DIRECT MAIL TRENDS IN EUROPE Dr Sean Smyth
Not another talk on Direct Mail Oh No!
AGENDA The European advertising market Mail volumes addressed and door drops European direct mail print projections DM as part of Customer Communications Management DM drivers DM technology DM ROI
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Dr Sean Smyth Printing technologist (Rexam BroadPrint, Causton & McCorquodale Envelopes) Smithers Pira consultant and analyst Research and author Future of Global Print Markets to 2020 Journalist: Smithers Pira; WhatTheyThink; FlexoTech; Digital Labels & Packaging; RadTech; Ink World; PIA Non-exec Director at printing companies REAL Digital International
Make sure you get the right recipient One of the reasons for falling volumes do get the salutation right!
E-commerce A death-knell for DM?
Direct Mail Definitions Part of advertising mix Addressed personalised communication, mailed to recipient who has not requested the item Smithers Pira data Some also include unaddressed advertising door drops, etc. Competing with TV; Newspaper; Magazine; Radio; Outdoor; PoS; Internet and Mobile Part of the Customer Communication Management Along with On-line; e-mail; SMS text; social media
Direct Mail printing market data Constant 2015 value in compare regions, real changes excluding currency fluctuation and exchange rate variation Value of printed products from print supplier includes paper, design & prepress, data analytics where provided by print company does NOT include postage Printed volumes, equivalent A4 single prints, there is overprinting
Addressed advertising mail UPU, Smithers Pira seaninprint CAGR (%), Million 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142011-2014 Austria 702 692 690 635 581-5.7 Belgium 632 620 598 575 550-3.9 Bulgaria 15 9 4 5 6-11.8 Croatia 40 39 32 30 24-15.3 Cyprus 1 1 1 1 1-6.6 Czech Rep. 174 174 165 146 146-5.7 Denmark 109 96 85 75 67-11.4 Estonia 11 13 12 11 11-6.2 Finland 265 266 262 243 220-6.1 France 4,312 4,238 3,904 3,618 3,230-8.7 Germany 6,074 6,123 5,869 5,470 5,129-5.7 Greece 62 50 45 39 39-8.2 Hungary 25 37 36 48 59 17.5 Ireland 28 23 21 20 17-10.2 Italy 1,142 1,139 930 812 770-12.2 Latvia 5 4 3 3 4 1.9 Lithuania 3 3 3 2 2-14.6 Luxembourg 33 33 32 32 32-1.5 Malta 1 1 0 1 1-9.4 Netherlands 1,180 1,095 997 848 757-11.6 Norway 381 391 372 360 347-3.9 Poland 144 133 122 164 204 15.3 Portugal 135 120 101 87 76-14.3 Romania 9 7 5 4 3-22.9 Slovakia 30 26 22 23 42 17.3 Slovenia 77 78 73 65 67-5.2 Spain 773 712 640 577 545-8.5 Sweden 388 375 357 345 333-3.9 Switzerland 1,107 1,077 1,101 1,094 1,087 0.3 UK 5,536 5,242 5,078 4,667 4,603-4.2 Total 23,397 22,818 21,560 20,003 18,953-6.0
Door drop volumes Smithers Pira, UPU/ELMA Weekly Door seaninprint drops Households CAGR drops (%), per Country (million) 2010 2011 2012 2012 2014 2013 (million) 20142011-2014 household Austria 3,800 3,600 3,316 3,032-7.2 Belgium Germany 19,901 88125,00085028,802 742 68130.7-8.218 Bulgaria France 19,109 9523,1998120,96461 2923.6-32.917 Croatia 28 44 59 67 34.0 Netherlands 11,584 10,911 10,938 5.8 36 Cyprus 7 4 3 3-29.6 Czech Italy Rep. 7,921 1,75711,970 1,903 8,203 1,954 1,67526.2-1.6 6 Denmark UK 7,822 1,319 7,097 1,163 6,016 1,036 91728.8-11.4 4 Estonia 148 162 193 199 10.5 Belgium 5,149 4,661 4,557 4.4 20 Finland 848 1,031 1,188 791-2.3 France Austria 4,257 6,355 4,237 5,733 4,193 5,313 4,743 3.1-9.326 Germany Spain 4,851 4,105 3,919 4,197 3,646 4,281 4,39411.7 2.3 6 Greece Poland 3,663 6 