Energy [R]evolution for India Delhi 5 th December 28 THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO USES ONLY 1.3% OF THE KNOWN AVAILABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES OF DEVELOPED ECONOMIES BY 22 - THIS ALONE WILL PROVIDE 21% OF GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS (BY 22).
Climate policy targets Stabilize global CO 2 -concentration under 4 ppm Global CO2 emission peak by 215 Reduction of global energy related CO 2 -emissions from today's 29 Gt/a to approx. 1 G t/a in 25 World OECD EU-27 China India Africa 5 1 15 t CO 2 /(capita, year)
Energy Policy targets: Rapid fossil fuel phase-out Only proven technology will be used Achieve global climate target with a parallel nuclear phase-out Equity and fairness, sustainable economic growth
Development of different scenarios Projections of technical and socio-economic developments Forecasting future world langfristiges Zieljahr Need actions and investmnets Backcasting Defined targets 2 21 22 23 24 25
The logic of the energy [r]evolution scenario From principles to practice - Use the current time window for Step 1: Energy Efficiency Step 2: Structural Changes Decentralised energy and large scale renewables Cogeneration Step 3: Energy Efficient Transport Efficient Public Transport Systems Efficient Cars, Trucks etc. Sustainable biofuels Scenario principles in a nutshell Smart consumption, generation and distribution Energy production moves closer to the consumer Maximum use of locally available, environmentally friendly fuels
RES capacity energy demand Nuclear Phase out Coal Phase out time
the energy [r]evolution: the global context The Energy [R]evolution: More energy equity for developing countries
Key driver for growing energy demand A) India's population steady growth until 25 16 14 Million people 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25
Key driver for growing energy demand B) India GDP growth between 25 and 23: + 1 % average 5. 45. 4. 35. $ 25 /capita 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5. 2 21 22 23 24 25
Key driver for growing energy demand C) India's Energy intensity: technical potential for energy efficiency largely exploited 4 3,5 MJ/$ 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
Cost development of renewable electricity generation 4 35 ct/kwh 3 25 2 15 1 PV Wind Biomass CHP Concentrating solar thermal 5 2 21 22 23 24 25
Fossil Fuels costs (Imports) 25 21 22 23 24 25 Oil ($ 25 /barrel) 52,5 1 11 12 13 14 Erdgas ($ 25 /GJ) 5,8 1 13,3 17,2 2,6 23 Steinkohle ($ 25 /t) 76,8 143 194 251 311 359
the energy [r]evolution: demand development The Energy [R]evolution scenario saves over 2 Exa-Joule by 25 Most important mesasures: Building insulation Strict efficiency standards for all electrical applications, Strict efficiency standards for all vehicles. Reference Scenario Energy Revolution Scenario 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PJ/a 5. PJ/a 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 25 21 22 23 24 25 Transport Other Sectors Industry 25 21 22 23 24 25 Transport Other Sectors Industry
the energy [r]evolution: shift towards renewables Renewable Primary energy shares: 25: 31 %, 22: 27 %, 23: 32%, 25: 54% 12 12 PJ/a 1 8 6 4 2 PJ/a 1 8 6 4 2 Efficiency Ocean energy Geothermal Solar Biomass Wind Hydro Natural gas Crude oil Coal Nuclear 25 21 22 23 24 25 25 21 22 23 24 25
the energy [r]evolution: a transport [r]evolution Needed changes in the transport sector: Renewable Share in 22: 5 % 25: 28.8% More efficiency in ALL technologies within the transport sector Shift from road to rail and from aviation to ships Strict efficiency standards for cars Phase-in of electrical drives 2. 2. 18. 16. 18. 16. Efficiency PJ/a 14. PJ/a 14. Hydrogen 12. 12. Electricity 1. 8. 1. 8. Biofuels 6. 6. Natural gas 4. 4. Oil products 2. 2. 25 21 22 23 24 25 25 21 22 23 24 25
the energy [r]evolution: demand development 3. The heating sector: Heating/Cooling Demand: - 45 PJ/a by 25 (25: 882 PJ/a) Production: 56% RE by 22 and 7% by 25 (25: 63.4%) 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5. 'Efficiency' Geothermal Solar Biomass Fossil fuels PJ/a 25. 2. 15. 1. 'Efficiency' Industry Other Sectors 3. 25. 25 21 22 23 24 25 5. 25 21 22 23 24 25 2. 15. 1. Geothermal Solar Biomass Fossil fuels 5. 25 21 22 23 24 25
