Bioenergy in Asia An FAO Perspective Beau Damen

Bioenergy in Asia An FAO Perspective Beau Damen FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

What is bioenergy? Bioenergy is......all energy derived from biofuels, which are fuels derived from biomass. Primary Solid Biomass Biogas Liquid biofuels Municipal waste FAO definition

World bioenergy outlook Projected contribution of bioenergy to TPES by region, 2005-2030 70% North America Contribution to TPES 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% European Union (27) + 3 Australia, Japan, New Zealand East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Africa World 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Source: World Bank, 2010 Share of bioenergy to remain stable

Most common form of bioenergy Contribution of biomass to global primary and consumer energy supplies, 2007 Source: Best et al, 2008...is traditional burning of biomass

Changes in composition Outlook for bioenergy production by type, 2005-2030 1,800 Biodiesel 1,600 Primary energy supply in MTOE 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Ethanol Biogas Primary solid biomass (heat, power and own use) Primary solid biomass (traditional) Source: World Bank, 2010...expected in the future

Regional bioenergy outlook Projected annual consumption & production of bioenergy in Asia-Pacific (MToE), 2005-30 Energy type Consumption Production Primary solid biomass 2005 2010 2020 2030 2005 2010 2020 2030 556 546.7 524.1 484.2 556 546.7 524.1 484.2 Biogas 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 Ethanol 0.9 2 8.3 13.1 0.6 1.3 5.4 8.3 Biodiesel 0.1 4.1 19.3 29.3 0.1 4.1 18.7 24.8 Total bioenergy 560.5 556.4 555.4 530.5 560.2 555.7 551.9 521.2 TPES 3,232.5 3,831.6 5,031.6 6,168.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Bioenergy share of TPES Source: Author s, based on World Bank & FAO 2010 17.34% 14.52% 11.04% 8.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Use of bioenergy to decline

China 362 GW RE (incl. biomass) by 2020 15 billion litres of biofuel by 2020 Vietnam 5% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020 560 million litres of biofuel by 2020 India 15% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020 Ethanol mandates in certain states Indonesia 5% RE by 2025 5% biofuels by 2025 Thailand 20% RE (incl. biomass) by 2022 5 billion litres of biofuel by 2022 Philippines 267 MW biomass by 2030 10% ethanol by 2011 Modern bioenergy development will be driven by government policies

A question of trade-offs Development Agriculture Energy Environment Action to advance bioenergy can spill-over

Food security in Asia Undernourishment in 2010 by region (millions) Source: FAO, 2010 Region has poor access to sufficient nutrition

Will food security be affected? FAO food price index in real terms: 2005-2011 380 Thailand 330 280 Index 230 180 130 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Food Price Index Cereals Price Index Sugar Price Index Source: FAO World food prices at record highs

Bioenergy and food security FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

FAO and bioenergy On energy, FAO targets... 1. Food security and energy systems 2. 3. Better use of energy in agricultural & rural enterprises Optimization of natural resource use for sustainable energy production Organizational focus

Ongoing and future work Bioenergy and Food Security project FAO Bioenergy & Food Security Indicators (BEFSCI) Project GMS FAO GMS Technical Cooperation Project on Bioenergy & Renewable Energy for Rural Development Global Integrated Food & Energy Systems Program...at FAO Regional Office

FAO, Bioenergy & Food security FAO BEFS framework aims to: Provide an information platform Inform judgements, aid decisionmaking & guide action Strengthen relationships and & capacity Assess trade-offs associated with bioenergy

Natural Resources Endowments Bioenergy Investment Intervention Agriculture Agroindustry Sectors Agricultural Productivity Impacts Food Security: Access and Availability - Poverty Reduction - Wages and Employment - Prices - Rural Development (livelihoods) Outcomes: Areas of concern FAO s BEFS framework

Diagnostic Analysis -Agricultural Outlook Natural Resources Natural Resource Analysis -Land Assessment -Water Resource Management -Woody Biomass & Residues Bioenergy Investment Agriculture Agroindustry Agricultural Productivity Food Security: Access and Availability - Poverty Reduction - Wages and Employment - Prices -RuralDevelopment Techno-economic and Environmental Analysis -Production Costs -Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Socio-economic Analysis - Household Food Security - Economy-wide Impacts BEFS Analytical Tools

Where is BEFS relevant? Everywhere

BEFS HQ BEFS THAILAND BEFS PERU BEFS TANZANIA Bioenergy & Food Security Project Initial Target Countries

BEFS Thailand Key findings: Biofuel targets achievable but.. Substantial growth in productivity required Significant decline in exports of biofuel crops & rice expected Without productivity growth, area under biofuel crops will need to expand Changes in commodity prices could affect incidence of poverty further work and monitoring required

Bioenergy & Food Security Project Thailand Recommendations

Bioenergy food security and climate change FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Climate change Key Variables: Temperature rise Change in precipitation Extreme weather Sea level rise C02 Fertilization What is the impact on food security?

Climate change and food security FAO Framework Climate change variables Changes in food system assets Changes in food system activities Impact on food security Adaptive responses Temperature rise Temperature rise Change in Change in precipitation precipitation Frequency of Frequency of extreme events extreme events Sea level rise Sea level rise CO2 fertilization CO2 fertilization effects effects Food production Food production assets assets Infrastructure Infrastructure Agriculturallybased livelihoods Agriculturallybased livelihoods Non farm Non farm livelihoods assets livelihoods assets Food preparation Food preparation assets assets Producing food Producing food Storing and Storing and processing of food processing of food Distributing food Distributing food Consuming food Consuming food Migration & conflict Food availability Food availability Food accessibility Food accessibility Food utilization Food utilization Food system Food system stability stability Changes in consumption patterns

Climate change and food security FAO Framework Continued Changes in consumption patterns Changes in human health Shift in share of Shift in share of local food in diets local food in diets Increased Increased consumption of consumption of new food items new food items Reduced Reduced consumption of consumption of wild foods wild foods Reduced variety of Reduced variety of food consumed food consumed Shift in share of Shift in share of local food in diets local food in diets Increased Increased consumption of consumption of new food items new food items Reduced Reduced consumption of consumption of wild foods wild foods Reduced variety of Reduced variety of food consumed food consumed Nutritional status Drivers of climate change

FAO & Bioenergy In Asia FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Greater Mekong South Asia Indonesia Bioenergy & Food Security Asia and the Pacific

Conclusion Development Agriculture Energy Environment Bioenergy policies - a question of trade-offs

BEFS Website Find... Full technical and policy reports for each BEFS country Full description of BEFS Analytical Framework Description of activities in each country Information on each BEFS Partner Organization Links to BEFSCI reports and materials www.fao.org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs/

IFES Website Find... Full description of IFES systems Report on IFES systems in China and Vietnam Information on future FAO IFES activities http://www.fao.org/bioenergy/67564/en/

Contacts: FAO Bioenergy (Asia) Natural Resources & Environment Group Beau Damen beau.damen@fao.org Sverre Tvinnereim sverre.tvinnereim@fao.org Agriculture & Food Systems Group Delgermaa Chuluunbataar delgermaa.chuluunbataar@fao.org www.fao.org/world/regional/rap/en/

Thank you FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific