Aluminium castings the implications of strong growth in the coming decade. Shanker Gopalkrishnan Madras Consultancy Group Chennai, India

Transcription

1 Aluminium castings the implications of strong growth in the coming decade Shanker Gopalkrishnan Madras Consultancy Group Chennai, India

2 Disclaimer! This presentation is based on Metal Bulletin Research report titled The Global Aluminium castings to The data and information presented herein have been collated from various primary and secondary data sources by the author and Madras Consultancy Group (MCG). This presentation is intended to provide the audience a flavour of global aluminium castings sector and the author & MCG do not accept any legal liability of any kind. Prior to undertaking any business or investment decisions, further detailed investigations / studies are recommended. This presentation remains MCG s intellectual property and no part may be reproduced or circulated without the prior permission of Madras Consultancy Group, 2 nd Floor, MN Plaza, 15/16, Kasturba Nagar, Adyar, Chennai , India.

3 Aluminium castings account for 24% of the total global usage of primary and recycled aluminium.. Aluminium usage (2011): 53.5 Mn. tonnes Extrusions 28% Castings 24% FRP 34% Other 5% Wire Rods 9% Usage of aluminium castings was estimated at around 12.7 million tonnes in 2011, and is forecast to grow at around 5% per annum over the next 5 years Over 50% of the recycled aluminium produced across the world is used by the castings sector 3

4 000 tonnes China accounted for 32% of global production of castings and India is emerging as a key producer. Aluminium castings production: 13 Mn. tonnes Asia Pacific 54% Latin 7% Africa & North Middle East 1% 11% Western 19% Eastern 8% USA, Japan, Germany, and Italy continue to be key producers of aluminium castings With lower cost base and the need for machined castings, the shift to emerging economies is likely to accelerate Aluminium castings production in select countries, 2011 (000 tonnes) 6,000 4,110 4,000 2,000 1,280 1, China USA Japan Germany Italy India Mexico Source: Modern Castings 4

5 Mn tonnes Asia Pacific region now accounts for about 52% of the global usage. Western and North accounted for about 18% and 16% respectively Demand driven by the growth in the automobile sector (cars and LCVs), commercial vehicles and motorbikes Aluminium castings usage (2011) : 12.7 Mn. tonnes Asia Pacific 52% Middle East & Africa 1% Latin 7% North 16% Western 18% Eastern 6% 5

6 Mn. tonnes The use of recycled aluminium is on the upswing 20 Global recycled aluminium production (Mn. tonnes) Aluminium castings industry has the ability to use vast quantities of recycled aluminium Over 50% of the aluminium alloys produced by the global aluminium recycling industry is accounted for by the castings sector The significant advantage of using recycled aluminium lies in the reduction of carbon footprint across the entire supply chain, apart from measurable economic benefits, arising out of its lower cost

7 The end user sectors of aluminium castings Transportation sector Passenger cars & LCVs Commercial vehicles Motor bikes Aerospace Railways Shipbuilding Other sectors Industrial ABC sector Others (kitchen apps., furniture, etc.) 7

8 Transportation continues to be the main user segment.. Aluminium castings usage (2011): 12.7 Mn. tonnes Industrial 12% ABC 6% Others 7% Passenger cars & LCVs account for about 56% of the total usage Transport 75% Usage in transportation sector (2011) 9.5 Mn. tonnes % 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Cars & LCVs Other transport 8

9 Kg /vehicle Aluminium content in passenger cars & LCVs is growing Aluminium content in cars & LCVs ( ) Japan North Source: The Aluminum Association, USA Average aluminium content in North n vehicles is forecast to reach 200 to 250 kg over the next 10 to 15 years; similar trends are expected in other countries 9

10 Aluminium castings content in passenger cars & LCVs Vehicles that are manufactured in North contain a higher quantum aluminium castings than in other regions Cast aluminium engine blocks have gradually replaced the cast iron engine blocks in most of the countries Usage of aluminium castings in space frames, chassis and other structural components has been increasing over the years Kg / vehicle (2009) Applications North an Union Japan Engine, gear box / transmission, wheels, brake, body work, cockpit Aluminium castings Others aluminium products Source: The Aluminum Association, USA 10

11 Aluminium castings usage in automobiles across region Aluminium castings usage in cars & LCVs (2011): 7.2 Mn. tonnes Asia Pacific 44% Others 2% North 19% Latin 8% Eastern 7% Western 20% The demand for aluminium castings from automobiles sector was estimated at 7.2 million tonnes in 2011 Asia Pacific region is the major user of aluminium castings and accounted for 44% of the usage followed by Western at 20% 11

12 Mn. Nos. Passenger cars & LCVs production Passenger cars & LCVs production, Mn. Nos North South Western Eastern Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa Source: The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Mfrers. (OICA) Global production of cars & LCVs forecast to reach 95 Mn. units by 2016.seems a bit optimistic in the current global scenario!

13 000 units Aluminium castings in commercial vehicles & motorbikes Heavy commercial vehicles Global commercial vehicle production reached more than 4.5 million tonnes in ,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Heavy commercial vehicle production, Mn. Nos. Commercial vehicles used an estimated 664,000 tonnes of aluminium castings Source: OICA Motorbikes Global motor bikes production Mn. units Aluminium castings usage million tonnes Commercial vehicles Motor bikes Applications Suspension parts, structural components-hinges-supports, complex shapes with medium strength, very complex shapes without structural function Engine block, crankcase, fixtures & external frames (that support the body of the vehicle) 13

14 Aluminium castings in industrial applications Aluminium castings usage (2011): 1.57 Mn. tonnes Asia Pacific 53% Africa & Middle East 1% North 16% Latin 6% Western 19% Applications Machine tools, agricultural implements, electrical and electronics, electric motor housing, gear box housing, HVAC systems, electric fans,. Eastern 5% Asia Pacific region accounted for the bulk of aluminium castings usage in industrial applications in 2011 Western and North were the other regions with significant usage of castings in the industrial sector

15 Aluminium castings in ABC sector Aluminium castings usage (2011): 803,000 tonnes Asia Pacific 60% Africa & Middle East 2% North 11% Latin 6% Western 16% Eastern 5% Aluminium castings find applications in the fabrication of gates, grills, fences, balustrades, etc. Cast aluminium parts are used in the fabrication of builders hardware such as door fittings (handle, knob, knocker, latch & stopper), cabinet fittings and window fittings

16 Mn. tonnes The market for aluminium castings is forecast to reach 20 Mn. tonnes by Cars & LCV Others Aluminium castings usage in transportation sector to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% for the next 10 years

17 Madras Consultancy Group 2 nd Floor, MN Plaza 15/16, 3 rd Cross Street Kasturba Nagar, Adyar Chennai , India Mail : shanker@mcg.in Web : Thank you