the energy [r]evolution: Power Sector Power Sector Demand: - 18 TWh by 22; - 35 TWh by 23; - 4669 TWh by 25 Generation: 24.6 % RE by 22, 34.6% by 23 and 69 % RE by 25 TWh/a 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. TWh/a 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Efficiency Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass Gas&oil Coal Nuclear 25 21 22 23 24 25 25 21 22 23 24 25
the energy [r]evolution: Power Sector - Renewables 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 8 6 4 Ocean energy Solarthermal PV Geothermal Wind Biomass Hydro 2 25 21 22 23 24 25
keeping energy affordable Electricity supply costs Today: $ 65 billion Reference 22: $279 billion 23: $ 516 billion 1.2 1. 8 Energy [R]evolution 22: $ 238 billion $ 6 billion (efficiency) 6 4 2 23: 395 billion 16 billion (efficiency) Energy Revolution - efficiency measures Energy Revolution - electricity generation Reference - electricity generation
keeping energy affordable Specific Electricity supply costs Break even: 21 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 21 22 23 24 25 Energy [R]evolution Reference
the energy [r]evolution: CO 2 emissions Energy related CO2 emissions reductions based on 199 levels: Emission peak in 23 8 7 Mill t/a 6 5 4 3 2 1 Savings from efficiency and renewables Transport Other sectors Industry Public electricity and CHP 25 21 22 23 24 25
Investments in Renewable Energy until 22: $ 238 billion Change in cummulative power plant investments in India - energy [r]evolutiuon scenario Nuclear Fossil Renewables Cogeneration 3 25 2 15 billion $ 1 5-5 -1-15 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23
Change in cumulative power plant investment under the Energy [R]evolution scenario - Share of investments reference - investment in power sector India - 25-23 Energy [R]evolution scenario - investment in India s power sector - 25-23 Total Cogeneration 4% Total Nuclear 5% Total Cogeneration 8% Total Fossil 31% Total Renewables 4% Total: 728 billion Total: 882 billion Total Fossil 51% Total Renewables 61%
Saved Fuel Costs versus additional Investments Reference Scenario 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23 25-23 average per year Investment cost Euro Total Nuclear billion $ REF 3 18 18 39 2 Total Fossil billion $ REF 55 14 176 371 15 Total Renewables billion $ REF 45 17 136 288 12 Total Cogeneration billion $ REF 3 12 15 3 1 Total billion $ REF 17 276 345 728 29 Alternative Scenario 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23 25-23 average per year Investment cost Euro Total Fossil billion $ E[R] 58 17 111 276 11 Total Renewables billion $ E[R] 46 192 294 531 21 Total Cogeneration billion $ REF 3 23 49 74 3 Total billion $ E[R] 17 321 454 882 35 Chapter 8, Table 2 annual average Difference E(R) VERSUS REF 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23 25-23 Investment cost Euro DIF Total Fossil & Nuclear billion $ DIF -5-83 -133-5 Total Renewables billion $ DIF 85 158 243 1 Total Cogeneration billion $ DIF 11 33 44 2 Total billion $ DIF 45 19 154 6
Saved Fuel Costs versus additional Investments Average annual Fuel Costs REF in billion $ billion $/a 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23 25-23 Total Fuel Oil billion $/a 26 62 65 153 6 Total Gas billion $/a 33 164 383 58 23 Total Coal billion $/a 699 2.463 4.697 7.859 314 Total Lignite billion $/a 2 6 1 18 1 Total Fossil Fuels billion $/a 761 2.695 5.154 8.61 344 Average annual Fossil Fuel Costs E[R] in billion billion $ $/a 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23 25-23 Total Fuel Oil billion $/a 26 4 12 79 3 Total Gas billion $/a 33 156 485 675 27 Total Coal billion $/a 7 2.181 2.8 5.68 227 Total Lignite billion $/a 2 3 2 7 Total Fossil Fuels billion $/a 761 2.38 3.299 6.44 258 Average annual Savings Fuel Costs REF VERSUS billion E[R] $/a in billion $ 25-21 211-22 221-23 25-23 25-23 fuel oil billion $/a 22 52 74 3 gas billion $/a 8-12 -94-4 hard coal billion $/a 282 1.897 2.179 87 lignite billion $/a 3 8 11 Total Fossil Fuel Savings billion $/a 315 1.855 2.17 87
Saved Fuel Costs versus additional Investments 25 22: Saved fuel costs are 7 x higher than additional investments costs Factor 7
Energy [R]evolution for the EU-27 Brussels 2 December 28