Framing the Discussion Steve Specker President and CEO Electric Power Research Institute 21 Summer Seminar August 3, 21
7-9 Summer Seminars Prism / MERGE Roadmap for a low-carbon future Detailed analysis of the pathway to reducing CO 2 emissions across the electricity sector Provides guidance on the needed generation mix to slow, start and reverse CO 2 emissions Basis for new EPRI programs and demonstration projects Analysis to RD&D Actions 2
21 Summer Seminar...Prism 2. New Regional Economic Model Improved treatment of renewable energy High-resolution wind and solar resource data Full treatment of integration costs of variable generation Integrated biomass model with resource competition Expanded demand-side detail by region and technology Energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed resources Electric transportation and electro-technologies Full complement of environmental regulations The Next Generation of EPRI Analysis 3
Why Prism 2.? Huge Near-Term Potential Uneven Regional Distribution Requires Modeling Tool with Greater Spatial and Temporal Resolution 4
Regional Energy Potential Supply Curves 2 COE ($/MWh) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 Texas Mountain NW Central NW Central (47.4%) Mountain (18.5%) Texas (9.3%) NE Central (7.5%) SW Central (4.9%) Pacific (4.1%) Mid Atlantic (2.9%) California (2.7%) 2-5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Annual Energy () Uneven Regional Distribution. ~5% of Economic Resource in NW Central 5
National Energy Potential Supply Curve* Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 Delivered Cost with Existing Transmission Delivered Cost with New Transmission Transmission Line Miles Generation Cost 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 New Transmission Line Miles (thousands) $ 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 5, (million MWh) *EPRI AWS TruePower National Energy Supply Curve Huge Potential But Must Move it or Lose it 6
Taking Prism 2. for a Test Drive Details and timing of potential federal limits on GHG emissions remain unclear Without specifying a particular proposal or cap, we can simulate an aggressive policy with a rising CO 2 price: $2 $ per ton CO 2 $15 $1 $5 $ $3 Rising at 5% per year 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Achieves ~8% Economy-wide CO 2 Reduction by 25 7
Prism 2. Test Drive Generation Mix 6 5 4 3 2 1 Existing EE and Price Response New Nuclear Existing Nuclear -CCS New -CCS 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 AEO 21 Reference Case Energy Efficiency* Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) -CCS -CCS (New) CCS Retrofit * Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response 8
Prism 2. Test Drive Insights 21-225 6 5 4 3 2 1 EE and Price Response Existing Nuclear Efficiency and renewables grow Managed transition for existing coal fleet 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 AEO 21 Reference Case Energy Efficiency* Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) - CCS - CCS (New) CCS Retrofit * Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response 9
Prism 2. Test Drive Insights Post-225 6 5 4 3 2 1 growth slows Nuclear and CCS begin to expand EE and Price Response New Nuclear Existing Nuclear -CCS -CCS 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 AEO 21 Reference Case Energy Efficiency* Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) - CCS - CCS (New) CCS Retrofit * Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response 1
Prism 2. Test Drive Insights Regional Generation Mix -CCS (New) CCS Retrofit Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) -CCS Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro+ Imports Total Energy for Load (after EE) 2 15 1 EAST Import 2 15 WEST 2 15 MIDWEST 5 Nuclear New Nuclear -CCS 1 5 Geothermal Hydro+ -CCS 21 22 23 24 25 1 5 -CCS 21 22 23 24 25 2 15 1 21 22 23 24 25 SOUTH Import New Nuclear Responses to CO 2 policy differ greatly by region Nuclear 5 -CCS -CCS 21 22 23 24 25 11
21 Summer Seminar Focus on 21-225 6 5 4 3 2 1 EE and Price Response Existing Nuclear Efficiency and renewables grow Managed transition for existing coal fleet 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 AEO 21 Reference Case Energy Efficiency* Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) - CCS - CCS (New) CCS Retrofit * Includes new programs, technology, and behavioral price response 12
21 Summer Seminar Objective Provide a forum for objectively discussing and identifying the RD&D actions needed to address 21-225 technology deployment challenges 13