OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2009-2009
The context Soaring energy prices to mid 2008, followed by a collapse what will it mean for demand? How will the financial crisis & economic slowdown affect energy demand & investment? Will economic worries divert attention from strategic energy security & environmental challenges? Are we setting ourselves up for a supply crunch once the economy is back on its feet? Will negotiators at COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009 have the political support needed to succeed?
World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario: thisisunsustainable! Mtoe 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas 6 000 Coal 4 000 2 000 Oil 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
The continuing importance of coal in world primaryenergy demand Mtoe 1 000 900 Increase in primary demand, 2000 2007 4.8% % = average annual rate of growth 100% Shares of incremental energy demand Reference Scenario, 2006 2030 Coal All other fuels 800 80% 700 600 60% 500 400 1.6% 26% 2.6% 40% 300 200 2.2% 20% 100 0 0.8% Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear 0% Non OECD OECD Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030
Share of renewables in electricity generation in the Reference Scenario OECD World Non OECD 2006 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030 Hydro Other (wind, solar, etc) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Soon after 2010, renewables become the 2 nd largest source of electricity behind coal, thanks to government support, prospects for higher fossil fuel prices & declining investment costs
Change in oil demand by region inthereference Scenario, 2007 2030 2030 OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Africa E. Europe/Eurasia Latin America Other Asia India Middle East China 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 mb/d All of the growth in oil demand comes from non OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East & India each about 20% & other emerging Asian economies most of the rest
Incremental world fossil fuel fuel productioninthereference in the Scenario mb/ /d 25 20 Bcm 1 600 1 400 1 200 Mtce 3 000 2 500 Non OECD OECD 15 1 000 2 000 800 1 500 10 5 600 400 200 1 000 500 0 1980 2007 2007 2030 1980 2006 2006 2030 1980 2006 2006 2030 200 Oil Gas Coal Almost all incremental oil & gas comes from non OECD regions, resulting in major structural changes to the industry with implications for global energy markets
Cumulative energy supply investment inthereference Scenario, 2007 2030 2030 Coal 3% $0.7 trillion Biofuels <1% $0.2 trillion Power Oil Gas 52% 24% 21% $13.6 trillion $6.3 trillion $5.5 5 trillion Transmission & distribution 50% Power generation 50% Shipping 4% Refining 16% Transmission & distribution 31% Exploration and development LNG chain 80% 8% Exploration & development 61% Shipping & ports 9% Mining 91% Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply crunch once the economy recovers
OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2009-2009
Regional trends in urbanisation Ur rbanisation ra te 100% 80% 60% 1980 2006 2030 40% 20% 0% OECD North America Latin America OECD Pacific OECD Europe Middle East E. Europe/ Eurasia Asia Africa According to UN projections, by 2030, cities will house 60% of the world s population equivalent to the total global population in 1986
World & city primary energy demand Mtoe 18 000 15 000 Non OECD OECD 12 000 9 000 6 000 3 000 0 Cities World Cities World Cities World 2006 2015 2030 Energy use in cities grows by 1.9% per year (versus 1.6% globally) between 2006 and 2030, pushing up their share of global energy demand from 67% to 73%
City CO 2 emissions Gigatonn nes 35 30 25 20 80% 78% 76% Non OECD cities OECD cities Share of cities in world (right axis) 15 74% 10 5 72% 0 2006 2020 2030 70% CO2 emissions from cities were 19.8 Gt in 2006 and rises to 30.8 Gt in 2030, increasing faster than global emissions.
Post-2012 2 climate-policy scenarios OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2009-2009
Energy related related CO 2 emissions inthereference Scenario Gigaton nnes 45 International marine bunkers 40 and aviation Non OECD gas 35 Non OECD oil 30 Non OECD coal 25 OECD gas OECD oil 20 OECD coal 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non OECD countries three quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
Reductions in energy related related CO 2 emissions in the climate policy scenarios s Gigatonne 45 40 35 550 450 Policy Scenario Policy Scenario 9% 14% 23% Nuclear CCS Renewables & biofuels Energy efficiency 30 54% 25 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissions reductions, efficiency gains and deployment of existing low carbon energy account for most of the savings
World energy related related CO 2 emissions in 2030 by scenario Gigatonne es 40 35 30 OECD 25 20 15 Non OECD World World 10 5 0 Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450 ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero
Key results of the post 2012 climate policy analysis 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario Corresponds to a c.3 C global temperature rise Corresponds to a c.2 C global temperature rise Energy demand continues to Energydemandgrows grows, buthalf expand, but fuel mix is markedly as fast as in Reference Scenario different Rapid deployment of low carbon CO 2 price inoecd countries technologies particularly CCS reaches $90/tonne in 2030 Big fall in non OECD emissions Additional investment equal to CO 2 price in 2030 reaches 0.25% of GDP $180/tonne Additional investment equal to 0.6% of GDP
OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2009-2009
Summary & conclusions Current energy trends are patently unsustainable socially, environmentally, economically Cities will be a key player in the energy debate of the future, both as a source of energy demand and as the site of efforts to reduce energy consumption and combat climate change. The present economic worries do not excuse back tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges