Ag Statistics 101 Series Industry and Market Highlights............................... Webinar March 22, 2018, 9:00AM-10:30AM
Agenda Industry Highlights Eric Liu, Manitoba Agriculture Eric is Manger of Foresight and Analysis in the Department s Transformation branch. Since joining the department in 2006, he has played instrumental roles in developing strategies, programs and policies that boost Manitoba s low-carbon economy. Eric has Ph.D. degree in bioproduct processing and Project Management Professional (PMP) designation. New Models and Methods for Using Market Intelligence Bruce Burnett, Glacier Farm Media Currently the Director of Weather and Markets for Glacier Farm media, Bruce has been living and breathing Western Canadian agriculture for over 30 years. The combination of practical experience gained by growing up on a farm in western Manitoba and years of monitoring global weather and markets for the Canadian Wheat Board gives Bruce a unique perspective on the agricultural markets. His specialty is the analysis of weather conditions and their impact on global agricultural markets. Market Microstructure Dynamics in Agricultural Commodities Julieta Frank, University of Manitoba. Dr. Frank is Associate Professor with the Department of Agribusiness and Agricultural Economics. Her research are in the areas of price analysis, agricultural marketing, and risk management, specifically focused on futures markets, market microstructure and dynamics, and forecast evaluation. She has Ph.D. degree in Agricultural Economics from University of Illinois.
Industry Highlights Eric Liu, Manager, Foresight and Analysis (F&A) Transformation Branch, Manitoba Agriculture F&A Team Marni Donetz, Intelligence Specialist - Livestock David Simonot, Intelligence Specialist Crops Mengistu Wendimu, Intelligence Specialist Food and Agriproduct Processing Joe Chen, Junior Market Intelligence Specialist Mindy Tucker, Information Coordinator Meghan Kozuska, student Fariba Rad, student Jane Donetz, student (UofM collaborative)
Farm and Land in MB, 2016 14,791 farms in MB 18M acres of farm land in MB: o 12.8M acres crop land o 929K acres forages o 3.3M acres native pasture o 1.2M acres in other purposes (e.g. Christmas trees) $40B farm land and buildings
Processing Primary Economic Impacts of Ag in MB Dec 2016 GDP $1.92B 3.4% MB 2% YTY Dec 2017 Employment 24,000 3.7% MB -1% YTY Dec 2017 FCR $6.47B 9% YTY Dec 2017 Exports $3.24B 23.2% MB 9% YTY Dec 2016 GDP $1.14B 2.1% MB 4% YTY Dec 2017 Employment 12,800 2.0% MB 5.8% YTY Dec 2017 Sales $4.35B 23.8% MB 5.3% YTY Dec 2017 Exports $2.70B 19.3% MB 10.3% YTY
Agriculture in MB - Highlights 20,140 farm operators in Manitoba in 2016, with 23.8% women and average age of 53.8 years Farm cash receipts set record in 2017, surpassing $6B. Canola remained the leading field crop in Manitoba, followed by spring wheat and soybeans Canada s second largest potato-producing province The nation s largest producer of sunflower seed The largest pig producing province in Canada. The value of pig production in Manitoba is expected to surpass $1B in 2017 and 2018 Canada s third largest beef cow population The sheep flock grew 15% to 93,000 animals, the largest increase in Canada in 2017
MB Farm Cash Receipts ($k), 2016 Hens and chickens, $108,261, 2% Total eggs, $115,140, 2% Other livestock, Direct payments, $184,208, 3% $221,804, 4% Crops: $3.60b Livestock: $2.13b Direct payments: $0.22b Total FCR: $5.95b Dairy products, $252,249, 4% Cattle, $480,169, 8% Canola, $1,344,143, 23% Wheat ex durum, $866,829, 14% Hogs, $988,131, 17% Soybeans, $544,949, 9% Other crops, $375,257, 6% Oats, $110,507, 2% Corn, $123,536, 2% Potatoes, $233,087, 4% Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 002-0001 Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-01-16
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MB Farm Cash Receipts, 1971-2016 6,000 2017 Forecast 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 FCR Crops FCRLivestock Direct Payments Operating Expenses Net Cash Income Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 002-0001 and 002-0009 Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-01-16
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1400 MANITOBA FARM CASH RECEIPTS - TOP SIX CROPS BY FCR 2011-2017 (EST) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e Canola Wheat Soybeans Potatoes Corn Oats Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 002-0001 Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-03-15
New Forage Price Survey MANITOBA MARKETS FORAGE PRICES January 31, 2018 Manitoba Agriculture initiated a survey of Manitoba forage buyers and sellers to improve the availability of pricing information. The survey is conducted at intervals in fall, winter and spring to track prices during the periods of most active trade. Forage prices will vary depending on quality as well as local supply and demand conditions, so these survey prices aim to show the average value and track movement in overall price levels in Manitoba. Oct-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 ($/lb) ($/lb) ($/lb) ($/lb) Dairy Quality Alfalfa (RFV of 160 or greater) 0.070 na 0.079 0.068 Beef Quality Alfalfa (Less than 160 RFV) 0.038 0.041 0.043 0.041 Alfalfa/Grass Mix (50% alfalfa/50% brome or 65% alfalfa/35% timothy) 0.033 0.055 0.040 0.045 Tame Grass (75% or more of cultivated