OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries United Nations Economic Commission for Europe The Latest Developments of Natural Gas Industry in the Arab Countries & Potential Impacts on Europe Gas Industries Expert OAPEC
Agenda 1 2 3 4 5 Page 2
OAPEC IN BRIEF ~55% of the World s Total Reserves 27% of the World s Total Reserves Transport, Shipbuilding, Investment & Petroleum Services 32% of the World s Total Oil/NGL Production ~15% of the World s Total Gas Production Page 3
Natural Gas in the Arab Countries Proven Gas Reserves at 1 st January 2016 North America 13.1 tcm Middle East 79.2 tcm Europe/Eurasia 70 tcm S.America 7.6 tcm Africa 14.4 tcm Arab Countries Asia Pacific 15.4 tcm World s Total Proven Gas Reserves 199.7 tcm 54.5 tcm Source :OAPEC, Cedigaz, BP Page 4
Natural Gas in the Arab Countries Distribution of Proven Gas Reserves Egypt 4% Iraq 7% Algeria 8% Kuwait 3% Libya 3% Others 3% Qatar 45% Qatar 24.4 tcm KSA 8.6 tcm 1 2 11% Saudi Arabia 16% 6.1 tcm 3 Algeria 4.5 tcm 4 Source :OAPEC Total Reserves 54.5 tcm Iraq 3.7 tcm 5 Page 5
bcm Natural Gas in the Arab Countries Developments of Natural Gas Production and Consumption 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Development of Natural Gas Production & Consumption 360 244 Surplus 542 384 The highest growth rate worldwide Gas Production CAGR (2005-2015) 15.5% of world s total gas production The 2 nd highest growth rate worldwide Gas Consumption CAGR (2005-2015) Source :OAPEC Production Consumption 11% of world s total gas consumption Gas in Primary Energy mix Electricity of total gas consumption Page 6
Current Trends of Gas Trade in the Arab countries Development of Natural Gas Exports Intra-Trade 47% Americas 2% Middle East 5% Destination of Arab Gas Pipeline Exports Europe 53% Europe 29% Main Markets of Arab Exports Asia 64% Pipelines 26% Arab Countries 18.5% Piped gas exports to Europe What about Europe? 2015 74% Others 81.5% 2015 exports to Europe Page 7
Current Trends of Gas Trade in the Arab countries Development of Gas Imports by Pipelines and FSRUs bcm 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Development of Natural Gas Imports in the Arab Countries 4 24 24 22 23 23 24 1 3 5 5 3 5 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Pipelines imports imports 24 12 2015 FSRU 5.2 bcm/y 2009 FSRU 7.8 bcm/y Jordan Egypt 2016 FSRU 7.1 bcm/y Kuwait Extraregional 16% Intatrade () 18% Intra-trade Intatrade (Pipelines) 66% 2015 2015 FSRU FSRU 7.8 bcm/y 5.2 bcm/y 2015 FSRU 8.2 bcm/y 2010 FSRU 4.9 bcm/y *FSRU: floating storage and re-gasification unit Page 8
Prospects of Natural Gas Industry in the Arab Countries Production Development Projects (2016-2021) KSA Wasit Mega Project, 2016 Fadhili Mega Project, 2019 Egypt WND Project, 2017 Zohr Mega Project, 2017 Atol Project, 2018 Algeria 8 Project, 2016-2019 Qatar Barzan Project, 2017 bcm/y 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25.8 25.8 3.1 28 12.4 3.6 14.2 1.4 4.0 1.8 3.0 4.4 14.5 5.2 5.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 KSA Egypt Algeria Qatar Oman Kuwait Tunisia Source :OAPEC 1.8 Shah phase 2, 2020 Bab Project, 2020 Oman Block-62, 2016 Khazzan 1& 2, 2020 Kuwait Jurassic Project, 2021 Tunisia Nawara Project, 2017 Page 9
Prospects of Natural Gas Industry in the Arab Countries Gas Import Projects Iraq Jordan Lebanon Sharqa Bahrain Oman Fujairah Kuwait Morocco Gas Pipeline to import gas from Iran Gas pipeline to import gas from Tamar field Terminal (Floating ) terminal (floating) terminal (FSU) Gas Pipeline to import gas from Iran terminal (Fixed) at Al Fujairah terminal (Fixed) at Ras Al Azor terminal (Fixed) at Jorf Asfar 8.8 bcm/y 0.1 bcm/y 5.2 bcm/y 5.2 bcm/y 4.1 bcm/y 10 bcm/y 12.3 bcm/y 15.5 bcm/y 7 bcm/y 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2021 2025 Page 10
Focus on the European Market Production, Consumption and Extra-regional Imports 600 500 Deveopment of gas production and net imports (bcm) 52% 50% Algeria & Qatar () 8% European gas supply in 2015 Others () 2% 400 300 Net Imports 48.5% 48% 46% Alegria & Libya (Pipeline) 6% 200 100 0 44.2% Production 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 44% 42% 40% C. Asia (Pipeline) 3% Russia (Pipeline) 31% Production 50% Production Net Imports % Dependence Supply is defined as production plus extra-regional imports 8% 1 Production Growth Rate Consumption Growth Rate Arab Countries % in Euro Supply 6% Pipelines 2 Page 11
Focus on the European Market European Gas Outlook 482 European Gas Outlook (bcm) 510 510 Production and Demand Continuous decline of indigenous gas production while demand is stable at 510 bcm/y 248 225 169 2015 2020 2035-234 -293-353 Net Extra-regional Imports Higher dependence on imports ( and Pipelines) to meet the forecasted demand Production Demand Extra-regional Imports Source: Cedigaz 49% 2015 57% 2020 70% 2035 Share of Imports Expected higher share of to enhance diversification and security of supply 26% Page 12
Focus on the European Market Boosting exports to Europe % operating capacity of plants and export gas lines to Europe in 2015 Pipelines 0% Egypt Italy Algeria 48% 23% Yemen Spain Libya Algeria 59% 42% Algeria Libya Egypt 73% Oman 98% 100% Qatar Boosting Exports to Europe Existing export infrastructure is working under capacity Upon completion of gas development projects, it is possible to boost gas exports from 2015 levels Page 13
Conclusions 27.3% Share of Arab Countries in World s Gas Reserves The Arab region represents 15.5% and 11% of the world s total gas production and consumption respectively 49% Share of Gas in the Arab Energy Mix Primary energy mix in the Arab countries is dominated by fossil fuels (49.3% oil, 49% gas, 1.1% Coal ). 7 FSRUs in the Arab region In Dubai, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Jordan & Egypt. Further 6 terminals are planned to start in the medium term to meet the soaring demand on gas. 21 Gas Development Projects are planned to start in (2016-2021) with total production capacity of 200 bcm/y and total investments of $ 120 billion. 14% Share of Arab Gas Exports in European Supply There is a high potential to increase in the future upon the completion of the planned gas development projects in many Arab countries. Page 14
Questions? 11 12 1 10 2 9 3 8 4 7 6 5 Eng.Wael A.Moati Gas Industries Expert, OAPEC Whamed_eng@oapecorg.org Page 15