Continental Investment Plan for accelerating Rice Self- Sufficiency in Africa (CIPRiSSA): Ghana Consultative workshop on comparative rice competitiveness, AfricaRice, Abidjan 29 January - 01 February 2018
Rice in Ghana Rice in Ghana: the second most important food staple after maize Rice production in Ghana increased: from 250,000ton in 2006 to 641,000 ton in 2015 The yield varies around 2 to 3 ton/ha Ghana depends largely on imported rice to make up the deficit in rice supply: annual rice import is on average 400,000 tons. With a 15% average annual growth rate in rice production, Ghana can achieve rice selfsufficiency starting from 2024
Additional rice production requirements 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Rice, Production Milled Equivalent ('000000Mt) Rice, Food (Milled Equivalent) consumption ('000000Mt) Self suficiency ratio 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Figure 1: Milled Rice Production & consumption versus self-sufficiency in Ghana
Investments areas for Ghana Seed production/distribution Purchase and distribution of fertilizer to farmers Machines/equipment Technology transfer and capacity building on rice production Marketing and upgrading the rice value chain Irrigation scheme development Marketing and upgrading Machine/Equipment Tech. Trans & Capacity Building Fertilizer (including, packaging and distribution) Seed (Certfified and foundation) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Figure 2: Composition of New Non-Irrigation Investments Required for Ghana (US$ million)
Priority Investments Required for Ghana Investment without Additional irrigation (US$ Million) Investment in New Irrigation Schemes (US$ Million) Total investment requirement (US$ Million) 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Figure 3: Additional Irrigation and Non-Irrigation Investments Required for Ghana (US$ million)
Additional Irrigation Scheme Requirement 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 161 157 153 150 146 143 140 137 1.12 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.31 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Investment in New Irrigation Schemes (US$ Million) Total additional irrigation rice area (ha) 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 Figure 4: Additional Irrigated Rice Area (ha) vs. New Irrigation Investments in Ghana (US$ million)
Priority Investments Required for Ghana Total investment requirement (US$ Million) 36 Investment in New Irrigation Schemes (US$ Million) 10 Investment without Additional irrigation (US$ Million) 26 0 10 20 30 40 Figure 5: Total Irrigation and Non-Irrigation Investments Required for Ghana (US$ million)
Distribution of New Investments Needed for Ghana Investment without Additional irrigation (%) Investment in New Irrigation Schemes (%) 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 73% 73% 73% 73% 73% 73% 73% Figure 6: Additional irrigation and non-irrigation Investments Required for Ghana (%)
Distribution of New Investments Needed for Ghana Marketing and upgrading, 6% Machine/Equip ment, 22% Seed (Certfified and foundation), 20% Tech. Trans & Capacity Building, 15% Fertilizer (including, packaging and distribution), 36% Figure 7: New non-irrigation Investments for Ghana (%)
Foreign Exchange Savings (Reduced imports) 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.15 1.04 0.91 0.82 0.74 0.64 0.58 0.52 5.53 5.62 5.71 6.13 6.23 6.34 6.67 6.79 4.21 4.29 4.37 4.46 4.54 4.62 4.72 4.81 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total investment requirement (US$ Million) Estimated Foreign exchange savings (US$ Million) Self suficiency ratio 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Figure 8: Estimated Annual New Costs vs. Annual Foreign Exchange Savings (US$ million) and self-sufficiency
Rice area expansion Upland area Additional irrigated area Additional lowland area Substitute area 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 23.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 19.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 4.5 2018 2,019 2020 2,021 2022 2,023 2024 2,025 Total Figure 9: Rice area expansion per ecology ( 000 ha)
Expected additional production Rainfed upland Irrigated Rainfed lowland 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2018 2,019 2020 2,021 2022 2,023 2024 2,025 Figure 10: Expected additional production per ecology ('000 ton)
Investment gains Average annual production gain ('000tons) 16 Average Annual Foreign exchange savings (US$Million) 6 Total Expected additional Rice, Food (Milled Equivalent)('000tons) 129 Total Foreign exchange savings (US$Million) 49 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Figure 11: Expected gains from investments
Value chain actors benefiting from training 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Post harvest training 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 IRM training 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Radio-TV training 22.78 23.29 23.81 24.34 24.89 25.45 26.02 26.60 Video training 15.64 15.66 15.67 15.69 15.71 15.72 15.74 15.76 PLAR training 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Figure 12: Number of famers and other actors targeted in training ('000 persons)
Beneficiary households Total 197.17 Lowland farming 157.62 Irrigated farming 18.98 Upland rice farming 20.56 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 Figure 13: Number of beneficiary households targeted ('000 households)
Profitability of investments in rice Country Benefit-Cost Ration (BCR) Return on every US$1 invested Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) Ghana 2.65 2.65US$ 141.27%
Profitability of investments in rice 3.5 3.19 3 2.65 2.5 2 2.11 1.5 1 0.5 0 BCR (Price=540$/ton) BCR (Price=594$/ton) BCR (Price=486$/ton) Figure 14: Effect of Price variation on BCR
Profitability of investments in rice 60 50 48 40 40 30 31 20 10 0 NPV (Price=540$/ton) NPV(Price=594$/ton) NPV (Price=486$/ton) Figure 15: Effect of Price variation on NPV (US$ million)
Policy measures for CIPRiSSA Opportunities for a Public-Private-Producer Partnership Facilitate access and timeliness of quality inputs Allow private sector to lead distribution of inputs Develop appropriate contractual arrangements between inputs dealers and producers Facilitate access to credit Develop new irrigation schemes
Policy measures for CIPRiSSA Provide support to mechanization Develop and sustain extension services Strengthen capacity of NARIs Promote capacity of actors on marketing, labeling, branding
Thank you very much