grass) 0.031 0.055 0.031 0.029 Straw (Cereal only) 0.020 na 0.024 0.026 Source: Manitoba Agriculture Manitoba Markets Index: http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/market-pricesand-statistics/livestock-statistics/index.html MANITOBA markets Oct-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 ($/metric tonne) ($/metric tonne) ($/metric tonne) Dairy Quality Alfalfa (RFV of 160 or greater) 154 na 174 149 Beef Quality Alfalfa (Less than 160 RFV) 84 89 95 91 Alfalfa/Grass Mix (50% alfalfa/50% brome or 65% alfalfa/35% timothy) 73 121 89 99 Tame Grass (75% or more of cultivated grass) 67 121 68 64 Straw (Cereal only) 45 na 53 57 ($/metric tonne) MANITOBA AREA AND PRODUCTION OF TAME HAY Seeded area (acres) Harvested area (acres) Average yield (metric tonnes per acre) Production (metric tonnes) 2000 2,170,000 2,070,000 1.38 2,857,600 2001 2,300,000 2,215,000 1.41 3,129,800 2002 2,325,000 2,050,000 1.06 2,177,200 2003 2,375,000 2,275,000 1.00 2,268,000 2004 2,400,000 2,250,000 1.55 3,492,700 2005 2,450,000 2,275,000 1.51 3,424,600 2006 2,468,146 2,350,000 1.49 3,492,700 2007 2,355,000 2,255,000 1.50 3,374,700 2008 2,240,000 1,890,000 1.68 3,166,100 2009 2,160,000 1,950,000 1.56 3,039,100 2010 2,040,000 1,755,000 1.73 3,039,100 2011 1,895,466 1,715,000 1.72 2,948,400 2012 1,845,000 1,750,000 1.50 2,617,200 2013 1,900,000 1,780,000 1.50 2,676,200 2014 1,930,000 1,765,000 1.64 2,903,000 2015 1,950,000 1,855,000 1.61 2,984,600 2016 1,935,000 1,790,000 1.84 3,302,200 2017 1,620,000 1,575,000 1.90 2,993,700 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM 001-0017 Manitoba produces almost three million metric tonnes of tame hay each year. Most hay produced in Manitoba goes to feed our livestock sector. This level of production has been relatively stable for a number of years, while the number of acres has been trending gradually lower. Some of Manitoba s hay also finds an export market in the U.S. as listed in the table below. MANITOBA EXPORTS OF ALFALFA AND HAY Price ($/metric tonne) 2017 (through Nov) 2016 Quantity (metric tonnes) Price ($/metric tonne) Quantity (metric tonnes) Alfalfa 208 7860 225 9435 Hay 167 1540 178 1553 Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, CATSNET Source: Manitoba Agriculture Manitoba Agriculture provides a listing service on its website to connect buyers and sellers of hay, pasture and feeds. Please visit https://web31.gov.mb.ca/haylistclntextrnl/. Foresight and Analysis, Manitoba Agriculture 809-401 York Avenue, Winnipeg MB R3C 0P8 1-204-945-3503, IndustryIntelligence@gov.mb.ca Other publications are available on the Agriculture Markets and Statistics page of Manitoba Agriculture.
Farm Cash Receipts ($millions) Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM,0002-0001 Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2017-12-06 Livestock FCR 1,200 Hogs Cattle and Calves Dairy Products Poultry and Eggs Other Sheep and Lambs 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
THOUSAND HEAD Growth in Livestock Industries in Manitoba 160 CHANGES IN HOG INVENTORIES BY PROVINCE, JANUARY 2017-2018 150.0 140 120 113.6 100 Total Hogs Sows and Gilts 80 70.0 60 40 20 0-20 -6.0-0.4 25.0 25.0 6.5 4.1 5.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 Atlantic Prov. QC ON MB SK AB BC PROVINCE Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 003-0100 Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-03-09
THOUSAND HEAD Growth in Livestock Industries in Manitoba CHANGES IN CATTLE INVENTORIES, JANUARY 2017-2018 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 Total Cattle Dairy Cows Beef Cows 25.0 23.4 20.6 17.1 15.0 15.0 9.4 10.1 10.0 10.0 5.2 5.5 4.2 2.3 2.2 2.7 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 Atlantic Prov. QC ON MB SK AB BC PROVINCE -19.5 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 003-0032 Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-03-09
Source: Industry Canada Trade Data Online Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2017-12-06 Agriculture and Agrifood Exports Computer & Appliance $365 3% Wood products, paper, furniture $604 4% Printing $112 1% Mining $384 3% Utilities $387 3% Other $852 6% Agriculture $2,967 22% Metal manufacturing $1,010 7% Machinery manufacturing $1,022 7% 2016 ($million) Food & beverage manufacturing $2,446 18% Transportation manufacturing $1,724 13% Petroleum & chemicals manufacturing $1,756 13%
MANITOBA EXPORTS BY INDUSTRY, MILLION DOLLARS, 2017 Others, $755, 5% Agriculture, $3,238, 23% Manufacturing, $9,325, 67% Mining (except Oil and Gas), $265, 2% Utilities, $420, 3% Total Exports = $14B Food and beverages, $2.7B, 19% (or 29% of Manufacturing) Source: Trade Data Online Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-03-21
MANITOBA AGRI-FOOD DOMESTIC EXPORTS - TOP 10 PRODUCTS BY VALUE IN 2017 9. Barley and Malt 83,200,896 1% 8. Total Live Cattle 89,457,085 1% 10. Dried Peas 78,877,151 1% Other Products 543,375,558 9% 2017 MB Total Agri-Food 7. Oats and Products 207,506,751 4% 1. Canola and Products 1,719,026,820 29% 6. Live Swine 241,394,666 4% 5. Soybeans and Products 447,531,617 8% 4. Potatoes and Products 459,580,224 8% 2. Pork and Products 1,034,190,966 18% 3. Wheat and Flour 990,841,407 17% Source: Statistics Canada, CATSNET Manitoba Agriculture, Foresight and Analysis, 2018-03-07
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