Sco$ Brown presenta/on Oct. 8, 214 Marketing Opportunities for AI Bred Heifers and AI Sired Progeny October 8, 214 Applied Reproductive Strategies in Beef Cattle Stillwater, OK Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu Before Digging Into AI Value In today s market, everything works! Record cattle prices Much lower feed costs We need to focus on the future We won t have record cattle prices forever Feed costs will rise with the next drought Given today s record cow-calf returns Cattlemen must address future lower returns Better genetics could be one risk reducing alternative JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head 14 U.S. Calf Crop Mil. Head 55 13 12 11 1 9 214 = 87.7 Million Head -1.8 Percent 5 45 4 35 8 19541959196419691974197919841989199419992429214 Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-1 Data Source: USDA-NASS 1/31/14 3 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 213 $ Per Cow 5 4 3 2 1 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual You Need To Start With Projected Cattle Prices Given today s market, looking forward is a tough business University of Missouri, August 214 baseline prices used here today These WILL be wrong However, looking backwards is not useful Use this as a baseline to compare alternatives - 1 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 9/1/14 ARSBC 214 1
Sco$ Brown presenta/on Oct. 8, 214 Dollars per Cwt. 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 Cattle Prices 9 7 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 OKC Feeder Steers Fed Steers Net Present Value Approach To Bred Heifer Values Assumptions Future input and output prices Discount rate Calving success Bred heifer loan assumptions Output Return on investment Breakeven price http://beef.missouri.edu/tools/index.htm Cumulative Net Present Value of the Bred Heifer Investment 3,5 Bred Heifer Value to Make NPV= 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 3,5 3,5 Bred Heifer Value to Make NPV= 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Bred Heifer Value to Make NPV= 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Lose Year 2 Calf Lose Year 2 Calf Lose Year 6 Calf ARSBC 214 2
Sco$ Brown presenta/on Oct. 8, 214 The Missouri SHOW-ME-SELECT Replacement Heifer Program Bred Heifer Value to Make NPV= 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Lose Year 2 Calf Lose Year 6 Calf 1% Higher Feeder Cattle Prices SHOW-ME-SELECTTM ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND IMPACTS SHOW-ME-SELECT Accomplishments and Impacts First statewide, on-farm beef heifer development and marketing program in the nation Since 1997 776 farms 243 veterinarians 115,597 heifers enrolled 1 regional livestock coordinators 17 regional livestock specialists Contributed > $75 M to Missouri s economy Producers are utilizing available technologies for on-farm heifer development that are now spilling over into the cowherd Increased interest & adoption of estrus synchronization and AI Successful application Differential in sale prices A growing interest in expanded use of AI to the entire herd Reproductive management Genetic improvement Use and application of what we know to create knowledge SHOW-ME-SELECTTM ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND IMPACTS Show-Me-Select Bred Heifer Values 2,5 $47 128 sales at 1 locations 27,361 heifers sold $34,336,25 in gross sales 9,32 prospective buyers > 7 out of state 3,11 successful buyers The marketing component 2, $276 $232 Tier One- AI Tier Two - NS 1,5 1, 5 > 2 out of state 18 states Tier One - NS Tier Two - AI Fall 21 through Spring 214 Sales ARSBC 214 3
Sco$ Brown presenta/on Oct. 8, 214 Show-Me-Select Bred Heifer Values Work Underway At Missouri 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $276 $232 Oklahoma City Bred Heifer Values $47 Master s Thesis Jillian Steiner Demand Estimation by Quality Grade 25 213 monthly Assumptions Loads translate into consumption Wholesale prices by quality reflect consumer prices Tier One - NS Tier One- AI Tier Two - NS Tier Two - AI Fall 21 through Spring 214 Sales Boxed Beef Prices Demand Estimation By Quality Grade Dollars per Cwt. 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Prime Choice Select Prime.6985-2.33 1.53 1.18.21 1.34.16-4.36 1.7 1.34.68.78 6.44 Branded/Choice.6451.25-1.4.22.23.3.7.7-1.73.37 1.13.2 3.99 Select.7398.3.13-1.24.3 1.26 -.5.84.22-2.13 1.46 1.12-3.2 MU Thompson Research Center A focus on better genetics by Dr. David Patterson Higher accuracy AI studs used Research on FTAI protocols Steers have been fed in Kansas Data on profitability Multiple years What do you see in these cows? Thompson Steer Profitability Of Feeding Over Selling As Calves Dollars per head 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 1 51 11 151 21 251 31 351 Steers Steer calves born 28 through 212 ARSBC 214 4
Sco$ Brown presenta/on Oct. 8, 214 Does Quality Affect Profitability? Let s Tie Everything Back Together Index; 1 = average 1.1 1.5 1..95.9.85.8 Select Choice Prime Academic approach to bred heifer valuation Net Present Value of future earnings stream Approach using today s information suggests heifers that calve every year are worth $5 to $1, more than heifers that lose one calf Selling calves for above average market values adds $591 to the bred heifer These values frame the added value from an AI approach that increases genetics more quickly No certainty here but there is the ability to increase quality grade, feed efficiency and reduce calf loss Let s Tie Everything Back Together Summary Real world data Thompson steers had average profitability increase of $125 over a period of time of tough feeding with record feed costs SMS bred heifer sales show differences between value of NS and AI bred heifers as well as higher accuracy sires. A $8 spread between the highest quality SMS bred heifers and Oklahoma City bred heifer values Academic approaches show the value of better genetics Real world data also show the added value available through the use of better genetics Record profitability in the cattle industry! NOW is the time to invest for the longer term Cattle prices will not remain at record levels The use of AI may provide cow-calf producers with a great long-term risk mitigation strategy ARSBC 214 5