Planning for New Hampshire's Changing Climate: Blending Climate Change Solutions with Economic Development for a Sustainable Future Cameron Wake Carbon Solutions New England Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) University of New Hampshire Sustainable New England NNECAPA 2010 7 Oct 2010 Portsmouth, NH
1000 800 600 400 200 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Business as Usual Clean Energy & Efficiency Vostok Ice Core Current 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Years Before 2100 AD IPCC 2007 carbon dioxide (ppmv)
Arctic Sea Ice: Sept 1980 vs Sept 2007 University of Illinois - The Cryosphere Today http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1895-2005 32 30 28 26 24 Temperature ( o F) 22 20 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR
Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1965-2005 Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR
Trends in One Inch Precipitation Events 1948-2007 Change over 5 decades (events) Increase Decrease 0.0 to 2.5 2.5 to 5.0 5.0 to 10 7.5 to 10 statistically significant (p<0.1) 0.0 to 2.5 2.5 to 5.0 Spierre and Wake, 2009
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Daily Discharge for Lamprey River near Newmarket, NH July 1934 - July 2010 5/15-16 2006 FIS 100 year flood (7300 cfs) 4/7 1987 4/17-18 2007 3/15-17 2010 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year discharge (cubic feet per second)
Relative Sea Level Rise 1856-2005 20 15 10 5 Saco. Maine 17 Apr 2007 Boston New York Relative Sea Level Rise (inches) SW Shore, Nantucket, 18 Apr 2007 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Data from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/
Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Collaboration between Union of Concerned Scientists and 50 independent scientists Geographic Scope Nine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania www.climatechoices.org Peer Review Climate Dynamics, 2007 14 papers in Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change, 2008
Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Rising Annual Temperatures observations higher emissions lower emissions Higher: 6.5-12.5 o F Lower: 3.5-6.5 o F 2 o F warming since 1970
Summer heat index: How hot summers will feel in New Hampshire Days per year over 90 o F
Increasing winter precipitation OBS Higher emissions Lower emissions As temperatures rise, more falling as rain, less as snow
Extreme Precipitation Events Increase Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast Under both emissions scenarios -rainfall is expected to become more intense -periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent Bridge over Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NH May 2006. credit: Associated Press
Drought 1-3 months 3-6 months >6 months credit: Associated Press
Vulnerability of Ski Resorts to Climate Change Higher Emissions
Changes in Habitat Suitability for Different Forest Types by Late-Century AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty Julie Hart
Late-Century Range of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid
Impacts on Agriculture: Dairy
Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Traditional Fruit Crops May Suffer in a Warmer Climate
Boston: The 100-Year Coastal Flood in 2100 (Higher-Emissions Scenario; 16 inches of SLR) credit: Associated Press
Portland, ME: The 100-Year Coastal Flood in 2100 (Higher-Emissions Scenario; 4.6 ft of SLR) Climate Change in the Casco Bay Watershed: www.cascobay.usm.maine.edu/
NH Climate Action Plan One of the largest, most diverse collections of leading NH citizens Promotes growth of new jobs and renewable energy development Reduces energy costs Identifies 67 recommended actions buildings electricity generation, transportation & land use natural resources government action adaptation Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 44% below 2005 levels by 2025 86% below 2005 levels by 2050 More info at: http://carbonsolutionsne.org
Sustain the unique quality of life in NH Avoid the significant costs of responding to a changing climate Create jobs through development of in-state sources of energy Spur economic growth and reduce $$$ spent on energy through energy efficiency THE OPPORTUNITY NH Climate Action Plan
Overarching Strategies to Achieve Goals 1. Maximize energy efficiency in buildings & transportation 2. Increase renewable & low-emitting heat & electric power sources 3. Protect our natural resources to enhance the amount of carbon sequestration 4. Develop an integrated education, outreach and workforce training program 5. Develop plans to adapt to existing and potential climate change
New Hampshire Climate Action Plan (March 2009)
New Hampshire Economic Benefits vs Avoided CO2e Emissions in 2025 $1,600 $1,200 $800 Buildings Electricity Generation Transportation Natural Resources CAFE 2009 Existing residential 60% less energy use Existing commercial 50% less energy use Fuel efficiency feebate $400 $0 VMT based registration fees Lower highway speeds Heavy duty fuel efficiency Avoid forest land conversion Integrated forestry and wood plan use New construction Net-zero energy Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Promote durable wood products 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Avoided Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMTCO2e) Econoimc Benefits (Savings - Costs) Million $
New Hampshire Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2050 50 40 30 20 10 2004 NH GHG Emissions (from EIA) NH 'Business as Usual' GHG Emissions (From NH Climate Action Plan) NH Climate Action Plan Target GHG Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMTCO2e) 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
NH GSP (Billion $2009) NH GHG Emissions vs Gross State Product 1997-2008 24 70 22 NH GHG Emissions 65 60 20 55 18 50 16 NH Gross State Product 45 14 40 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Greehouse Gas Emissions (MMTCO2e)
The Sustainable Learning Community: One University s Journey to the Future John Aber, Tom Kelly, Bruce Mallory (Eds). University Press of New England www.upne.com