Crop Outlook: Now What?! Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377 NDSU Extension Service ND Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics STUDENT FOCUSED LAND GRANT RESEARCH UNIVERSITY
All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2012/2013 2013/2014 (est.) 2014/2015 (Feb) Planted A. 55.3 Mill. A. 56.2 Mill. A. 56.8 Mill. A. Harvested A. 48.8 Mill. A. 45.3 Mill. A. 46.4 Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A. 46.2 bu. 47.1 bu. 43.7 bu. Begin Stocks 743 Mill. Bu. 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. Production 2,252 Mill. Bu. 2,135 Mill. Bu. 2,026 Mill. Bu. Imports 123 Mill. Bu. 169 Mill. Bu. 160 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 3,118 Mill. Bu. 3,021 Mill. Bu. 2,776 Mill. Bu. Food 945 Mill. Bu. 952 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu. Seed 73 Mill. Bu. 77 Mill. Bu. 74 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 370 Mill. Bu. 226 Mill. Bu. 150 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,012 Mill. Bu. 1,176 Mill. Bu. 900 Mill. Bu. Total Use 2,400 Mill. Bu. 2,431 Mill. Bu. 2,084 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. 692 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE February 10, 2015
All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2012/2013 2013/2014 (est.) 2014/2015 (Feb) Planted A. 55.3 Mill. A. 56.2 Mill. A. 56.8 Mill. A. Harvested A. 48.8 Mill. A. 45.3 Mill. A. 46.4 Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A. 46.2 bu. 47.1 bu. 43.7 bu. Begin Stocks 743 Mill. Bu. 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. Production 2,252 Mill. Bu. 2,135 Mill. Bu. 2,026 Mill. Bu. Imports 123 Mill. Bu. 169 Mill. Bu. 160 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 3,118 Mill. Bu. 3,021 Mill. Bu. 2,776 Mill. Bu. Food 945 Mill. Bu. 952 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu. Seed 73 Mill. Bu. 77 Mill. Bu. 74 Mill. Bu. Total Production is down 5.1% from last year. Feed & Residual 370 Mill. Bu. 226 Mill. Bu. 150 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,012 Mill. Bu. 1,176 Mill. Bu. 900 Mill. Bu. Total Use 2,400 Mill. Bu. 2,431 Mill. Bu. 2,084 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. 692 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE February 10, 2015
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 U.S. All Wheat Disappearance (Million Bushels) Food Exports Feed & Residual Seed USDA WASDE Feb. 10, 2015 & USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 5 Million Bushels
All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2012/2013 2013/2014 (est.) 2014/2015 (Feb) Food use changes with U.S. population growth and flour extraction rates. Planted A. 55.3 Mill. A. 56.2 Mill. A. 56.8 Mill. A. Harvested A. 48.8 Mill. A. 45.3 Mill. A. 46.4 Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A. 46.2 bu. 47.1 bu. 43.7 bu. Begin Stocks 743 Mill. Bu. 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. Production 2,252 Mill. Bu. 2,135 Mill. Bu. 2,026 Mill. Bu. Imports 123 Mill. Bu. 169 Mill. Bu. 160 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 3,118 Mill. Bu. 3,021 Mill. Bu. 2,776 Mill. Bu. Food 945 Mill. Bu. 952 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu. Seed 73 Mill. Bu. 77 Mill. Bu. 74 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 370 Mill. Bu. 226 Mill. Bu. 150 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,012 Mill. Bu. 1,176 Mill. Bu. 900 Mill. Bu. Total Use 2,400 Mill. Bu. 2,431 Mill. Bu. 2,084 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. 692 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE February 10, 2015
All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2012/2013 2013/2014 (est.) 2014/2015 (Feb) Planted A. 55.3 Mill. A. 56.2 Mill. A. 56.8 Mill. A. Harvested A. 48.8 Mill. A. 45.3 Mill. A. 46.4 Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A. 46.2 bu. 47.1 bu. 43.7 bu. Exports are critical for strong U.S. wheat prices. Begin Stocks 743 Mill. Bu. 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. Production 2,252 Mill. Bu. 2,135 Mill. Bu. 2,026 Mill. Bu. 23.5% decrease from last year. Imports 123 Mill. Bu. 169 Mill. Bu. 160 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 3,118 Mill. Bu. 3,021 Mill. Bu. 2,776 Mill. Bu. Food 945 Mill. Bu. 952 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu. Seed 73 Mill. Bu. 77 Mill. Bu. 74 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 370 Mill. Bu. 226 Mill. Bu. 150 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,012 Mill. Bu. 1,176 Mill. Bu. 900 Mill. Bu. Total Use 2,400 Mill. Bu. 2,431 Mill. Bu. 2,084 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. 692 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE February 10, 2015
All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2012/2013 2013/2014 (est.) 2014/2015 (Feb) Planted A. 55.3 Mill. A. 56.2 Mill. A. 56.8 Mill. A. Harvested A. 48.8 Mill. A. 45.3 Mill. A. 46.4 Mill. A. Forecast for lower Exports is due to strong world wheat production and price competition from corn for feeding. Yield/Harvest A. 46.2 bu. 47.1 bu. 43.7 bu. Begin Stocks 743 Mill. Bu. 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. Production 2,252 Mill. Bu. 2,135 Mill. Bu. 2,026 Mill. Bu. Imports 123 Mill. Bu. 169 Mill. Bu. 160 Mill. Bu. Total Supply 3,118 Mill. Bu. 3,021 Mill. Bu. 2,776 Mill. Bu. Food 945 Mill. Bu. 952 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu. Seed 73 Mill. Bu. 77 Mill. Bu. 74 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 370 Mill. Bu. 226 Mill. Bu. 150 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,012 Mill. Bu. 1,176 Mill. Bu. 900 Mill. Bu. Total Use 2,400 Mill. Bu. 2,431 Mill. Bu. 2,084 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. 692 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE February 10, 2015
U.S. Dollar Index DTN Prophet X 02 13 15 am
U.S. Dollar Index DTN Prophet X 02 13 15 am
Production by Major Export Competitor 2010 11 to 2014 15 180.00 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 160.00 140.00 Million Metric Tons 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 USDA WASDE February 10, 2015 & PSD Custom Query
Million Metric Tons Exports by Major Export Competitor 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 2010 11 to 2014 15 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 USDA WASDE February 10, 2015 & PSD Custom Query
Top 5+ All Wheat Export Destinations 1,000 Metric Tons Will these sales be repeated in 2014/15? 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (1,000 Metric Ton) Japan Nigeria Mexico Philippines Egypt China Brazil U.S. Wheat Associates Commercial Sales Reports (07/10/14)
All Wheat Supply & Demand Table U.S. All Wheat 2012/2013 2013/2014 (est.) 2014/2015 (Feb) Planted A. 55.3 Mill. A. 56.2 Mill. A. 56.8 Mill. A. Harvested A. 48.8 Mill. A. 45.3 Mill. A. 46.4 Mill. A. Yield/Harvest A. 46.2 bu. 47.1 bu. 43.7 bu. Begin Stocks 743 Mill. Bu. 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. Production 2,252 Mill. Bu. 2,135 Mill. Bu. 2,026 Mill. Bu. Imports 123 Mill. Bu. 169 Mill. Bu. 160 Mill. Bu. Despite poor HRWW yields, Total Supply 3,118 Mill. Bu. 3,021 Mill. Bu. 2,776 Mill. Bu. U.S. wheat supplies are Food adequate and 945 Ending Mill. Bu. Stocks 952 Mill. Bu. 960 Mill. Bu. Seed are increasing. 73 Mill. Bu. 77 Mill. Bu. 74 Mill. Bu. Feed & Residual 370 Mill. Bu. 226 Mill. Bu. 150 Mill. Bu. Exports 1,012 Mill. Bu. 1,176 Mill. Bu. 900 Mill. Bu. Total Use 2,400 Mill. Bu. 2,431 Mill. Bu. 2,084 Mill. Bu. Ending Stocks 718 Mill. Bu. 590 Mill. Bu. 692 Mill. Bu. USDA WASDE February 10, 2015
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 U.S. All Wheat Total Prod. & Use (Billion Bushels) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Use 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Billion Bushels 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Stocks to Use Ratio February 10, 2015 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
750.0 700.0 650.0 World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use (Million Metric Ton) Stocks to Use Total Production Total Dom. Use 0.70 0.60 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 0.50 0.40 0.30 400.0 350.0 0.20 300.0 0.10 Million Metric Tons 1980/81 1982/83 1984/85 1986/87 1988/89 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 Stocks to Use Ratio USDA WASDE February 10, 2015 & PSD Custom Query
Wheat Market Comments Australian wheat production was below average, but not bad. Wheat quality is still unknown. U.S. HRWW region is in Moderate to Severe drought conditions, but recent snow storms have helped mitigate problems. Russian winter wheat condition is poor and the Russian economy is struggling. Russian export taxes have been implemented, but recent export pace has been aggressive.
Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates (Million Acres) Crop 2014 USDA Average Low High 2015 Est. Hard Red Winter 30.471 31.023 29.800 32.115 29.5 Soft Red Winter 8.498 8.039 7.432 8.739 7.50 White Winter 3.430 3.502 3.200 3.823 3.48 Total Winter 42.399 42.564 41.000 44.000 40.5
U.S. & Canadian All Wheat Prod. 3,000 (Million Bushels) 2,500 Million Bushels 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 U.S Production Canadian Production USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 5 and Statistics Canada Dec. Production Report
U.S. & Canadian Spring Wheat Prod. 1200 (Million Bushels) 1000 Million Bushels 800 600 400 200 0 U.S Production Canadian Production USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 8 and Statistics Canada Dec. Production Report
U.S. and Canadian Durum Production 300 (Million Bushels) 250 Million Bushels 200 150 100 50 0 U.S Production Canadian Production USDA Wheat Yearbook Table 11 and Statistics Canada Dec. Production Report
1550 1350 1150 950 750 550 350 Cash Durum Prices by Grade Cents per Bushel 04/07/11 05/12/11 06/16/11 07/21/11 08/25/11 09/29/11 11/03/11 12/08/11 01/12/12 02/16/12 03/22/12 04/26/12 05/31/12 07/05/12 08/09/12 09/13/12 10/18/12 11/22/12 12/27/12 01/31/13 03/07/13 04/11/13 05/16/13 6/20/2013 7/25/2013 8/29/2013 10/3/2013 11/7/2013 12/12/2013 1/16/2014 2/20/2014 3/27/2014 5/1/2014 6/5/2014 7/10/2014 8/14/2014 9/18/2014 10/23/2014 11/27/2014 1/1/2015 2/5/2015 Milling Durum Hard Amber Durum Amber Durum Ordinary Durum
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.000-0.500-1.000 Premium or Discount 2014/15-1.500-2.000-2.500 Daily Protein Spreads for Hard Red Spring Wheat - Portland OR June 1, 1999 - February 10, 2015 13% Discount (13% - 14%) 15% Premium (15% - 14%)
Discount for 13% Protein Hard Red Spring Wheat - Portland OR June 1, 2008 to February 10, 2015 0.000 June July August September October November December January February March April May -0.200-0.400-0.600-0.800-1.000-1.200 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15-1.400-1.600-1.800-2.000 Day in Marketing Year beginning on June 1
Premium for 15% Protein Hard Red Spring Wheat - Portland OR June 1, 2008 to February 10, 2015 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 0.200 0.000 June July August September October November December January February March April May Day in Marketing Year beginning on June 1
Data from USDA- AMS Graph prepared by Frayne Olson - NDSU 1.500 Daily Protein Spreads for Hard Red Spring Wheat - Minneapolis, MN June 1, 2002 February 9, 2015 1.000 Premium or Discount 0.500 0.000-0.500 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15-1.000-1.500 Date 13% Discount (13% - 14%) 15% Premium (15% - 14%)
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