Rare Metals & Rare Earth : The Next Oil

Transcription

1 Rare Metals & Rare Earth : The Next Oil European Nanoelectronics Consortium for Sustainability (ENCOS) Guillaume Pitron April 24,

2 Agenda Rare Metals & Rare Earth: Which Definitions? A Myriad of High-Tech Applications China, Rare Metals & Economic War States Strategies Towards Mineral Independance Manufacturers Strategies to Limit Supply Tensions Q&A 2

3 Rare Metals and Rare Earth: Which Definitions? Geological Scarcity - Byproducts of base metals - Neodymium//iron ratio : 1/ Gallium/iron ratio : 1/2 650 Industrial Scarcity An Ecosystem under : - Ecological tension (1 t. REE = 200 m³ water) - Industrial tension (mine opening : 20 years) - Social tension (with surrounding populations) The problem is less the demand than the supply. Strategic Metals - Metals used in strategic industries - Originally, military industries - Move towards economic factors Critical Metals - Scarcity risks - EU : 23 «CRM» in 2017 (14 in 2011, 20 in 2014) - USGS : 23 «Critical Minerals» (Dec. 2017) 3

4 Rare Metals and Rare Earth: Which Definitions? 27 Critical Raw Materials (2017) Antimony Fluorspar LREEs Phosphorus Baryte Gallium Magnesium Scandium Tungsten Beryllium Tantalum Vanadium Germanium Natural graphite Silicon metal Bismuth Hafnium Natural rubber Borate Helium Niobium Cobalt HREEs PGMs Coking coal Indium Phosphate rock Source : European Commission 4

5 A Myriad of High-Tech Applications Greentech - Drivers : electric mobility, energy storage permanent magnets, catalysis. - NdFeB Magnets : 8,15 Billion USD Market in 2013/ 12,7 Billion USD in 2019 => CAGR: 8,9 %. Needs Will Explode as of Drivers : population growth, new consumption trends - REEs : + 13,67 % growth/year btw & Consumption btw 2013 and 2035 : germanium (X2), dysprosium (X4), scandium (X9), cobalt (X24), lithium (X180) Digital - Indium (Chips, LCD Screens ) - Germanium (Optical Fibers) - Cobalt (batteries) - Neodymium (permanent magnets) - Digital Economy : 320 tons of gold/year, tons of silver/year & 22 % of world consumption of mercury - New Information and Communication Technologies: 10% of world electricity consumption 5

6 A Myriad of High-Tech Applications Share of CRMs used in the electric and electronic sector Source: JRC elaboration based on data from the 2017 EU criticality assessment (Deloitte Sustainability et al., 2017) and other references. 6

7 A Myriad of High-Tech Applications The Most Critical Metals in the Future Source : German Mineral Resources Agency 7

8 China, Rare Metals & Economic War Countries World Production of Rare Metals Source : European Commission 8

9 China, Rare Metals & Economic War China, Rare Metals' New Master - Near monopole over the production of : REEs (95%), antimony (87 %), tungsten (84%), scandium (66%), magnesium (87%) - Deng Xiaoping : The Middle East has oil, China has rare earth (1992) Taxes, Quotas & Embargos - Export Taxes : 20 % on graphite - REEs Quotas : t. (2005) / t. (2017) - REEs Embargo : 6 month from 09/2010 (Japan & USA) A Strategy of Moving up the Value Chain - Innovation : 7 strategic industries identified in the 12 th 5 year Plan ( ) : - China : 80 % of EV batteries production in

10 China, Rare Metals & Economic War Rare Earth Export Quotas ( ) tons/year Linear (tons/year)

11 States Strategies Towards Mineral Independance 2017: Presidential Order on the Relaunching of US Critical Metals Production 2 1,6 1,3 3,2 World Production of 0,2 7,9 Rare Earth Chine Etats-Unis Inde Russie 82,8 Thailande The Challenges of Rebuilding an Integrated REE Supply Chain How to Secure Rare Metals Abroad? GAO : 15 years to rebuild the REE supply chain in the defence sector China s Grab Over DRC s Cobalt - DRC : 64 % of world cobalt production - Chine has secured 80 % of DRC s cobalt via Glencore - Glencore : contract with GEM (2018) for supply of tons of cobalt between 2018 and

12 Manufacturers Strategies to Limit Supply Tensions Rebuilding an Entirely Integrated Supply Chain - «Just in time» & «Zero Stock» - Recent attempts by VW, BMW, SAMSUNG to integrate mining processes - Apple : 5 year contract for several thousands tons of cobalt? Limited Substitutes : Toyota develops magnets with % less neodymium - Nearly zero rare metals substitution In industry (source : EU Commission, 2017) Reverse Supply Chain Eiffel Tower of EW produced in the world in Challenges : unknown quantities of EW, lack of eco-design... Stammering Recycling Processes - 1/4 of Metals in EW are recycled - Less than 1 % of rare metals are recycled 12

13 Manufacturers Strategies to Limit Supply Risks Metals Recycling Rate (source : UN) 13

14 Bibliography Going Critical : Being Strategic with Our Mineral Resources, USGS, December 13, 2013 The development of the market for rare earth elements: Insights from economic theory, Dominik Schlinkert and Karl Gerald van den Boogaart Resources Policy, 2015, vol. 46, issue P2, COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS on the 2017 list of Critical Raw Materials for the EU, Brussels, September 13, 017 Recycling Rates of Metals : A Status Report, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2011 The Growing Role of Minerals and Metals for a Low Carbon Future, The World Bank Group, June 2017 Mark P. Mills, The Cloud Begins With Coal : Big Data, Big Networks, Big Infrastructure, and Big Power An Overview of the Electricity Used by the Global Digital Ecosystem, août 2013 How Clean is Your Cloud?, Greenpeace, April

15 Q & A 15