Energy Systems Institute, Irkutsk, Russia N.I.Voropai, S.V.Podkovalnikov, D.A.Sokolov Interconnections of Russia with countries of Northeast Asia in the framework of possible electricity unification The study is being conducted by Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences in collaboration with Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology and EN+ Group.
Projection of prospective electricity demand for Northeast Asia (NEA) countries and regions, TWh/year Electricity demand in the region is expected to grow more than twofold for the considered period. 2
Seasonal electric load profiles 100% 100% 97,1% 91,9% 91,7% 96,7% 96,0% 90,4% 91,7% 91,1% 88,7% 94,6% 93,5% 96,8% 95,1% 94,3% 91,9% 94,0% 89,9% 87,7% 81,3% 84,8% North China Northeast China Nortwest China Korea Mongolia Japan Siberia 80,9% 71,7% 65,5% Russian Far East Seasonal peak load 60,5% 60,00% Winter Spring Summer Autumn Seasonal load profiles are very divers. In some countries they come in summer in other in winter. 3
Daily electric load profiles (winter) 95% 85% 75% 65% Mongolia Korea North China Northeast China 55% Japan Siberia 45% Russian Far East 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 4 hours (GMT)
Daily electric load profiles (summer) 100% Mongolia Korea 90% North China Northeast China 80% Japan Siberia Russian Far East 70% 60% 50% 40% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 hours (GMT) Divers load profiles, both yearly and daily, result in large capacity saving and economic benefits in NEA region. This can be seen further. 5
Forecast of generating capacity expansion, GW 2000 1500 Russian Far East Siberia 1000 Mongolia Korea 500 Japan Northwest China 0 2010-2012 2015 2020 2030 2035 Northeast China North China Generating capacity in the region is expected to grow more than twofold for the considered period. 6
NEA generating capacity mix by type of power plants, 2010-2012 GW Hydro (conventional + pumped storage) 67 56 121 Thermal (steam turbine + combined cycle + cogeneration) Nuclear 650 Fossil fuel generating capacity is dominating in the capacity mix currently. Conventional hydro is ranked second. Renewables follow the nuclear. Renewables (wind + solar + geothermal) 7
NEA generating capacity mix by type of power plants, 2035 GW Hydro (conventional + pumped storage) 142 500 165 1177 Fossil fuel generating capacity is still dominating but its share in the capacity mix is decreasing for the considered period. Renewables are ranked second. Their capacity is supposed to grow swiftly. Thermal (steam turbine + combined cycle + cogeneration) Nuclear Renewables (wind + solar + geothermal) 8
Scheme for potential power system interconnections in Northeast Asia This scheme is modeled and studied. Considered were base case with no power system interconnections (as now) and case of full integration when no constrains are imposed on power flows among countries. Optimization expansion planning model ORIRES was applied for the study. 9
Benefits for the power system interconnection in NEA region The main benefits for the entire NEA power system interconnection were calculated as difference between the indexes for the base case and integration case. They are quite sufficient. For example, capacity saving benefit is equal to three quarter of the current generating capacity of Republic of Korea. 10
Benefits of Russia-China power system interconnection 20 18,7 18 16 14 14 12 10 8 6 5,3 4 2 0 Annuallized cost, $ Bln./year Capital cost, $ Bln. Installed capacity, GW Previously conducted studies for Russia-China, Russia-Korea and Russia-Japan power system interconnections confirm the obtained benefits for the entire NEA region. 11
Capacity benefit of Russia-Korea power system interconnection, GW Separate Operation of EPSs 5,6 26,8 Interconnection of EPSs 4,9 18,9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Russian Far East EPSs North Korean EPS South Korean EPS Capacity benefit for Russia-Korea power system interconnection is about 8 GW. 12
Economic benefit of Russia-Korea power system interconnection, GW Investments, Bln.$ 39 53,3 Annualized Cost, Bln.$/year 16,2 14,3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Interconnected EPSs Separate Operation of EPSs Investment saving benefit for the Russia-Korea power system interconnection is estimated to be about $14 Bln. 13
Russia-Japan power bridge benefits Capacity saving, GW 1,6 Investment saving, $Bln. 1 0 1 2 14
Conclusions Electricity interconnections in NEA region are supposed to bring about substantial benefits for countries participants Further more deep studies by international teams are needed 15