UNECE Expert Group on Resource Classification April, PDF Free Download

UNECE Expert Group on Resource Classification April, 216 Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology University of Texas at Austin

Framing Conundrum Many people do not know how electricity is made or where gasoline comes from... But you think you do!

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Outline Foundational Energies Alternative Energies Implications

Energy Security Affordable Available Reliable Sustainable Cost: per unit of energy Price Volatility: stable or fluctuating Infrastructure: cost to build the plant Access: substantial resources Intermittent: source consistent or variable Safe: natural/human causes Clean: air and atmospheric emissions Dense: land footprint Dry: fresh water use/risk

The Energy Mix U. S. Energy Flows (Quads/year) Petroleum 35 Biomass 4 Natural Gas 25 Transportation 27 Residential 11 29 Commercial 8 13 Energy Services 37 Coal 2 Nuclear 8 Geothermal.2 Hydro 3 Wind-Solar 1 Electricity Generation 39 Industrial 24 25.1 Waste Water Treatment 3 2 th Century Foundational Energies The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities, DOE, July, 214 QAe3712

Powder River Basin, WY Coal

Coal Parish Plant, TX

Security/Challenges Coal Affordable, Available, Reliable Mining Air and Atmosphere Mercury Water

1s BBls/Day Global Oil Production OECD Non-OECD 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Year 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Source: BP Statistical Review 212

1s Bbls/Day Global Oil Production OPEC Non-OPEC FSU 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Year Source: BP Statistical Review 212

1s Bbl Day Global Oil Production 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 214 34 BBY Source: BP Statistical Review 212

Production cost (28 $) 14 12 1 8 6 4 Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost EOR Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil Arctic Heavy oil & bitumen Global Consumption 34 Bby Oil shales Shale oil Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 2 Produced MENA 2 4 6 8 1, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Resources (billion barrels)

Production cost (28 $) 14 12 Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost Arctic Global Consumption 34 Bby 1 8 6 4 EOR Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil Heavy oil & bitumen Oil shales Shale oil Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 2 Produced MENA 2 4 6 8 1, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Resources (billion barrels)

Annual US Oil Production Thousand barrels/year From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 212

U.S shale liquids projected growth (Mbpd) 5 4 3 2 United States Consumption ~ 19 Mmbd 21 U.S. Shale Liquids 21 PROJECTION ~ 3.8 Mmbd from shale by 222 1% IRR: $68/bbl 1% IRR: $51/bbl 1% IRR: $5/bbl 1% IRR: $44/bbl 1% IRR: $5/bbl Monterey Woodford/Anadarko Utica Barnett Uinta Niobrara Permian Midland Permian Delaware Granite wash Eagle Ford 1 21 1% IRR: $44/bbl 212 214 216 218 22 222 Bakken After Morse et. al., 212, Energy 22: North America, the new Middle East: Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, figure 14, p. 17. IRR Source: Rystad Energy Actual Shale Oil: EIA QAe465

U.S shale liquids projected growth (Mbpd) 21 U.S. Shale Liquids 21 PROJECTION 5 4 3 2 Actual 1% IRR: $68/bbl 1% IRR: $51/bbl 1% IRR: $5/bbl 1% IRR: $44/bbl 1% IRR: $5/bbl Monterey Woodford/Anadarko Utica Barnett Uinta Niobrara Permian Midland Permian Delaware Granite wash Eagle Ford 1 21 1% IRR: $44/bbl 212 214 216 218 22 222 Bakken After Morse et. al., 212, Energy 22: North America, the new Middle East: Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, figure 14, p. 17. IRR Source: Rystad Energy Actual Shale Oil: EIA QAe465

Annual US Oil Production Thousand barrels/year Approaching 5% of U.S. Oil Production from Shale From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 212

Security/Challenges Petroleum Affordable, Available, Reliable Ultimately Nonrenewable Political Control Limited Air and Atmosphere Drilling and Water Transportation

Energy Security Challenges Transportation I. Biofuels II. o o o Scale, land use, water, cost Natural Gas (CNG, LPG, LNG, GTL) Available, affordable, reliable Dirtier than certain electric fuels III. Electricity IV. o o Benefits depend on fuel source Expensive, chemicals, range Hydrogen From Tinker et. al. 213, GSA Special Publication

The Future Transportation Mix 25 2 15 1 5 North America Diesel Gasoline Jet fuel Ethanol Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day Other Natural gas Fuel oil Biodiesel Europe Asia Pacific 2 22 24 2 22 24 2 22 24 ExxonMobil Corporation, 213 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24, page 2.

Outline Foundational Energies Alternative Energies Implications

BCF/Day 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. Global Natural Gas Production 5. Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific. 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Source: BP Statistical Review 212

BcF/Day Global Natural Gas Production 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. OECD Non-OECD 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Year 213 121 Tcfy Source: BP Statistical Review 212

Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water 15 1 5 Global Natural Gas Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour ~ 3 year total resource Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

Security/Challenges Natural Gas Affordable, Available, Reliable Ultimately Nonrenewable Political Control Limited Air and Atmosphere Drilling and Water Transportation

Energy Security Challenges Electricity I. Nuclear II. III. IV. o o o o o o o o Wind Solar Hydro V. Geothermal o o Efficient, no emissions, affordable generation Expensive to build, waste, safety Simple, affordable, no emissions Intermittent, land and visual, transmission Simple, no emissions, local Intermittent, land, transmission Efficient, affordable to generate, no emissions Water, land, drought Affordable where concentrated, no emissions Geology

Quadrillion Btu Quadrillion Btu 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Hydroelectric Power Consumption Wood Energy Consumption Waste Energy Consumption Biofuels Consumption 2 Wind Energy Consumption Geothermal Energy Consumption Solar/PV Energy 18Consumption 16 14 12 1 8 US Energy Mix Total Energy Consumed 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Imports 6 4 2 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review Nuclear Oil Natural Gas Coal

Power Density (w/m 2 ) Power Density, Capacity and Efficiency High Nuclear Hydrogen Natural Gas Oil CO 2 Emissions Solar Coal 2s 2s Lower Low Wind Waves/Tides Biomass Wood Hydro Low Capacity & Efficiency High 195s 19s 185s Higher

Power Density (w/m 2 ) Power Density, Capacity and Efficiency High Less Land Less Infrastructure More Efficient More Reliable Nuclear Hydrogen Natural Gas CO 2 Emissions Low Waves/Tides Solar Wind More Land More Infrastructure Less Efficient Less Reliable 2s 2s Lower Low Capacity & Efficiency High

Outline Foundational Energies Alternative Energies Implications

Global Consumption (Q) Global Consumption (Q) 8. 7. A Look at the Global Future 3% 6. 5% 6% 5. Petroleum Consumption Coal Consumption 45% 4. Natural Gas Consumption 3. 4% 7% Nuclear Electric Power Consumption 2. Hydroelectric Power Consumption 4% 35% 1. Biomass, Geothermal, Solar & Wind Consumption. 3% 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2. 1% 25% 2% 8% 15. 45 15% 6% 1. 1% 4% 5. 7 5% 2% 3 %. 2 % 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Tinker Scenario, 198 29 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Energy Mix 56 831 237 3 24 1 4,131 Hydro Nuclear Renew Petroleum 3,73 98 167 111 2,987 Coal Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Modified from: EIA Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent (212)

Energy Mix 191 99 156 27 57 468 117 82 3 24 1 267 88 517 975 1 5 376 371 78 289 64 1389 Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Petroleum 5 28 166 16 149 32 98 111 167 269 562 Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Modified from: EIA Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent (212)

Energy Demand 156 27 57 468 117 82 191 99 267 88 517 975 1 5 78 289 64 3 24 1 98 167 371 376 1389 Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Petroleum 5 16 6 28 16 3 2 14 9 111 269 562 Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Modified from: EIA Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent (212)

Energy Mix Trend 31% 28% 23% 38% 23% 32%

The Energy Mix Rest of World 12 1 Africa 8 6 Asia 4 2 195 197 199 21 23 25 27 21 Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

E E E The Three E Waltz Secure Energy Builds Healthy Economies Healthy Economics Invest in the Environment The Environment Depends on Secure Energy Secure Energy Today is ~ 85% Fossil Fuels

The Future Electricity Mix 12 North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe 12 12 Asia Pacific 1 8 1 Electricity Generation by Fuel 8 1 8 6 6 6 4 2 Oil Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas 198 25 23 4 2 198 25 23 4 2 198 25 23 ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

TWh The Future Electricity Mix 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Other fuel Other renewables Hydro conventional Nuclear Natural gas Coal US Electricity Generation Data: IEA

Million metric tons The Future Electricity Mix 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 U.S. First Quarter Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 QAe2823 Source: EIA

1,, 9, The Future Electricity Mix EU Coal Consumption (1 tonnes) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 1995 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit Year

1,1, 1,5, The Future Electricity Mix European Coal Consumption (Short Tons) 3, 1,, 25, 95, 9, Source: EIA, 215 Year Germany Europe 28 29 21 211 212 2,

The Future Electricity Mix Country/ area China India Russia Japan Canada UK Germany Europe US Energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions by geography, and net change since 25 211 emissions 8715 million metric tons 1726 1788 1181 553 497 748 435 5491-59 -37-61 -71-86 -99 Net change in annual emissions from 25 to 211, million metric tons 21 544 3252 Sources: US DOE, The Wall Street Journal

The Future Electricity Mix 5 4 3 2 1 8 Average national electricity prices (in 211 US cents/kwh) Data: average prices from 211 converted at mean exchange rate for that year 8 1 1 1 11 12 17 18 19 2 26 28 29 3 35 41 India Canada Mexico China S. Africa France Nigeria Brazil USA Russia Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com UK Japan Italy Australia Spain Germany Denmark

Quadrillion Btu 2 US Efficiency 18 16 14 12 Growth.55% less than GDP 8 Quads Efficiency 1 8 Total Energy Consumed Imports 6 4 2 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review Nuclear Oil Natural Gas Coal

Efficiency Reduces Demand Benefits Save energy Lower emissions Less water Less infrastructure Less land Save $ Challenges Incentivize producers to produce less Expensive to install Requires a cultural change

TPER per capita Human Implications 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, TPER = Total Primary Energy Requirement. Energy needed to facilitate Total Final Consumption (TFC does not include conversion and transmission losses). Australia United States 4, 3, 2, 1, World China India After: Rice World Gas Trade Model Medlock, 212 Korea Brazil 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, 4, 45, GDP per capita Japan QAe963

TPER per capita Human Implications 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, TPER = Total Primary Energy Requirement. Energy needed to facilitate Total Final Consumption (TFC does not include conversion and transmission losses). Australia United States 4, 3, 2, 1, World China ~3 billion people India After: Rice World Gas Trade Model Medlock, 212 Korea Brazil 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, 4, 45, GDP per capita Japan QAe963

TPER per capita Human Implications of Energy 9, 8, 7, 6, TPER = Total Primary Energy Requirement. Energy needed to facilitate Total Final Consumption (TFC does not include conversion and transmission losses). Australia United States 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, World China India After: Rice World Gas Trade Model Medlock, 212 Korea Brazil 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, 4, 45, GDP per capita Japan QAe963

TPER per capita Human Implications of Energy 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, TPER = Total Primary Energy Requirement. Energy needed to facilitate Total Final Consumption (TFC does not include conversion and transmission losses). Food Housing Clothing World Education China ~3 billion Healthcare Electricity people India After: Rice World Gas Trade Model Medlock, 212 Developing Nations Korea Brazil Balance of Trade Exports Imports GDP per capita Developed Nations Regulation and Planning Infrastructure Resources Permitting Australia Emissions, Japan Climate, Environment Energy Security United States 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, 4, 45, QAe963

Environment Economy The Radical Middle Energy Source: Tinker, EARTH, 213

Academia/NGO Government The Radical Middle Industry Source: Tinker, EARTH, 213

Tinker s Switch Take Away s The scale of energy is hard to comprehend. Oil and coal are difficult to replace. Natural gas and nuclear are scalable and cleaner. Renewables remain regional supplements. Energy efficiency is underappreciated. Energy security dictates the energy mix. We must all play a role in the Radical Middle.

UNECE Expert Group on Resource Classification April, 2016