3,708 5 3,646 5 5 14.0-8.2 5 Hungary 625 784 800 810 9.0 Ireland Sweden 3,168 123 2,860140 2,734 164 159 3.1 8.917 Italy Hungary 3,960 616 2,542535 2,734 500 479 4.4-8.012 Latvia Czech Rep. 3,861 99 3,814n/a 88 44 n/a 36 n/a -28.4 Lithuania 104 74 77 72-11.5 Denmark 2,970 2,542 2,188 1.8 23 Luxembourg 48 44 53 42-4.0 Malta Norway 2,178 20 2,01324 1,82328 32 1.1 17.931 Netherlands 12,000 11,000 9,000 7,900-13.0 Switzerland 1,188 1,801 1,823 1.8 19 Norway 2,050 1,951 1,889 1,822-3.9 Poland Finland 1,782 268 2,013284 1,641 296 248 2.1-2.615 Portugal Slovakia 0 541 1,377517 1,458 529 508 2.2-2.113 Romania Portugal 1,683 12 1,58950 1,27651 79 3.5 84.8 7 Slovakia 168 181 273 271 17.3 Slovenia Greece 1,089 651 953n/a 599 574 n/a 583 n/a -3.6 Spain Romania 891 2,523 742 2,354 8,203 2,294 2,19178.7-4.6 2 Sweden Croatia 0 1,967 636 1,872 729 1,812 1,748 1.3-3.911 Switzerland 1,257 1,902 1,934 1,990 16.5 Ireland 111 140 159 1.5 2 UK 3,474 4,010 3,769 3,738 2.5 Total above 107,14145,896 117,725 45,182 115,732 42,237 39,243 249.8-5.1 9
Mail volumes UPU
European direct mail printing
DM drivers Its all about responses and returns ROI = new customers, increased customer loyalty, greater lifetime value Better targeting Better analytics Better design Better offers End-user preferences and experiences Multi-channel - Mobile Cost data, printing, postage Measurable returns Better customer communication management
European postage rates Deutsche Post Letter Prices in Europe, March 2017
Changing print methods
Changing DM technology
White paper solutions Flexible design full variability = more targeted offer Single pass, no stock reels with associated waste and potential redundancy Easier than litho printing with continuous toner lettershop Lower cost (dependent on run length and ink coverage) Mailing flexibility mix jobs in software to minimise residuals
Single piece mailers Lower cost than lettershop and inserting No matching problems Simpler product but can be sophisticated paper engineering Generally lower responses Stable volumes growing market share
Multi-channel marketing The reality Agencies focus on new, hi-tech marketing Millennials are digital, connected world natives E-mail is very low cost low responses can pay Much development work in targeted on-line ads Loyalty through facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. Many apocryphal claims of high responses through co-ordinated multi-channel approaches BEWARE THE CLAIMS! Some agencies have few print skills they need help
Times change, of course 2000 2017
On-line has issues
Do Your Customers Know This?
Good content works Make it relevant to the recipient Make it engaging Make it interesting Make it intriguing Don t send to the wrong people
Innovation in Direct Mail Is anything new after many, many years of DM? Don t repeat the same errors Be bold delight your customers I want 150,000 mailers for a new car launch How would you do it? maybe like Classic Color, ($10m t/o print Co in Chicago)
Outlook for direct mail in Europe Continuing falls in volume going forward Growth in value to the provider partially by new services: Big Data and analytics Better targeting Better, flexible design Minimising postage cost (maximising discounts) Multi-channel campaigns Demonstrate the ROI boost responses and ROI
Thank you for your attention Dr Sean Smyth Print Consultant Smithers Pira Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU UK Phone: +44 1372 802113 ssmyth@smithers.com www. seaninprint