Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger: towards a coherent policy agenda Prabhu Pingali Director Agricultural and Development Economics Division FAO, Rome, Italy
852 million people are chronically undernourished Countries in transition 28 Developed market economies 9 Sub-Saharan Africa 204 Near East and North Africa 39 Latin America and the Caribbean 53 Asia and the Pacific 519
Prevalence of undernourished varies among regions Percentage of population undernourished, by region, 2000-2002 % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Developing Countries Asia and the Pacific Latin America and the Caribbean Near East and North Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Countries in Transition
Per caput food production has increased steadily Per caput food production Index (1970 = 100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 04 World Developing Countries Developed Countries
MDG hunger goal does appear to be within reach Prevalence of undernourishment (%) 25 Year Sub- Sah. Africa N.East and N. Africa S. Asia E. Asia Lat. Amer. and Carib. 20 1990-92 35 8 26 16 13 15 Estimate 2000-02 33 10 22 11 10 10 5 MDG Target 2015 23 7 12 6 6 0 1990-92 2000-02 2015 MDG 18 4 13 8 7 Developing World
Progress towards the WFS target is too slow Number of undernourished (millions) 1000 800 600 400 200 MDG Target WFS Target Year 1990-92 2000-02 2015 Sub- Sah. Africa 168 204 205 N.East and N. Africa 25 39 37 S. Asia 289 301 195 E. Asia 275 217 135 Lat. Amer. and Carib. 59 53 40 0 1980-82 1995-97 2000-02 2015 WFS 84 12 144 137 30 Developing World
Lesson 1: Agricultural growth plays a critical role in enhancing food security and reducing poverty % undernourished Developing 34% or more 20 to 34% 5 to 19% 2.5 to 4% less than 2.5% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Ag GDP / Total GDP
Lesson 2: Hunger reduction is a prerequisite for fast development and poverty reduction Poverty and undernourishment % of the population living with< 1 US$/day (1995-2000) Poverty and undernourishment: trends <5 5-19 20-34 35 % of the population undernourished
Lesson 3: Technology can make a difference but under the right conditions World rice production and price (constant US$2002), 1961-2003 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 Production Price Metric tonnes 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 100 1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 Source: FAO/IRRI
Lesson 4: Trade can lead to substantial reductions in hunger and poverty Integration in agricultural trade and undernourishment Less than 2.5% 2.5 to 4% 5 to 19% 20 to 34% 35% or more 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Agricultural imports and exports as a share of agricultural GDP (%)
Lesson 5: Public investment fails to reflect the importance of agriculture % population undernourished Less than 2.5% 2.5 to 4% 5 to 19% 20 to 34% 1990-92 average 1996-98 (or most recent period for which data are available) 35% or more 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Agricultural orientation index
Lesson 6: Development assistance does not target the neediest countries External assistance to agriculture per ag. worker (1998 2000) % undernourished 35% or more 20 to 34% 5 to 19% less than 5% 0 5 10 15 20 25 US$/worker
Lesson 7: Peace and stability are sine qua non conditions for growth and poverty reduction October 2005 Civil strife or recent civil strife
Governance and Food Security
The changing world and persistent policy challenges Urbanization and the transformation of food markets Changing patterns of trade in food Resource use and resource degradation Harnessing science and technology for development
Designing a coherent agenda for hunger and poverty reduction Focus on the hotspots Focus on the long term while responding to immediate needs Enhance productivity of smallholder agriculture Seek complementarities between trade and domestic policy Increase effectiveness of Official Development Assistance
Designing a coherent agenda for hunger and poverty reduction Ensure complementarities of public resources, domestic and international Create en environment conductive to private investment Make PRSPs more inclusive in addressing food security and rural development Combine poverty reduction with increased provision of global public goods
Why Hunger not in the political agenda? associate hunger with emergencies, conflict and natural calamities ample global availability of food, combined with declining food prices economic model emphasizing growth and poverty reduction health and education services as the pillars of anti-poverty programmes
Why Hunger not high in the political agenda? poor record of past agricultural and integrated rural development programmes weak scientific evidence to be used for advocacy weak political voice of hungry ( rural populations in general) decentralization creates institutional vacuum on responsibilities. PRSPs hijacked by central ministries