium

26 Umicore s involvement Key growth axes aligned with global megatrends Resource scarcity Market position Umicore is the largest recycler of precious metals, able to recycle up to 20 different metals Growth opportunity Expand recycling through UHT technology More stringent emission control Market position Umicore provides catalysts for 1 out of 3 cars in the world, with smaller position for trucks & non-road vehicles Growth opportunity Expand autocat activity into new segments Renewable energy Market position Umicore supplies key innovative materials for high-efficiency solar cells and other photovoltaic applications Growth opportunity Develop Umicore s presence in PV materials Electrification of the automobile Market position Umicore is a leading producer of key materials for rechargeable batteries for portable electronics Growth opportunity Expand battery materials activity into (H)EVs 26

27 Umicore s involvement Exposed to global markets Turnover by destination Asia Pacific 17% Africa 5% South America 7% North America 8% Europe 63% 64 production sites + 34 other sites/offices 14,386 employees worldwide, of which 4,828 in associated companies Direct customer exposure mostly to Europe End-user market exposure worldwide 27

28 Umicore s involvement Business model based on efficient use of resources (Precious) metals price passed through to customer Reducing metal content, while improving product performance, creates win-win Application know-how Focus on Total value recovered Recycling cost Metals Chemistry material Material science solutions Metallurgy Material solutions End product performance Material cost Focus on Recycling Recycling (own) production scrap and end-of-life materials allows to close the loop, thereby aiming to minimize environmental impact 28

29 Umicore s involvement Recycling end-of-life and materials secondary materials Parts & product mfg. Mining & refining End use Materials flow Waste flow Recycling flow Recycling Collection & dismantling 29

30 Umicore s involvement Recovery of critical technology metals Zn refiners H hydrogen Industrial residues Electronic scrap, rechargeable batteries & other Automotive & process catalysts He helium Li lithium Be beryllium B C N O F boron carbon nitrogen oxygen fluorine Ne neon Na sodium Mg magnesium Al Si P S Cl aluminium silicon phosphorus sulphur chlorine Ar argon K potassium Ca calcium Sc scandium Ti titanium V vanadium Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br chromium manganese iron cobalt nickel copper zinc gallium germanium arsenic selenium bromine Kr krypton Rb rubidium Cs caesium Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I strontium yttrium zirconium niobium molybdenum technetium ruthenium rhodium palladium silver cadmium indium tin antimony tellurium iodine Ba La-Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At barium lanthanides hafnium tantalum tungsten rhenium osmium iridium platinum gold mercury thallium lead bismuth polonium astatine Xe xenon Rn radon Fr francium Ra Ac-Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Uun Uuu radium actinides rutherfordium dubnium seaborgium bohrium hassium meitnerium ununnilum unununium Uub ununbium Uuq ununquadium Technology metals EU critical metals (Raw Materials Initiative) Umicore s recycled metals (partially recycled) 30

31 Umicore s involvement Capacity to grow Materials technology company focused on Cleantech applications Growth takes environmental, social and stakeholder aspects into account Key figures (in million ) Turnover 9, , ,691.1 Revenues 2, , ,999.7 REBIT R&D Capex ROCE 17.8% 8.1% 17.5% Growth based on Cleantech 60% of revenues already in Cleantech 85% of R&D focused on Cleantech Targets set for period Organic revenue growth potential of 10%+ on average Goal to generate average ROCE of 15%+ Means to finance growth available Gearing ratio (ND/ND+E) <20% Net debt / EDITDA < 1 31

32 Conclusions Increasing need for metals, especially technology metals Metal scarcity issues, especially for technology metals Urban mining offers a solution and has potential Umicore s product/service exposure and its business model well aligned with these issues

33 Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking information that involves risks and uncertainties, including statements about Umicore s plans, objectives, expectations and intentions. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements include known and unknown risks and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of Umicore. Should one or more of these risks, uncertainties or contingencies materialize, or should any underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated, expected, estimated or projected. As a result, neither Umicore nor any other person assumes any responsibility for the accuracy of these forward-looking statements. 33