The Seventh Power Plan The Proposed Mix of Generation Resources and Strategies for the Region Northwest Hydroelectric Association 2015 Fall Regional Workshop Eugene, Oregon October 15, 2015
Outline 1. Power Plan in a Nutshell 2. Climate Change Data 3. Analysis and Key Findings 4. Physical Impacts of Climate Change 2
1. Power Plan in a Nutshell Scenarios/Sensitivity Studies Draft Plan Key Findings Resource Strategy: Key Elements 3
Scenarios/Sensitivity Studies Carbon policies: Existing policies High/Low sustained social cost of carbon Random future cost of carbon Maximum carbon reduction w/existing technologies Increased RPS requirements No demand response Increased market reliance Less available conservation Faster/Slower conservation deployment Planned/Unplanned loss of a major resource Sustained low gas and electricity prices 4
Draft Plan: Key Findings Least cost resource strategies rely on EE and DR to meet nearly all forecast growth in regional energy and capacity needs Winter capacity needs can be met with DR and/or with increased reliance on the market, depending on availability and cost To offset coal retirement, least cost strategies show an increased use of existing gas generation and limited development of new gas plants Least cost strategies also show a decrease in regional exports Regional compliance with EPA 111(d) CO2 emissions limits is attainable through resource strategies that are consistent with existing regional policies 5
Resource Strategy Elements Element 1. Energy Efficiency (amw) 1,400 by 2021 3,100 by 2026 4,500 by 2035 2. Demand Response Prepare to develop a significant amount by 2021 3. Renewable Resources Develop cost-effective resources now Higher RPS not needed to meet federal CO2 standards 4. Gas-Fired Resources Very Low probability of need by 2021 Low probability of need by 2026 Coal retirements offset by increased use of existing gas Individual utility circumstances may dictate development 5. Resource Utilization Improve scheduling and operating procedures to minimize need for balancing reserve resources 6. Expand Resource Alternatives Explore non-carbon emitting resources with dependable winter energy and capacity 7. Adaptive Management Plan must be flexible to change as the future unfolds 6
2. Climate Change Data 2014 IPCC AR5 Data Climate change analysis flowchart Climate-induced load changes Climate-induced natural flow changes 7
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 Assessment Report Completed in November 2014 Compilation of dozens of Global Circulation Model studies Temperature increase projections somewhat lower than the AR4 report Need downscaled temperature changes and climate adjusted natural flows Downscaled data not available until 2017 8
Climate Change Analysis Flowchart Global Circulation Models Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Impacts Group (and others) GENESYS and RPM Council River Management Joint Operating Committee Generation Regulated Flows Elevations Adequacy 9
Temperature-Precipitation Changes from Various Downscaled GCMs (IPCC 4 Data) change in Temp ( C) 2020s 14 5 101.40 1.20 9 BASIN_WIDE 1.80 1.60 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 3 13 18 6 16 15 4 28 1 mean annual 7 17 1211 Used case close to this one 0.00-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 change in Precip (mm) 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 10
Uncertainty in Projected GCM Temperature Change Bars For 2035, on the the right highest temperature show projection the range was used. of uncertainty for various For 2026, GCM a linear results interpolation was used to derive the temperature change. 1.5 C 2035 0.75 C 2026 2016 2026 2035 Source: IPCC AR5 Report (2014) 11
October November December January February March April May June July August September Load (amw) Change in Monthly Average Loads 1000 800 2026 2035 600 400 200 0-200 12
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Unregulated Flow (KCFS) Average Flows vs. Year-to-Year Variation 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Average Natural Flows in BOLD BLACK Average Climate Adjusted Flows in BOLD RED Year-to-Year variation far exceeds the climateinduced shift in the average 0 13
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma y Jun Jul Aug Sep Unregulated Flow (KCFS) 2045 Average Unregulated Flows 500 400 Historic CC Fit CC 300 200 100 0 14
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR1 APR2 MAY JUN JUL AUG1 AUG2 SEP Flow (cfs) Change in Unregulated Flows at The Dalles 40000 2026 2035 30000 20000 10000 0-10000 -20000-30000 15
3. Climate Change Analysis and Methodology Key Findings 2026 and 2035 Case Studies RPM Resource Builds Adequacy and Need for Additional Resources Key Findings 16
Methodology 1. Extract RPM resource builds for 2026 and 2035 for medium and high load futures 2. Use RPM loads and resources in GENESYS to assess adequacy (without climate change) 3. Apply climate induced changes to loads and unregulated flows 4. Reassess adequacy for 2026 and 2035 with climate change loads and flows 5. Determine if additional resources are needed in the climate change cases to maintain adequacy 17
Annual Load (Average Megawatts) 2026 and 2035 Cases Analyzed 32000 30000 28000 26000 2035 2026 Game 70 Game 781 Low Fcst High Fcst 24000 22000 20000 2035 Medium Load Case 0 5 10 15 20 Study Horizon Year 18
MW or amw RPM Resource Builds 5000 4000 EE is in Annual Average Energy (amw) Winter capacity contribution of EE is about two times the energy contribution 2026 2035 3000 All other resources are Installed Capacity (MW) 2000 1000 0 DR CCCT SCCT Solar Wind EE 19
Average Megawatts Adequacy and when Resources are Needed to Offset Climate Change 30000 28000 Annual Energy Load Forecast New Resources For Climate Change Needed With CC LOLP = 15% 26000 24000 22000 With CC LOLP < 5% With CC LOLP < 5% 20000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20
Climate Change Analysis Key Findings 1. Load Lower in winter Higher in summer 2. River Flows Higher in winter Lower in summer 3. Resource Acquisitions to offset climate change 2016 to 2026: None 2026 to 2035: Only when load > medium forecast 4. 2016-2021 Resource Strategy: No Change 5. Add Action Item: Continue to participate in climate change research 21
4. Physical Impacts of Climate Change Load/Resource Balance Regulated Flows Hydroelectric Generation Reservoir Storage 22
Climate Induced ENERGY L/R Balance Changes (amw) 2026 High Load Case 2035 High Load Case Winter Summer Winter Summer Hydro Generation 700-125 1,500-140 Load -20 400-40 750 Resource - Load 720-525 1,540-890 23
Climate Induced CAPACITY L/R Balance Changes (MW) 2026 High Load Case 2035 High Load Case Winter Summer Winter Summer Hydro Generation 700-100 1,500-100 Load -50 1,300-80 2,300 Resource - Load 750-1,400 1,580-2,400 24
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR1 APR2 MAY JUN JUL AUG1 AUG2 SEP Flow (cfs) Changes in Regulated 1 Flows at The Dalles 40000 30000 2026 2035 20000 10000 0-10000 1 Regulated flow are natural flows plus the drafting/filling actions at all upstream reservoirs 25
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR1 APR2 MAY JUN JUL AUG1 AUG2 SEP Average Megawatts Changes in Hydro Generation 2500 2000 2026 2035 1500 1000 500 0-500 26
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR1 APR2 MAY JUN JUL AUG1 AUG2 SEP Storage (KSFD) Change in End-of-Month Storage (Combined for Coulee, Horse, Libby, Dworshak) 300 200 2026 2035 100 0-100 -200 27