The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends Fridolin Krausmann H. Haberl, K.H. Erb, C. Lauk, C. Plutzar, J. K. Steinberger, C. Müller, A. Bondeau et.al. Institute for Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universität Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Reasearch PIK Potsdam
Project Feeding and fuelling the world 2050 Goals: Understanding the interrelations between diet patterns, agriculture, bioenergy and climate change. (Deforestation was not considered!) Exploring the possibilities to meet global food demand in 2050 under different assumptions on Dietary patterns Expansion of cropland Changes in land use intensity/agricultural yields Changes in intensity and efficiency of livestock production systems Climate change Quantification of bioenergy potentials in 2050 We acknowledge the funding of this research by: FWF Austrian Science Fund, Compassion in World Farming, Friends of the Earth, UK
Eleven World Regions
Socio-ecological Characteristics of World regions
Biomass use (per capita) 2000 250 200 150 100 50 - N. Africa & W. Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Central Asia & GUS Eastern Asia Southern Asia South-Eastern Asia Northern America Latin America Western Europe Eastern Europe Oceania Export Industrial Wood Fuelwood (max) Other use Grazing incl residues and fodder Market feed Food(processing) Seed [GJ/cap]
- 60 50 40 30 20 10 Biomass use (per unit area) 2000 Export Industrial Wood Fuelwood (max) Other use Grazing incl residues and fodder Market feed Food(processing) Seed N. Africa & W. Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Central Asia & GUS Eastern Asia Southern Asia South-Eastern Asia Northern America Latin America Western Europe Eastern Europe Oceania [GJ/ha]
Solid empirical database for 2000: Three consistent datasets Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10x10 km) and statistical data at country level (cropland and woodlands according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA). Erb et al. 2007. J. Land Use Sci. 2, 191-224 Biomass balances at country level: Production and consumption of biomass by type (ca. 160 countries): Feed balances, processing losses, trade, trends 1960-2000. Krausmann et al. 2008. Ecol. Econ. 65, 471-487. HANPP: Global human appropriation of NPP, potential and actual NPP und Biomass harvest (5 min, 10x10 km) based on land use data set, FAO statistics and DGVM- Modellierung (LPJmL). Haberl et al., 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 12942-12947.
Biomass-Balance Model From final demand to land requirements - Crop products, forage and grazed biomass - Balance of supply and demand - Regional deficits balanced by trade - Evaluation of global balance
Diet patterns in 2000 and four scenarios for 2050
FAO-Prognosis: Area of crop production 16.000 14.000 12.000 Land use area [km²] 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 Other crops Vegetables and fruits Roots and tubers Pulses Sugar Oil bearing crops Cereals 2.000-1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 FAO 2006, World agriculture towards 2030/2050, Rome.
FAO Prognosis: Crop production 1960-2050 6,0 5,0 [million t dm/yr] 4,0 3,0 2,0 Other crops Vegetables and fruits Roots and tubers Pulses Sugar Oil bearing crops Cereals 1,0-1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 FAO 2006, World agriculture towards 2030/2050, Rome.
Scenarios of cropland expansion 2050
Crop yields 1960 to 2050: Three scenarios FAO Organic Intermediate
Mix of livestock production systems 2000 und 2050 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2050 Intensive 2050 Humane 2050 Organic Subsistence Market-oriented extensive Organic Humane Intensive
Conversion efficiencies livestock system 1960-2050 300 Ruminants 16 Monogastric 250 14 12 Input / Output 200 150 100 Input / Output 10 8 6 4 50 2-1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060-1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Calculation of Bioenergy Potential (Primary biomass!) Bioenergy from cropland: In case free cropland is available: Bioenergy potential = potential aboveground NPP. In case the demand for crop products exceeds supply by less than 5%: negative bioenergy potential is subtracted from the potential available on grassland. Bioenergy from grassland: Best grassland (category 1 out of four) is used more intensively. Grassland area in category 1 which becomes available by this measure is used for bioenergy production (aboveground NPP of act. vegetation). Bioenergy from crops residues: Requirements for feeding livestock and bedding are subtracted from available production. 50% of the reminder can be used for bioenergy production
Climate Impacts for Cropland Productivity (calculated with LPJmL) Table 1. Modelled climate impact on cropland yields in 2050 with and without CO 2 fertilization Mean yield change under climate change 2050 with CO 2 fertilization without CO 2 fertilization Northern Africa and Western Asia + 4.44 % - 8.65 % Sub-Saharan Africa + 8.46 % - 6.17 % Central Asia and Russian Federation + 24.91 % + 5.12 % Eastern Asia + 11.96 % - 3.90 % Southern Asia + 18.45 % - 15.61 % South-Eastern Asia + 28.22 % - 15.83 % Northern America + 12.45 % - 6.25 % Latin America & the Carribean + 12.39 % - 7.02 % Western Europe + 16.42 % + 2.04 % Eastern & South-Eastern Europe + 19.08 % - 0.66 % Oceania and Australia + 0.74 % - 16.02 % Source: Average of LPJmL model runs for 15 climate scenarios for 2050.
Results: Feasibility Analysis - Not feasible Probably feasible Feasible Highly feasible
Bioenergy potential 2050 in relation to diet assumptions (44 feasible scenarios) 200 180 Bioenergy potential [EJ/yr] 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Geometric mean Min Max 0 Western high meat (1) Current trend (12) Less meat (14) Fair less meat (17)
Components of Bioenergy Potential 2050 180 Bioenergy potential [EJ/yr] 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Primary biomass Residues Total 0 Western high meat Current trend Less meat Fair less meat
Regional distribution of bioenergy potential (Trend-scenario: Total of 105 EJ/yr) 30 25 20 Primary crops Residues 15 10 5 0 N Africa W Asia Sub-Saharan Africa C Asia, Russian Fed Eastern Asia Southern Asia South-Eastern Asia Northern America Latin America, Carribean Western Europe E & S-E Europe Oceania, Australia [EJ/yr]
Bioenergy potentials and climate impacts (Trend Scenario) 160 140 Bioenergy potential [EJ/yr] 120 100 80 60 40 Grazing land Cropland residues Cropland primary 20 - No climate change Including CO2 fertilization Excluding CO2 fertilization
Global Energy Flows: Overview Total terrestrial NPP Terrestrial aboveground NPP Human harvest (used and unused) 2.190 EJ/yr 1.240 EJ/yr 346 EJ/yr Fossil energy consumption Biomass for technical energy Global technical primary energy supply 453 EJ/yr 54 EJ/yr 551 EJ/yr Bioenergy potential, range var. estimates Bioenergy potential 2050, this study 33-1.290 EJ/yr 58-158 EJ/yr
Conclusions Feeding a growing world population is possible with ecologically sound agricultural production but only at a modest increase of the share of animal products in human diet. Dietary patterns matter: An increase in the share of animal products in human diets has far reaching implications: Need to intensify land use (yield increases, feeding efficiency) Expansion of cropland Bioenergy potential reduced Food security and bioenergy are possible without further deforestation. Bioenergy and globalisation: Largest bioenergy potentials in Subsaharan Africa and Latin America. Climate matters: Bioenergy potential strongly depends on diet patterns and climate impacts. The later are only poorly understood.
Report Eating the planet? online: http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/downloads/wp116_web.pdf
Data download http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm